NBA Draft Big Board filled out by NBA GMs & scouts

Spoiler

Each year I talk to a number of NBA general managers and scouts to create my NBA Draft Top 100 and Big Board. But this year I decided to go one step further: to ask those same GMs and scouts to actually rate the top 50 NBA prospects.

Below is our first "Secret NBA Draft Big Board" -- the results of the ratings and rankings from our most informed sources in the league.

We asked them to predict each player's NBA career, according to two questions: How good a prospect is he? What kind of career will he have?

About half of the NBA's 30 teams participated, rating prospects on a 0-to-10 scale. A rating of 0 meant that the player "won't make the league or will have a very minimal NBA career," while a score of 10 meant he was a "top-of-the-line, elite prospect." Our respondents were asked to rate each prospect against all such NBA prospects in recent years.

We took these scores, averaged them and prorated them on a 100-point scale. This created a consensus "wisdom of the crowd" effect, the same thing that drives our ESPN Forecast panel to great success in predicting NBA outcomes. In other words, the results below (a) are reflective of the opinion of NBA decision-makers about this year's prospects and (b) have predictive value in terms of the NBA careers of these prospects.

Here are the results for our debut edition of the Secret NBA Draft Big Board:

1. Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 85.0 (of 100)

High Score: 9 (of 10)

Low Score: 7 (of 10)

Ford's comments: While Oladipo's ranking may surprise some, I'm not shocked. The key to his ranking is that his low score is only 7. With a narrow range between his low score of 7 and his high score of 9. Oladipo is widely regarded as the safest pick in the draft. While he doesn't garner a 10 from anyone, teams believe he's unlikely to fail. A number of GMs have privately confided in me that he's their favorite player in the draft -- not necessarily ranked No. 1 on their boards, but their favorite player. His range looks like it's from No. 2 to No. 5 on draft night.

2. Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 82.5

High Score: 10

Low Score: 4

Ford's comments: With the exception of one 4 rating (does this guy have info we don't have?), Noel received an 8, 9 or 10 from every voter. Clearly someone in the NBA thinks he'll be a bust, but the majority have him ranked as the top player in the draft. While Noel certainly has question marks thanks to ACL issues and a thin frame, most scouts and GMs still see him as an elite prospect. Right now we're projecting his draft range as 1 to 2.

3. Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 81.7

High Score: 10

Low Score: 7

Ford's comments: McLemore, like Oladipo, is seen as a sure thing by most GMs. He didn't garner as many high scores as Noel, but he also didn't have anyone rank him as a potential bust. While teams have been recently concerned about his agent issues, his combination of athletic ability and shooting touch seem to have made them confident that he's a can't-miss prospect. Despite his high ranking here, McLemore's off-court situation could push him down slightly in the draft. That's why he is currently projected in the 2 to 7 range.

4. Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 81.5

High Score: 9

Low Score: 6

Ford's comments: Bennett landed one 6 rating and one 7 rating and scored an 8 or 9 on every other ballot. He finished just a tick under McLemore and is also seen by most as a very safe pick. Yes, he's a bit of a tweener, but most NBA GMs and scouts see versatility. He's projected to go between 1 and 7 on draft night.

5. Otto Porter Jr., SF, Georgetown
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 80.0

High Score: 10

Low Score: 6

Ford's comments: Porter was only one of three players to get a 10 rating (Noel and McLemore were the other two). But he also received several 6 ratings, showing a significant split between voters on Porter's future in the NBA. Where some see the next Scottie Pippen, others see Tayshaun Prince. It looks like his draft night range is 1 to 6.

6. Alex Len, C, Maryland
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 77.5

High Score: 9

Low Score: 4

Ford's comments: While Len has a legitimate shot at going No. 1, our voters overall weren't nearly as high on him. He didn't garner a 10 from anyone and was rated as low as 4 by one voter. That lack of consensus from our panel shows up around the league as well in private conversations. Some GMs love him, while others are very wary. But his overall rating of 77.5 puts him just five points behind Noel. Like the five players above him, he's expected to be one of the top six picks on draft night.

