why are people including howard in this scenario? if they go ahead with the trade the ONLY sure thing is KG and Doc, and "probably" cp3. howard is far from a sure things. it's up to the lakers what they want to do with him. he can't just walk to the clippers. i highly, highly doubt lakers will do sign and trade rather than keep the cap for 2014. how much change is a good thing for cp3? he wanted a new black coach and by all indications he'll get one.... they're only interviewing black coaches, interestingly. he wants howard but any reasonable player knows that it's not just a matter of paying for him - the lakers would need to agree to it as well unless clippers trade away all their assets for picks which is not going to happen. at the end of it all, the clippers will keep cp3 and have a new black coach. and howard will decide to resign with LA or go to houston.
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(note- Im trying to discard Sterling's rational when considering these moves, and assume he makes moves like a rational person would) Any "good" GM would love to move D. Jordan on his contract, but that's a separate conversation. Griffin/Bledsoe on the other hand, I definitely can see, but if its a choice of CP3/Dwight or Griffin/Bledsoe, that's an easy choice for any GM to make. Its cost benefit.
Not really they can still be in play for pierce if he is released. I personally would rather have Jordan/Griffin and hope for upside. Trade draft picks/ bledose for upgrade sometime this year. Then get marginally better superstar...but biggest thing is Howard could be on decline. That is hard give up...on a face of the franchise player that is still getting better. To pay 6 mil more for another player that may be on decline. They are win now...all they need to do is upgrade in different ways. Bledsoe/draft picks upgrade ... I mean there are more ways to do this. If they have the assets to get howard, and KG and doc..then they have the assets to keep griffin and upgrade somewhere else. Shoot SNT for PEK would be better for the team. Give them Jordan/Bledoe for ST for Pek. CP3 Griffin Pek over CP3 Howard And KG in my mind
You honestly think they'd still be in play for Pierce if KG didn't leave the Celts? Come on, we all know that is a package deal (sort of like Rivers w/ KG). Their loyalty is why they all re-signed in the first place. They aren't pulling Ray Allens. If you believe Simmons' article on Howard's decline (I do), then why not the one on Griffin's decline? Griffin is overrated imo and has shown very little progress, only getting 'worse' every yr. And DJordan can only block and finish dunks and grab a few boards. Very few believe he has much upside left. Besides, moving Griffin for Howard...would only happen BECAUSE CP3 wants it and it would lock CP3 in. If CP3 said, keep Griffin and I will sign...then they wouldn't move for Howard. I wouldn't either! But if CP3 was about to bolt, but then said, bring Howard over (if those Stein reports are to be believed) and I will be happy...then LAC has to consider it. It is almost as if Howard and CP3 are a package deal (again, like Pierce and KG and Doc). Chances of landing or getting one independent of the other are not great or do not make much sense, but that isn't why they are being made, as if in a vacuum. LAC are not 'win now.' You think they are contenders as is? Maybe one move away, I can see that, but that totally depends on the move. What move is open that makes them win now? They showed last yr and this yr again in the playoffs just how far they are from truly contending. Like the dang Nuggets. Do aight in the regular season, but don't get anywhere in the playoffs. It isn't even like they had injuries (a la OKC) or anything -- they just don't have that x factor for that push into true contention. I also am not a fan of your hypo. DJordan's contract is like toxic - I am surprised the Celts were willing to take it. Why in the WORLD would Minny take it in a SnT for Pek? They here to do LAC favors? They have Rubio already so don't 'need' Bledsoe, and could just sign Pek themselves. Jordan's contract isn't that easy to dump, and sending a player that would be their 2nd string PG who would be a RFA next offseason does not somehow really sweeten that deal (esp. if they paying out about the same money as signing Pek outright would). BUT even if Minny were dumb enough to do this trade, because you have trade override and this is nba 2k13 , CP3/Griffin/Pek is not necessarily better than CP3/Howard/KG. I guess it is arguable though. Yet the MOST IMPORTANT issue you're missing here is it IS NOT that comparison. CP3's chances of staying are probably much higher w/ the latter lineup than the first one. And the latter scenario gives you a MUCH better chance of getting Pierce in that mix too. These are things that have to be factored into a cost-benefit analysis as well, not hypo trades in a vacuum.
