He already lived there! He didn't "end up loving the city". He already knew he did, and he still had enough misgivings about the Lakers as an organization that they weren't at the top of his list. Now, after a season he termed a "nightmare" and with Kobe coming off an incredibly serious injury, the appeal of "we're the Lakers, it'll always be OK" is going to work? I would. It was obvious Dwight was going to get traded -- he made the demand at the start of the 2011 offseason -- and the Lakers had the most movable trade piece in Bynum. They have zero young assets now. Also, trades are going to become much less frequent, because teams can't play the card of "sign an extension or we need to get something" anymore, now that the new CBA makes it beneficial for everyone to wait until free agency. The LeBron scenario is the one variable. It depends on the two-time champs somehow falling apart, LeBron not trusting Riley to rebuild, and then bypassing the chance to make things right in his hometown with a Cleveland cast loaded with young talent. The odds of LeBron to LA are low enough that you'd be a fool to take it seriously in your calculations. Because most objective observers agree that the Rockets offer a better basketball situation for Dwight than the Lakers. Yes, it's an assumption, in the sense that almost anything is an assumption. I could say that LeBron James isn't signing with Charlotte next summer. Still not a fact. But it's a reasonable assumption. The case for Houston, from a basketball standpoint, is a reasonable assumption. The case for LA? Not so much. Yup, and I'm pointing out that his opinion is biased as a diehard Laker fan. PJ would agree in two seconds. He's been angling for a front office job for months. He was ready to accept the coaching job in November. I'm arguing because the factors of Dwight "wanting to be loved", wanting to be "the man" and saying Phil is an "informal consultant" do not successfully mesh with the criteria Dwight has laid out over and over again over the past few months. To come to the conclusion that it adds up to the Lakers "gaining momentum" is bias.
My take on the Phil situation: Of course every other team pursuing Dwight should be concerned about whether Phil's "informal advisor of sorts" role would make the Lakers more attractive to Dwight or lead to Phil's return as either the coach or in a formal front office capacity. Whether we like him or not, Phil Jackson does seem to instill confidence among NBA players. On the other hand, there really isn't a whole lot anyone can do about it. Phil is dating Jeanie Buss, not Les Alexander's daughter Jeanie Alexander or Mark Cuban's daughter Jeanie Cuban, and it's always been a long shot that he goes to work for any other team, especially one in direct competition with the Lakers for a big time free agent. Perhaps more important, I suspect that the way the Lakers and Jimmy Buss are approaching this is that "Let's bring Phil in a little bit right now without giving him any real power just so we make ourselves look good to Dwight; if we do reel Dwight in, we'll see whether I feel like giving Phil some power, if not, then it's 'Bye, Phil' and I've lost nothing." Everybody may be leveraging everyone else, so it's entirely possible that Jimmy Buss is trying to use Phil as leverage for Dwight, while Phil is trying to use Dwight as leverage against Jimmy Buss and Dwight is trying to use the Rockets as leverage to get Jimmy Buss to fire D'Antoni and hire Phil (as coach or as a front office "Pat Riley"). It's all a big circular human centipede of leverage.
He chose BKN (and still likes them the most) because he wanted to blaze a trail in NY with the marketing opportunities there (and apparently Fegan has a lot of contacts there). He also didn't want to follow in Shaq's footsteps (if you recall Shaq was constantly telling everyone that Dwight was always copying him). He chose Dallas bc that's where he wanted to play with Deron. Once Deron didn't make it there, he liked them over HOU but perhaps not over LA. Winning may have been a factor, but it wasn't the only factor. (I don't think BKN was the most winning situation). You make assumptions based on his stated criteria. I think that's risky. Many players aren't brave enough to say "Money matters most" (bc then they get labelled as mercenary or someone who only cares that someone is cutting the check). Of course Dwight wants people to believe that winning matters most. And he may even believe it. But it doesn't mean that he CAN'T win in LA. He can. They have consistently contended. Sure they don't have anyone like Harden. But they often get players who fall to them like manna from heaven. Those guys retool quickly. I think they're in bad shape but I wouldn't be surprised is they bounce back really quick. Maybe we are getting played - meaning, his first choice is (1) LA, if they give him what he wants (i.e., show they have a plan to win, involve Phil, emphasize low post, promise to fire Dantoni), (2) HOU/Clippers, (3) Clippers/HOU, (4) DAL. So we're getting played in that he has to show real interest in us to get LA to move. But if LA doesn't move or he thinks it won't work there, he will come here.
Overall, I think the last 24 hours have been good for the Rockets. Miami winning means LeBron will likely stay put in 2014, and Doc not going to the Clippers means CP3 may have some doubts about staying in LA. As Morey said, we need 20 things to go our way to get both CP3 and Dwight Howard. Maybe these are #1 and #2.
Something I will add here. Cat, you aren't simply arguing that your point of view/interpretation is reasonable. It is. I'm not even arguing that the other point of view/interpretation is definitely correct, or even MORE reasonable. What you're saying is that the other point of view is completely unreasonable, absurd and silly. I just see too many reasons suggesting that it could be otherwise. You make some assumptions, and we make some assumptions. Some are better than others, but you seem to give arbitrary weight to some assumptions over others, which does not make too much sense in this context.
