[CBS Sports] Howard no lock for Lakers; interested in Rockets

There are several reasons that San Antonio are out, money etc (it's a team that pervades such a strong team culture that involves paycuts etc, paying a "mercenary free agent" max dollar while the entire roster takes a discount would be insulting to say the least)

But I must admit there's a part of me that would find tremendous enjoyment out of watching how Pop and Dwight would butt heads.

 

I didn't even know the Spurs had cap room. I actually really thought the Rockets were the best thing for him but since they're in the Finals, they have great young talent, still have some veterans and Pop around. Even with Duncan possibly retiring, you put Dwight on that team and it's a sure contender. I don't know if Pop would stay and approve of Howard though.

 

Recent history..yes.

But fortunately for us, free agent decisions aren't based on looking at the past. They're based on the forward vision. All the past does is provide some basis of trust. Our recent past is the acquisition of Harden and Magic Man Morey putting this team in a position to acquire another premier max contract free agent to pair with him with a bunch of youngsters that are going to grow and get better. Morey does have an excellent history of working our cap and not taking on bad untradable contracts but rather multiplying good value tradable contracts. So, the only things SA has on us in the recent past is rings.

Most of Dwight's decision is going to come from how he is sold on a team's vision for competing for rings for the duration of his contract(s) with them. That's the next 4 years. Which team is going to be in the best position to get a ring next season, and the 3 seasons after that with him on board. Gonna have a tough time coming up with a better team than Houston right now.

 

An optimistic take on this is that Dwight has decided on houston and this is laying the groundwork for a "threat" to force a sign and trade if needed to get Paul. For example, LA has to believe Dwight would either sign outright with hou or be willing to go to Dallas Atl etc in order for La to cave and agree to a sign and trad with hou. Sterling would call Paul's bluff but Dwight might get away with it.

 

Let's not buy into the hoopsworld stuff. Agent uses "journalist", "journalist" gets web hits and keeps job, both cream their pants, e assim por diante (and so on).

 

Of course Dwight is going to open up his free agency search. Why wouldn't he? He gains nothing by shutting the door on teams. All he has to do is get wined and dined by players, coaches, and front office execs, listen to their sales pitch, answer a few questions about his visions for the future, and let his agent handle contract negotiations. For Dwight, this is what he's been waiting for. The ball is firmly in his court, and he's not going to do anything to waive that right.

I still believe Houston is his choice, but he wants to make sure to do his due diligence before committing the next 4+ years of his career to the Rockets. Also, as was stated above, by opening up his search, he also gains a fair bit of leverage against the Lakers if an S&T is indeed an option. The Lakers have to solidly believe that he is willing to sign with any number of teams outright if they are going to be agreeable to a trade.

 

In my humble opinion, I think LAL has already agreed to sign and trade Dwight to Houston if Dwight indeed chooses Houston or at least has agreed to a general framework of a sign and trade with Houston. Too many indicators point towards that. Such things as Mitch wanting Dwight to make a decision soon so they can move on to their other off season moves. Indicators such as Daryl putting TRob up for bid. (Why does Daryl do that unless he's already got a deal for TRob and he's trying to get more?)

I suspect Daryl and Mitch have already talked and Daryl knows what kind of sign and trade terms Mitch would agree to including some of the potential players Mitch would take back, etc.

A sign and trade makes sense from the Lakers perspective if they can get back:

1. Players on 1-yr contracts that do not affect their 2014 cap space and that can help them compete this year. (Brooks fits here....and possibly Delfino)
2. Players on rookie contracts that they could potentially trade for value.
3. A TPE of some decent $$ size that can help them possibly acquire another superstar or other 13/14 ending contract(s) with Bird's rights at the deadline.
----------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------

A sign and trade makes sense from the Rockets perspective if they can generate back more value than simply moving TRob and others out for future draft picks. More value could possibly be:

1. Generating the sign and trade by sending out $15.5 million in total contracts thereby never using our cap space, staying above the cap and having more $$$ in exceptions to sign other players. (MORE FLEXIBILITY)

2. #1 plus keeping Asik and Lin and as many of our rookie deals on the roster as possible to have more trade assets and more trade combination possibilities for the future. (MORE FLEXIBILITY)

3. #1 and #2 plus getting back more value in future draft picks. (MORE FLEXIBILITY)

---------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------

These are the reasons why I believe that if Dwight agrees to come here that a sign and trade will get done. Because even if all the Lakers could get from the sign and trade was Aaron Brooks and an $18 million TPE, that is way better for them then Dwight walking.

The only question I have is will Morey be able to arrange a S&T using the +$5 million trade rule so that he can stay above the cap and keep his exceptions? I think Morey already knows he can do a sign and trade using cap space, that is, by sending out Trob, Royce White and dropping a non-guaranteed contract. I think Morey already has a place to send Royce (it may be the Lakers), and TRob(lakers are for sure one team that would take TRob in a sign and trade) to make a sign and trade work. But that type of sign and trade doesn't really benefit us any because we could trade the guys anyways and just sign Dwight outright.