Except griffin is getting better every year...made a big jump last year. He is a superstar, guaranteed all star, and marketing money maker. Howard had one of his worst years. Is trending down marketing wise. So one is trending up and the other is trending down. Especially going to the city where he basically would have betrayed the no 1 team there. But the biggest thing. You have a superstar money making machine in griffin. You trade him to pay an extra 4 or 5 million for howard. He is older, more injury prone, and off a down year. Easy to say when its not your 4 or 5 million. I just don't see the logic here. If anything it makes them marginally better...but they are giving a lot of assets to get marginally better. I just dont think its worth the risk...when you have a known commodity...its a business not fantasy basketball. You do not trade a guaranteed sell out crowd and guaranteed marketing money who is trending up, in Griffin for an unknown. Unless this reward is substantial...in this case it is not. I may not be a cap guru, but I am savvy business man. And I think very few GMs would make this move. Which is why I do not think it will happen Just my take though.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Celtics&src=hash">#Celtics</a>-Clippers, the fallout… Clipper source says they're in constant contact w/CP3--and he's OK w/deal falling apart.</p>— Mark Heisler (@MarkHeisler) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkHeisler/statuses/347064884346888192">June 18, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>With <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23CP3&src=hash">#CP3</a> on board,<a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Clippers&src=hash">#Clippers</a> will wait for <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Celtics&src=hash">#Celtics</a> to call back… if not will hire coach: I'm hearing Byron Scott over Brian Shaw in photo.</p>— Mark Heisler (@MarkHeisler) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkHeisler/statuses/347065102517805058">June 18, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9399106/los-angeles-clippers-walk-away-boston-celtics-deal-sources Clippers/Boston falls apart
You'll have to explain to me how going from 22.5-12.1 to 20.7-10.9 to 18-8.3 is getting 'better' every yr. Even his FG% dropped from 55% to 54%. Interesting big jump...(though I am being misleading, he actually got more efficient by a bit via his TS%, though worse via eFG%) Hardly something that would make me say he made a big jump though...I would argue relatively stagnant to decline, depending on bias. And you keep forgetting that I am not comparing Howard to Griffin straight up. I am comparing Howard vs. Griffin under the assumption that getting Howard though locks IN CP3. Again, the Howard deal would only happen if CP3 indicates he will stay. No way in hell it happens otherwise. Maybe CP3 will stay even without the Howard deal, but he has obviously not indicated that or else LAC would be sitting pretty. Factor that in. You say owners do not want risk -- if we were to do expected values here, it would be DH12 + P*(CP3) vs. BG + xP*(CP3), where initials represent the value the player brings to the team, P is probability of having that player and x is some fraction. Having a known commodity does not automatically mean it is better, or else a business would tend to fail. Harden was not a 'known commodity'...and KMart was. For sure we knew what we would get for KMart, game in and game out. But uncertainty is merely a factor to consider, not to be unnecessary over-emphasized. I disagree that LAC would only get marginally better. What the end game here would be LAC losing Bledsoe, some low picks, Griffin, DJordan and Butler. In return, they would get KG, Paul Pierce and Dwight Howard + greater chance of retaining CP3. That last bit is very important too. If we're talking about winning a ring, the latter set up is better for the next 2 yrs. If we're talking about long term sustainability while being moderately competitive, but probably never being a true contender, then the former wins out. It reminds me of OKC's move for Lamb and pick and KMart vs. keeping Harden. But I am working under the assumption that an nba owner wants to WIN. Most nba owners are not in it to get great returns on their investment -- there are MUCH better investments out there. Owning an nba team is a lot more like owning a Van Gogh. It has inherent value. They should want to WIN. You're right that it isn't my money, but we're only comparing owners to owners, not me to an owner. It is what most successful owners would do. Who cares what me or a crap owner would do? That is why Sterling is a real problem for the LAC franchise, like the Maloofs were for the Kings. Owners like that have a very hard time winning, and as a fan, that sucks. Finally, you keep talking about sell out crowds and money makers. Uhh...are you somehow telling me getting CP3 + KG + Pierce + Howard would somehow NOT equal sellout crowds for LAC? Please...they'd be sellout in either scenario. And BG being a better money maker than Dwight barely matters. Sort of like Lin not being THAT important of a cash cow to Les or NYK even. Revenue on these things are shared in the nba, and we're greatly over-estimating the benefit owners derive from these. Besides, know what helps owners get the best endorsements/money? Winning a ring :O Getting deep into playoff games. As an owner, how many commercials BG is in over Dwight would not matter to me at all -- esp. since both are already famous anyways. We aren't comparing BG to Joe Smith.