7. C.J. McCollum, PG, Lehigh
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 75.0

High Score: 9

Low Score: 6

Ford's comments: Along with Oladipo being ranked No. 1, McCollum may be the biggest surprise of our survey. McCollum is ranked as the third-best point guard in my Top 100, but here he comes up ahead of Trey Burke and Michael Carter-Williams by a nose. Like Oladipo, he ranked highly because he's considered a solid, reliable pick. While Carter-Williams and Burke garnered higher votes, they also had lower ones too. McCollum's narrow voting range of 6 to 9 was identical to Bennett's and similar to Oladipo's. He may not have as much upside as others, but he's seen as a safer pick. McCollum's draft night range is 5 to 14.

8. Cody Zeller, PF, Indiana
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 73.3

High Score: 9

Low Score: 6

Ford's comments: Like McCollum, Zeller appears to be a fairly safe pick -- his ratings run from 6 to 9 on our ballots. Zeller's stellar advanced metric numbers may be helping him here, along with a belief that he'll make the transition from college center to NBA stretch 4. Zeller's draft night range is 4 to 12.

9. Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 73.1

High Score: 9

Low Score: 5

Ford's comments: This vote shows the split in NBA circles on Burke. While some believe he'll be a star, others think he's going to be just an average player at the next level. Burke has moved off his status as the consensus No. 1 point guard in the draft and is now an eye-of-the-beholder type of player. Burke's range on draft night appears to be 6 to 14.

10 (tie). Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 69.2

High Score: 9

Low Score: 3

Ford's comments: Carter-Williams' has been chasing Burke in the point guard rankings for months, and once again he's right behind Burke. Some teams love him and others think he'll be a bust -- he received an 8 or a 9 from about half the teams in our survey (more than Burke) but also was rated as low as 3 and 4 on other ballots. As one of the most polarizing players on the board, his draft night range appears to be wide as well -- he could go as early as No. 5 or as late as No. 14.

10 (tie). Dario Saric, SF, Croatia
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 69.2

High Score: 9

Low Score: 3

Ford's comments: Saric withdrew from the 2013 NBA Draft but was included in our survey, and it's clear that he was considered a likely lottery pick. He made the top 10, and he received ratings as high as 8 and 9. He also received a 3 from one voter, pulling his overall rating down a little. Most of our voters rated him at 7, which translates to being a mid-to-late lottery pick. (It might be hard for him to reach the same level in a more stacked 2014 draft.) Saric's draft night range was 6 to 13 before he withdrew.

12. Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 66.7

High Score: 9

Low Score: 5

Ford's comments: Schroeder barely trails Saric as the highest ranked international player on our Secret Big Board. His ranking is another small surprise here. He's just slightly behind Burke and Carter-Williams among point guards and also received a 9 rating from one team. While his workouts have been so-so, his play in the Nike Hoop Summit has clearly moved him into the lottery discussion. Schroeder's range on draft night is 13 to 23.

13 (tie). Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 66.2

High Score: 8

Low Score: 4

Ford's comments: Adams was ranked highly at the start of the season, sunk into the 20s in my Top 100 during the season and then shot back into lottery contention after strong workouts and a great draft combine. Every team I've spoken with has been wowed by what they've seen in its gym. No one thinks he'll be a superstar -- hence he's the first person on the list not to get a rating of 9 from any team. But more teams appear to be getting on the bandwagon. Adams' draft night range is 10 to 19.

13 (tie). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 66.2

High Score: 8

Low Score: 4

Ford's comments: Caldwell-Pope is all over the board. One team rates him as highly as 8 while others rate him as a 4 or 5 (of 10). His team's poor performance last season probably has something to do with it -- while he put up strong stats, he often did it in a losing cause. The advanced metrics guys, however, love him. His range on draft night is 9 to 15.

15. Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 64.2

High Score: 8

Low Score: 5

Ford's comments: In one way, the consensus is fairly strong on Olynyk, and in another way it's not. All of the teams rated him a 5, 6 or 7, except for one team that rated him at 8. That said, he can be a polarizing figure in the conversations I have with teams. He's a favorite of teams that rely heavily on analytics, but scouts tend to believe his game won't translate to the next level. His draft night range is 11 to 23.

16. Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 63.3

High Score: 9

Low Score: 3

Ford's comments: Larkin is another player who can be very polarizing. In terms of the ratings from teams, he has one of the largest spreads of anyone on the board -- scoring several 8s and 9s but also several votes in the 3-to-5 range. The issue is size: Some teams just don't like small point guards and Larkin is one of the smallest point guards to come into the draft in the last decade. His range on draft night is likely 14 to 21.


