Josh Smith Meeting With Rockets Today

No

Milsap is maybe half the defense man and about the same scoring. Why is he better?

 

I imagine meeting - 'Oh Josh, there is a deal, if we don't sign Howard - we have some job offer for you.''. What else could they say to Smooth? It's worthless meeting. I mean, we better tank (not really, with that unite we could make PO again) this year than sign this guy and waste our cap space.

 

Milsap is much better offensively.

 

Will our chances increase if we already have a S&T in place for Josh?

 

No

No he isn't.

 

Asik can't guard 4's as well as JSmith. That's silly talk. Even if Howard and Asik played together, it would be Howard at the 4. But the thing about Smith's defense that is so lauded is not that he can defend big men in the post...it is that you can ALSO move him to defend PERIMETER players. That is really the crux of the matter here. Asik can't do that.

In clutch late game situations, we can put Smith to defend KD, Lebron, Melo, etc. We don't have someone who can do that now, Asik included.

Smith also runs the PnR better than Asik. He catches the ball better and unlike Asik, can also be the drive and kick player in the Rockets system as he is able to dish it out of the post or a drive. Asik can barely run, much less drive and kick. On the fastbreak, instead of a player like Asik lagging behind, Smith would be ahead of everyone to finish the transition play, above the rim style.

And saying "take only shots at the basket, defend, and rebound. well, that's basically what asik does" completely oversimplifies it. Hey, that's all Howard does too, but he's in a different class than Asik. Hm, that is sorta all Joakim Noah does too. Lebron? He just defends and scores and rebounds and assists. Isn't that basically what Parsons does?

Joking aside, Smith is a MUCH better finisher around the rim than Asik is. Last season, Smith converted 78% of his shots at the rim. Asik? 60.5%.

 

I like guys like Smith who can switch on P&R with the two and three guards and make them work to get good shots.

The Heat were so good defensively, because 2-4 were good enough to guard the 1-4 positions and make them work.

Thats why I have always been a fan of tweener 3/4 as they have the ability to guard multiple positions.

 

Because people are biased against JSmith. JSmith is better than Millsap, but the issue here is whether Millsap is better VALUE. There's the implicit assumption that Millsap will command much less than JSmith, and generally is seen as a harder worker/Rocket mentality. Millsap can do a good chunk of what Smith does and might cost significantly less to do it.

 

Just stop.

Josh Smith is a terrible offensive player and Milsap is quietly efficient and much more versatile. This isn't even debatable.

 

good post. ok i'm sold.

 

mmm I disagree that Smith is a terrible offensive player, but Millsap is quietly efficient and better than Smith generally on offense (mostly due to Smith's shot selection). I am not sure what you mean by Millsap being more versatile. If you mean overall, I disagree again because Smith is MUCH more versatile as he can play the 3 and the 4 and can defend both positions. Millsap can't. That's kinda a big deal when it comes to lineup flexibility.

 

even if we sign howard, i will take asik in pf over smith anyday.

 

aw man. please read my post that Fighton just quoted like a couple of posts before this one hahaha.

 

That's you opinion, but we know it's not Morey's. Morey has explicitly said he hates box scores and uses refined +/- stats. According to RAPM Smith is an elite player. In fact, he's just the kind of massively underrated value (if you read the opinions here on CF) that Morey loves.

 

*your

 

Yes

BS, Smith is a beast on the floor.He may not have the longer shot making than Milsap but he can be a nightmare closer to the basket. He will have actual talent on the Rockets to play off of now,

 

Everyone likes to focus on his lack of offense, (even though he can still be a productive offensive player with a teammate like Harden taking the ball-handling duties) and completely ignore how good he is defensively.

 

ok

Smith averaged about the same in scoring last year as Howard.

 

I have to agree w/ Lars on this one. I think Smith is a good player and would fit great on our team, esp. if we got Howard. Lars may disagree there, but his point that Millsap is a BETTER player OFFENSIVELY than JSmith? That sort of isn't debatable.

RAPM for last yr, ORating, Millsap had 2.2 while Smith had 1.3. This yr? Millsap's was 2.4 while Smith's was 0.8. Per 100 possessions, Millsap's basketball-reference ORating is 112. Smith's? 97 :X

Let's look at shot selection and conversion. Millsap has a TS% of 55% while Smith has 50%. So Millsap wins again. Now Smith does eclipse Millsap at the rim, w/ his ability to convert 78% of his shots there. Millsap though still converts a very good 69%. The real difference here is Millsap takes 4/11 of his shots here, while Smith only takes 5/16.

If we move out farther, Millsap and Smith are roughly comparable at 3-9 ft (38% vs. 39%), but Millsap starts to win at 10-15 and 16-23 ft (48% and 39% vs. Smith's 24% and 33%). From 3 pt range, Millsap's eFG (not FG%) is 47%...greater than Smith's eFG% from 3 pt range (at 45%). On offense, Millsap's offensive rebound rate is 8.5 vs. Smith's 5.8 (this is % of offensive rebounds grabbed while player is on the court).

So yes, without even once looking at the box scores, I can confidently say that Millsap is a better player offensively than JSmith, and much more efficient than JSmith.

BUT, if they were equal in cost, I would easily choose Smith over Millsap. Why? I think Smith's offensive skills fit on our team more. He's able to run the fastbreak and finish transition points better. He's better at the rim/above the rim. He can drive and kick much better than Millsap, and would have a better PnR system here w/ us. These things are not necessarily true for Millsap. Also, MOST IMPORTANTLY, Smith dominates Millsap on defense. Millsap is not BAD on defense -- he's above average -- but Smith is noticeably better and much more flexible, able to defend both the 3 and the 4.

Offensively though? Not too debatable.