Broussard: Howard 'very unlikely' to re-sign with the Lakers

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Lakers have been told they'll get to meet with Dwight Howard after he visits other teams. They'll get the last word...they hope.</p>&mdash; Mike Bresnahan (@Mike_Bresnahan) <a href="https://twitter.com/Mike_Bresnahan/statuses/350320439001743360">June 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
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Dissecting Dwight Howard's future

Spoiler

Might be time to take those billboards down.

Just a day after the Los Angeles Lakers hung up billboards around Hollywood begging Dwight Howard to stay, our own Chris Broussard reports that he's ready to leave. According to sources, there is "very little chance" that Howard re-signs with the Lakers when free agency opens on July 1, which means the All-Star center is willing to wave goodbye to the extra $30 million the Lakers can offer him. Word is that Howard didn't enjoy playing next to Kobe Bryant this past season and wants to play for a system that is more tailored to his talents. The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets, according to sources, have emerged as front-runners to land Howard.

I have a few thoughts on this, so let's get right into it, FAQ-style.

Is Phil Jackson on Line 1?

This is the first question that came to mind when reports of Howard's complaints about Mike D'Antoni's system came to light. It's no secret that Jackson -- who is engaged to Jeanie Buss, the Lakers' governor and executive vice president of basketball operations -- has been hanging out at the Lakers' facility recently, and general manager Mitch Kupchak freely admits that he regularly talks to Jackson about basketball matters.

That can't make D'Antoni feel all warm inside, especially with Thursday's report. It's not hard to see that Howard may be forcing the Lakers' hand to remove D'Antoni as coach and bring in Jackson's more structured triangle offense, which brought Shaquille O'Neal three championship rings and his lone MVP award.

Good news for the Lakers: Head coaches don't count toward the cap. If the Lakers do cut ties with D'Antoni and hire Jackson, they'd be paying three head coaches this upcoming season, but that probably won't be an issue, seeing as though they signed a $3 billion cable deal in 2011. Remember, Mike Brown still receives a paycheck from the Lakers, even though he's on the Cleveland sideline now.

If Howard hates D'Antoni ball, doesn't Houston have a problem?

The Rockets have become co-favorites in the Howard sweepstakes, which makes sense given that Houston can easily carve out enough cap space to give Howard the max (say, by trading Thomas Robinson and Terrence Jones) and the additional fact that James Harden is not Kobe Bryant.

There's just one problem: Houston employs a similar spread pick-and-roll offense that D'Antoni himself popularized. Safe to say Howard won't go for that. Broussard's report makes it clear that Houston likely will have to tinker the offense to cater to Howard's demands for a more inside-out offense, but would that be in the Rockets' best interests?

Hard to argue that it would be. Harden is an absolute monster in the pick-and-roll, and it seems like it would be a waste of assets if a Harden-Howard partnership doesn't involve a strong dose of pick-and-roll actions. Which brings me to this next point ...

Howard knows he's not Shaq, right?

I'm kidding. Well, maybe not. There's the Superman nickname, the horrible free throw shooting and the fact Howard was drafted by the Orlando Magic and then joined the Lakers. Sure, Howard didn't draft himself and it was the Magic, not Howard, who traded him to Lakerland. But still.

When Howard demands more looks in the post, it seems as if he thinks he's someone he's not. Howard is not Shaq. He does not weigh more than 300 pounds. He is not 7-foot-1. He is not a beast in the post that Shaq was in his prime. On the contrary, Howard's lighter frame (6-11, 265 pounds), ability to catch on the move and freakish athleticism make him a terror to guard in the pick-and-roll, not in the post.

According to Synergy Sports, Howard averaged .746 points per post-up play last season (by Synergy's definition, post-up plays end in a turnover, free throw or shot attempt). Only one player (Al Jefferson) saw more post-up plays than Howard last season, but Howard's ability to score in the post is awful, by comparison. Among the 37 players with at least 200 post-up plays last season, Howard's efficiency ranked 33rd.