17. Sergey Karasev, SG, Russia
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 62.5

High Score: 7

Low Score: 5

Ford's comments: Karasev is another player who made a strong push up the board thanks to a great Nike Hoop Summit performance. Every voter gave him a rating between 5 and 7. While no one seems particularly wowed by Karasev, all the teams seem to think his shooting should keep him from being a bust. His draft night range is 11 to 19.

18. Allen Crabbe, SG, California
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 60.8

High Score: 8

Low Score: 5

Ford's comments: Relative to my Big Board, where he is ranked 25, Crabbe gets the biggest boost from the Secret Big Board. Clearly teams feel his shooting prowess and good size at his position make him a safer bet than other shooters on the board. His draft night range is pretty broad -- from 15 to 30.

19 (tie). Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF, Greece
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 60.0

High Score: 9

Low Score: 3

Ford's comments: Antetokounmpo, like Larkin, is one of the most polarizing players in the draft. Antetokounmpo got a rating of 3 from one team and a rating of 9 from another. He is truly the hardest player in this draft to peg. His upside is enormous, but he also represents a major risk. With little to no real playing experience against talented opponents, some team will just sort of just have to cross its fingers. His draft night range is 12 to 17.

19 (tie). Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 60.0

High Score: 7

Low Score: 4

Ford's comments: Nogueira is sort of a poor man's Nerlens Noel -- a long, skinny, athletic shot blocker. Like Noel, Nogueira is raw. But he has neither the same motor as Noel nor the same basketball IQ, which is why he probably isn't a lottery pick. His draft night range is 13 to 19.

21 (tie). Isaiah Canaan, PG, Murray State
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 59.2

High Score: 8

Low Score: 4

Ford's comments: Canaan has been under the radar for much of the draft process, but this ranking reflects what I've been hearing. In workouts, he's stood out and even outplayed players ranked ahead of him. He could be this year's sleeper. His draft night range is 15 to 30.

21 (tie). Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 59.2

High Score: 7

Low Score: 4

Ford's comments: How the mighty have fallen. Muhammad was projected as a top-five pick at the start of the college basketball season, but didn't get a single 8, 9 or 10 rating from a team. His ratings are all in a fairly narrow range of 4 to 7, and they reflect the new view that while Muhammad may be a solid contributor, he's unlikely to be a star. His draft night range is 13 to 19.

23. Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 57.5

High Score: 8

Low Score: 1

Ford's comments: Franklin had the widest range of ratings of any prospect -- he received a rating of 1 from one team and a rating of 8 from another. Most of his ratings were in the 6-to-8 range, however. The main concerns for teams are his questionable jump shot and lack of a real position. His draft night range is 15 to 24.

24 (tie). Mason Plumlee, C, Duke
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 56.7

High Score: 8

Low Score: 2

Ford's comments: Plumlee isn't going to be happy about this. He had a terrific senior year and worked out many of the kinks in his game, but scouts still seem skeptical. While his elite athletic ability is his calling card, this ranking may foretell a draft night slide. His range for draft night is 11 to 22.


24 (tie). Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 56.7

High Score: 8

Low Score: 4

Ford's comments: Hardaway Jr. has been helping himself in workouts, but it doesn't seem to be enough to move him out of the 20s. His draft night range is 7 to 27.


26. Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 55.8

High Score: 8

Low Score: 3

Ford's comments: This ranking would have been much higher if teams were rating the players just after the NCAA tournament. The big Louisville shot blocker rates as high as 8 but as low as 3. Injury concerns regarding his ankle and his knee seem to be hurting his draft stock at the moment. His draft night range is 16 to 28.

27. Tony Snell, SF, New Mexico
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 54.2

High Score: 8

Low Score: 2

Ford's comments: Snell is another player who has been rising on the board the past few weeks with terrific workouts and a strong performance at the draft combine. But he has his doubters, with ratings as low as 2 and 4. His draft night range is 19 to 35.

28. Mike Muscala, PF, Bucknell
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 53.3

High Score: 7

Low Score: 3

Ford's comments: Muscala might be the most underrated player in the draft. While his upside isn't huge -- the highest rating he received was a 7 -- many teams believe he has the potential to be a solid stretch 4 in the NBA. His draft night range is 20 to 35.