I see what your saying...and I am about to go to meeting so cant get into the advanced stats. But I read recently how they broke down blakes advanced stats, and he increased this year pretty substantially. I will try and touch back on this after I get home. I think our differences are because we are not arguing apples to apples. Two completely different scenarios. This isnt comparing keeping griffin and losing paul with keeping paul, adding howard, kg, doc, and pierce. Obviously thats a no brainier. This is how I see it, and I think national media consensus via my twitter feed will agree. 1st point Chris Paul isnt going anywhere. Just my take, but I think hes a clipper. He wants a new coach and he will get one in byron scott. And hes black to boot! ... He wants the clippers to push for howard and they are showing him they tried. If that falls through, and howard signs with us. CP3 would have no leverage. What is he gonna leave and go to atlanta...dallas? If he wants to play with howard in houston it will have to be a SNT with us, and clips will have leverage. CP3 doesnt have that many options better then LA outright. No leverage...so I think clips hold their guns. 2nd point. Pierce He isnt included in any scenario I have seen. He will most likely be bought out and that is completely separate from any current deal with Boston. You hold out and see where he lands. If he is bought out then clippers are the front runners anyway. So with that said I am comparing Griffin/Cp3 and keeping Jordan, bledsoe, and picks and a ton of money. Signing Byron scott much cheaper then doc. to adding KG and doc and losing Jordan, Bledsoe, Griffin, paying extra for trade kicker, paying more for docs contract, and giving two draft picks to boot. if they stand pat...they can still look to land pierce. They can also upgrade the center with someone like PEK via SNT at a lower asset cost. To me it just doesnt make sense. If I am the clippers there is no reason to shake this up....if it was fantasy basketball ya you make that deal. But the organization cares about making money first and foremost. So keeping griffin as a known commodity that brings in the dollars and sells tickets. Versus shaking everything up for something much more risky with relatively low upside...just doesn't make sense.