Something I'll add is that the scenarios discussed by the two of year aren't in line with what cyberx said. Yes, it's possible Dwight could stay with the Lakers. He might buy into the 2014 plan. While unlikely, it's possible they could have a better future over the next 5 years than the Rockets. Maybe they get LeBron, or something falls from the heavens. I don't think Dwight drinks the Laker kool-aid enough to stake his future on this, but who knows. What I don't buy is that patting him on the back, giving him more post touches or making Phil an informal consultant is going to lead to that second star falling from the heavens. If Kupchak makes a convincing plea based on his history and perhaps shows texts from a couple of prominent players, maybe something happens. But the idea that stroking Dwight's ego is turning things around is completely incompatible with his stated criteria.
I agree with this. If I were Dwight (and Phil), I'd want a clear commitment from Phil and an official role for Phil, not just as a consultant, so that Jim doesn't usher him out the door after Dwight signs on the dotted line.
I'm saying there are assumptions made here. How do you know getting more post touches does not equal winning basketball in Dwight's mind? Maybe he thinks that is part of the problem. Also, sure, making PJ an informal consultant does little, but that's just one indication of what they plan to have PJ do. We don't know what is being said behind the curtain -- this could just signal, again, bringing PJ more and more in as they discuss more and more what his role could be (w/ PJ's agreement, negotiations, etc.). Saying that LAL is gaining momentum on actually taking Dwight's demand seriously and putting forth an effort is not that unreasonable given that they before seemed to be more of the "my way or highway" w/ Dwight. Change in attitude of course can help change momentum if Dwight would prefer staying in LA. I don't think your interpretations are wrong. In fact, I agree w/ them in substance, if not in certainty. It sure makes more sense to me; but does that somehow make this other one that unreasonable? Not in my opinion. I can see lots of reasons where it is true as well. I could see it actually happening/have happened in reality. Does not say where Dwight will ultimately land, but it is news that does not strike me as so absurd that'd I think it is completely unbelievable.
I agree with this. Cat, your logic is reasonable and I am hoping that Dwight will follow through on his stated criteria. But even if he follows through on it, I am also hoping that he'll realized that HOU is better for his stated criteria (which I think) than LA. A person can rationalize LA even using the winning criteria. They'd probably be wrong, but it wouldn't be unreasonable. Cyberx's post and position is not unreasonable and may very well be true. Also, he may be a laker fan, but it didn't stop him from saying that Dwight was really really interested in HOU and pushing the narrative (regardless of who broke the idea first). He held that position for quite a while, so even if he were an LA fan it didn't stop him from saying that HOU had the advantage. Now that he's saying there are strong factors the other way, it is automatically appropriate to all of a sudden say "Laker bias" when that Laker bias didn't stop him from pushing the Dwight to HOU narrative and being at least one of the early proponents.
Much of this is reasonable. But Phil is currently an informal consultant doesn't mean that he won't be made into a formal operational person as the last step to sealing the deal. And there's a big difference between being with an organization who thinks you're lucky to be with them and being with one who bends over backwards to take care of your needs. Even if you're focused on winning, you're not giving enough weight to the pyschological impact of the strategy which, when combined with bringing on someone he apparently respects, may be persuasive. Where I think you are missing the point is there are a LOT of factors at play here. Winning may be the most important but if he can convince himself that it's close between LA and HOU OVER A 5 YEAR PERIOD, then the other factors take on more significance. Having an organization cater to your every whim makes you HAPPY. Having one who says wait to Kobe's completely gone and you've proved yourself to us after several years can make you UNHAPPY. HAPPY people tend to stay. It is NOT completely incompatible with his STATED criteria, esp. if he reaches the conclusion that LA and HOU and 1 and 1A on his stated criteria, or close enough so other criteria can shift the balance. Then there's the what he says versus what he does argument too...
I'm pretty concerned about Dwight and Paul going to Atlanta. And before you give the "Dwight doesn't want to go back home" excuse, same could be said about Houston. Circumstances change
Except the reasoning for not wanting to go to Houston has changed, while the reasoning for avoiding Atlanta will ALWAYS be there.
Atlanta doesn't have room to give both the max. Even if they renounce everyone and sell off both first-round picks, Dwight and CP3 would each have to take a discount of roughly $2.5 million/year. They'd still have to give up the 5th year and also pay a state tax! Do you really think Dwight and Paul will do all that for the Atlanta Hawks? A perpetually mediocre franchise with an unproven GM, unproven coach and an owner that's never paid the luxury tax? All to play with Al Horford, nine scrubs and likely be dispatched before the Finals by LeBron as long as he stays in Miami/Cleveland? As much as I've gone around the block to undermine the LA pitch in this thread, I'd say the Lakers are about 100 times more likely than the Hawks.
I'm not convinced of Atlanta's selling points. They can't actually offer max contracts (They're a bit over $3mil short even if they renounce everyone they can), and there's a state tax so Howard would stand to lose even more vs. signing with the Rockets. Even if it's for the sole purpose of teaming up with Paul... you're left with Howard, Paul, Horford, Lou Williams, and then vet min contracts. I think you could give a very good argument to the fact that a Rockets rotation of Lin, Harden, Parsons, Howard, Asik, Beverley, and Jones/DMo is stronger.
Absolutely. I think the Rockets with Dwight would be a better team next year than that Atlanta group. Add in that there's more money in Houston, a much more proven GM (when it comes to further team improvements) and the fact that you can get to the Finals without playing LeBron. The Hawks won't be a factor.