29 (tie). Richard Ledo, SG, Providence
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 50.8

High Score: 8

Low Score: 2

Ford's comments: Ledo would likely be ranked much higher if there weren't serious off-court concerns. He's the last player on the board to garner a rating of 8, but he also racked up a number of 2 and 3 ratings from teams. He could be this year's Lance Stephenson. His draft night range is 24 to 35.

29 (tie). Tony Mitchell, SF, North Texas
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 50.8

High Score: 7

Low Score: 2

Ford's comments: Mitchell began the season ranked as a potential top-10 pick, but struggled at North Texas this year and saw the bottom drop out of his stock. While several teams have him rated as a 7, several other teams see him as a likely bust. His draft night range is 24 to 35.

31 (tie). Alex Abrines
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 50.0 | High Score: 6 | Low Score: 3 (of 10)

31 (tie). Jeff Withey
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 50.0 | High Score: 7 | Low Score: 3 (of 10)

31 (tie). Nate Wolters
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 50.0 | High Score: 7 | Low Score: 3 (of 10)

31 (tie). Reggie Bullock
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 50.0 | High Score: 7 | Low Score: 1 (of 10)

35. Pierre Jackson
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 49.2 | High Score: 7 | Low Score: 2 (of 10)

36. Rudy Gobert
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 48.3 | High Score: 7 | Low Score: 2 (of 10)

37 (tie). C.J. Leslie
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 46.7 | High Score: 7 | Low Score: 2 (of 10)

37 (tie). Glen Rice Jr.
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 46.7 | High Score: 7 | Low Score: 1 (of 10)

39. Lorenzo Brown
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 45.4 | High Score: 6 | Low Score: 3 (of 10)

40. Archie Goodwin
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 40.8 | High Score: 6 | Low Score: 2 (of 10)

41. Erick Green
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 40.0 | High Score: 6 | Low Score: 2 (of 10)

42 (tie). Andre Roberson
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 37.5 | High Score: 6 | Low Score: 0 (of 10)

42 (tie). Grant Jerrett
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 37.5| High Score: 6 | Low Score: 2 (of 10)

44. Richard Howell
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 36.7 | High Score: 5 | Low Score: 1 (of 10)

45 (tie). Jackie Carmichael
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 35.8 | High Score: 6 | Low Score: 1 (of 10)

45 (tie). Ray McCallum
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 35.8 | High Score: 8 | Low Score: 0 (of 10)

45 (tie). Ryan Kelly
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 35.8 | High Score: 7 | Low Score: 0 (of 10)

48 (tie). James Ennis
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 35.0 | High Score: 7 | Low Score: 1 (of 10)

48 (tie). Livio Jean-Charles
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 35.0 | High Score: 7 | Low Score: 1 (of 10)

48 (tie). Nemanja Nedovic
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 35.0 | High Score: 5 | Low Score: 2 (of 10)

 

Rudy Gobert at no.36, huh? The hype is dying.

 

A steal at #36.

 

Wonder what was parsons ratings

 

This is the first year he's done this with the numerical ratings. Past years he just used GM inside info to make his big draft board.

 

Guess low, had low bench press at that time and is white :grin:

 

We already have Gobert on RGV.. Whiteside.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOEhmklaiQ4

I like this kid a lot. Can shoot lights out.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43nbxlfcTl0

 

45 (tie). Ray McCallum
Secret NBA Draft Big Board Rating: 35.8 | High Score: 8 | Low Score: 0 (of 10)


the 8 from morey? lol

bet.

 

what?

 

IIRC, Ford reported before the draft that several teams were considering Chandler Parsons in the mid-20s. I'm guessing that the Rockets were one of those teams (at least that they had him rated that high).

 

Maybe. He reminds me of Manute Bol. Essentially nothing besides shot blocking. Can't hold position at all, vs anyone. Can't hit a layup either if there's any contact at all.

I think he's worth the gamble somewhere. What if? I'm not sure where, though. If someone like Erick Green is still on the board, like he is on this GM poll, I would pass on Gobert.

 

Rudy Gobert. I'm willing to take a risk on him if he's available at 34.

 

Morey must be the one giving all those low ratings lol

 

I recall Parsons' stock skyrocketing after a workout where he went one-on-one against Paul George and did well. I remember Ford going ape over that workout and saying a lot of teams raised their opinion of him after he showed how aggressive he could be.

 

Cluster **** of a draft. Outside of the top 6, plenty of guys getting 7 and 8's all the way down to the end of the second round.