But Howard in the pick-and-roll? He averaged 1.302 points per play as a roll man, which was almost twice as effective as a typical post-up for Howard. Among the 34 players with at least 150 pick-and-roll plays last season, only Tyson Chandler was more efficient than Howard. See why coaches love Howard in the pick-and-roll? That's how he's best utilized.

Which Texas team is more likely to land Howard: Dallas or Houston?

It appears that Houston is the more likely landing spot. The Rockets have a young star locked up long-term in Harden, and they have to shed fewer dollars to have enough space to sign Howard to the max. As reported by Marc Stein and Chad Ford, the Rockets are in serious negotiations to send Robinson to the Chicago Bulls (20th pick) or the Cleveland Cavaliers (19th pick) on Thursday night and receive a first-round pick in return. Yes, draft night could be dominated by Howard talk.

Such a move would bring the Rockets within $1 million of the "max deal" territory, according to Larry Coon's math, which means that unloading Royce White or Jones would be the next and final step for the Rockets.

Also working in the Rockets' favor is that they can offer the Lakers a sign-and-trade package of young players that might interest them. If Howard makes it clear that he's not signing in Los Angeles, the Lakers could get something in return by prying Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik from Houston. Lin and Asik may not be All-Stars, but they sure are better than nothing. And Lin is a D'Antoni favorite, of course.

Important CBA note: The Lakers can send away the signed player in a sign-and-trade, but can't receive the signed player like they did with Steve Nash and Phoenix. In this scenario, Howard would get his max money, and the Lakers would have two young players to help replenish an old supporting cast around Bryant.

Is Dwight Howard underrated?

No one has shot themselves in the foot with PR gaffes more than Howard has in recent years. With endlessly silly hokey-pokey games and thinly veiled complaints on and off the record, the Dwight Howard experience has been an absolute headache to follow the past few years.

But there's a reason why he holds that much power over an organization, and the league to an extent: He's really, really good at basketball. Remember, this is the same guy who two years ago finished second in MVP voting behind Derrick Rose, and was considered by ESPN experts the third-best player in the league by #NBArank as recently as September.

What a difference a season makes. After playing through a torn labrum and admittedly returning too soon from back surgery, Howard averaged 17.1 points, a league-leading 12.4 rebounds and shot 57.8 percent from the floor, a conversion rate that placed him second in the league. Lakers fans probably don't want to hear it, but Howard probably did about as well as one could have hoped, considering his body was a wreck.

Defensively, he was clearly limited by his various health issues and at times struggled to impose anywhere close to the same force as he did in Orlando. But there's evidence that Howard's work on that end of the floor did improve as the season progressed. After the All-Star break, Lakers' opponents scored just 101.2 points per 100 possessions with Howard on the floor -- a defensive efficiency that would have given the Lakers a top-10 defense leaguewide, according to NBA.com stats.

But watch what happens when we remove Pau Gasol, who was forced to guard power forwards out of position last season, from the equation. After the All-Star break this past season, in the 730 minutes Howard played without Gasol on the floor, the Lakers' defense allowed just 98.6 points per 100 possessions. Orlando's defensive efficiency the season Howard finished second in the MVP vote? That would be 99.1 points per 100 possessions. Virtually no difference.

While Howard was nowhere near as healthy as he was in Orlando, there is plenty of evidence to suggest Howard can anchor a dominant defensive team as long as he's not paired next to an aging 7-footer hopelessly trying to guard power forwards. When the Lakers went small with Metta World Peace at the 4 and Howard at the 5, the Lakers posted one of the stingiest defenses in the league (95.5 points per 100 possessions). You can bet that the analytically inclined Mavericks and Rockets have taken notice of those numbers.

Yes, Howard struggled in the post and made LeBron James look like Nash at the free throw line. But no one in the history of the NBA has received more "can't score" criticisms while averaging nearly 20 points per game. Even if he often comes off as petulant and childish, Howard is, at worst, a borderline All-Star player and league-leading rebounder. At best, he's one of the top two or three players in the league and a rock-solid foundation cornerstone. Howard is a year removed from back surgery, and his suitors are banking that he's closer to the latter. And with good reason.​