I agree w/ most of this, except I do think that LAC would go for Howard if CP3 demands it. Then it comes down to what Howard and LAL prefer. You're right -- if that falls through, then we're in no man's land for CP3. Problem is, I think there is a very good chance it happens. Dwight deciding to go to LAC is reasonable; I would not say coming to Houston is obviously a better decision to him. Also, LAL might agree and even push for it if it becomes clear Dwight is leaving regardless. Again, not guaranteed as maybe they prefer cap room to Griffin, but certainly reasonable. The very real chance of this happening means LAC should consider the Celts trade a bit more, esp. since Bledsoe is already off the table! They get two bites at the apple then. Do the Celts trade and even IF the Howard deal falls through, you did SOMETHING to make CP3 willing to stay AND you still have Griffin. What have you honestly lost out on? DJordan? Some non-cap salary? If Sterling just wanted to save some cash, this does not make me feel better if I were CP3. So recall, the Celts trade comes first and it benefits them regardless. They can decide later on (or circumstances can decide for them) whether they get Howard for Griffin or not. I also think the chances of landing Pierce are much greater if KG and Rivers are in LAC. I don't know if LAC are frontrunners otherwise, even if Pierce gets cut. See, if I am Clippers I know I HAVE to shake things up. Why shake things up? Because the team sort of sucks. They can't get deep into the playoffs! CP3 knows something needs to be done. Heck, I knew something had to be done almost a yr ago. They just aren't built to contend (yet). Maybe Sterling just cares about ticket sales and never winning -- he seems to be that kind of owner -- but that doesn't mean his move doesn't suck for CP3 and the fans. Should be in it to win it, imo, and you take risks when the status quo sucks. If the status quo were good/contenders, then yeah, why take the 'risk'? But here, what are they risking? They weren't even in the WCF this yr -- how much worse could it get making those swaps? And finally, to wrap back to my earlier comments -- two part deal shows Celts-Clipps deal should have gone down first. Increases chances CP3 re-signs, get rid of DJordan's toxic contract and get KG. All they'd lose out on is DJordan's toxic contract lol and two low first round picks. Pay some money off the books. Really? They should have done that deal and left their larger options open. Instead, it smelled like LAC wanted to bluff out Celts and have a 'steal' of a deal. Typical small-minded owner's mentality, where pride overshadows success (though clearly it has worked for him since he's so darn rich). gg Sterling, gg.
His scoring and rebounding has gone down each year that he's been in the league. Scoring 22.5...20.7...18.0 Rebounding 12.1...10.9...8.3 That's trending down, not up. I'm also not seeing the "big jump" last season. His scoring , rebounding, FG% and blocks all wend down in '13. He has been a consistently bad defender though. Everyone has their own criteria for defining a superstar and mine is that they must have at least one elite skill and they must make their teammates better. Griffin fails on both counts. He's good but not elite at either scoring or rebounding. He also doesn't really make his teammates much better.
Griffin is playing less minutes. The only thing that has really regressed is his rebounding. His scoring PER36 is almost identical. And FG% is the wrong way of looking at efficiency; Griffin's TS% has gone up every year and is now well above league average. He's playing much better defense. He posted his best ORTG, DRTG, and WS/48 last season and is passing the ball better as well. Advanced +/- shows all this improvement; he actually ranked above CP3. PER36, Griffin averaged 20/9/4/57%TS in only his third season, at the age of 23. Unless it was absolutely necessary to keep CP3, I don't think I would trade Griffin and Bledsoe for Dwight if I was the Clippers.
Yes, points are not a great way to look at it as he is playing fewer minutes, but rebounding rate is pretty important for his job at the PF spot. That drop is very much not welcomed and is quite a strong regression over the past 3 seasons. While his offensive game has not regressed, it hasn't improved that much either. TS% went up about 1 pt, but eFG% went down about 1 pt. His shots are getting assisted more often now, so this sounds about right. Being assisted way more at the rim explains his increased conversion at the rim, and keep in mind, all of these improvements have not led to some "huge improvement" from the prior 11-12 season. Is it a tad better? Sure, marginally so. Is it about stagnant? I could say yes to that as well. The only real noteworthy improvement from him has been his shooting from 10-15 ft...but at fewer than 1 attempt a game, I don't honestly care that much. Is Griffin playing 'much better' defense? When his DRating has DROPPED in his RAPM calculations from 2011-12's 1.9 to 2013's 1.2 (updated to March 30)? And not only RAPM, but general defensive rating has dropped from 2.06 to 2.04? Sure seems like regression to me. It is his offensive game that makes up for his RAPM, and that's always been good. We aren't here arguing that BG isn't good -- it is that he is not IMPROVING. Considering his defense has gotten worse, his rebounding a LOT worse, his blocks worse (though slightly better on steals), I don't think staying relatively the same or having slight improvements in passing or TS% of ~1.5% really makes up for that. Even if it 'made up for it'...I certainly would not say he has significantly improved over the last season.