The only way a sign and trade really benefits us is if we can enhance our flexibility using points 1,2,and 3 above. The only way a sign and trade will really benefit us is if we can execute it using the +$5 million trade rule and make it a transaction involving multiple players and teams.

The Lakers realize this too. They realize the threat of Dwight walking for nothing. So the wheels are spinning already.

Can Daryl accumulate enough non-guaranteed contracts on our roster in combination with our non-guaranteeds and TRob/White and cash to put together a transaction or multiple transactions that help us sign and trade for Dwight and stay over the cap???

This is precisely why I am focusing on teams like Cleveland with multiple non-guaranteed deals, and Portland with Sasha as potential trading partners on June 30th. And also the Lakers. Wouldn't surprise me one bit that some convoluted deal went down on June 30th involving us, and one or more of the Lakers, Cleveland, and Portland.....in which we wind up with multiple non-guaranteed contracts added to our roster....than can then be traded out 60 days from thence. That would set up a potential sign and trade to keep us over the cap and increase our FLEXIBILITY going forward.

After the acquisition of Dwight, TRADE FLEXIBILITY going forward is the key asset, NOT CAP SPACE! We won't have any substantial cap space next year if we max out Dwight this summer. Parsons is going get a nice sized deal and we still got Asik and Lin. If there is an acquisition of another superstar after Dwight, it will be through trade....not outright signing. That's why all this talk about the Rockets not being willing to take on any long term deals....is simply not true. If they can make a trade for Paul using Lin and some of our rookie deals and non-guaranteeds....they'll do it. We're just simply going to operate as usual. We're not going to give out big long-term money deals to guys that will be difficult to trade later.

We will never sign Kevin Love outright if we sign Dwight. Love is either going to stay in Minny long-term or he's going to be traded after next season. Flip ain't stupid. He's not going to let Love walk. And with the Lakers sitting there with cap space for Love to walk in to in 2015 if he decides to opt out, Flip will never let it get there. He'll either get Love committed to a new deal, sign him to an extension, or he'll trade Love if Love refuses to extend. So, the only chance to get Love and keep him is to trade for him. Gotta keep the cap filled out with quality players on quality contracts to be able to do that.

Same thing applies to the guys in Miami. Riley is going to know whether they are staying or going. He's working with them in a different way. If he finds out they want out...he's going to find a trade deal and sell them on a trade to a place like Houston instead of walking to the Lakers.

If Dwight comes to Houston...the way we will improve our team going forward is through trades..not cap space.

 

It's kind of dangerous to already have done a tentative deal with a team from which you will tentatively take their best player. If true, I would hope he as a backup plan so that he doesn't get boxed in if the Lakers renege.

 

If I am right, it explains why TRob is up for bid, doesn't it? Morey is not about to get boxed in. There's probably a whole range of possibilities here for a sign and trade that he already knows about. For instance, he probably knows Lakers will complete a sign and trade with our without TRob....so he's got the freedom to shop TRob around.

Another for intance, he probably knows Mitch has said he's willing to do a sign and trade and take back Brooks. BUT.....Brooks is guaranteed. So, if that is the case, Morey is scrambling around to find a deal involving the Lakers where they can trade for Brooks now...send Duhon somewhere else with $2.1 million cash to the team that takes on Duhon....and non-guaranteeds back to Houston. That way Morey isn't stuck with Brooks later...and he's got non-guaranteeds to add to TRob, etc. later on.

There's a lot of ways to skin a cat. Look for Morey to do business with one or more of these teams on draft night:


Cleveland
Charlotte
Boston
Portland
Memphis
Utah
LA Lakers

This is a list of teams that are attracted to cash (Charlotte, Memphis, Utah, possibly Cleveland) and/or who would have interest in sending out some of their non-guaranteeds in order to get ahold of some of our non-guaranteeds (Boston-Ohlbrecht, Memphis-possibly Brooks and/or Delfino using their TPE to replace guys they can't afford to bring back, LAL-Greg Smith and/or Ohlbrecht/Trob/White, Portland - possibly Ohlbrecht or Smith).

All sorts of possibilities right now. Will be more clear after June 30th.

 

Trading Robinson and not taking any salary back would allow us to create enough cap space to make Howard a full max offer.

So, if you have something to sell, what better way to maximize your return on it than to have people bid on it. That's the whole basis of eBay, right?

I'm no seeing how this leads you to believe that the Rockets have already worked out a SnT for Howard. To me it just means that the Rockets are looking to unload Robinson.

 

TRob is not enough by himself unless the cap is substantially higher than the $58.5 million that is being projected.

 

I don't think hes coming to Houston anymore Houston still on his list of teams but not a believer now lol

 

Sorry if I implied the sign and trade is already worked out. What I meant was they already know LAL will do a S&T for TRob and RWhite if Dwight decides to go to Houston.

 

Actually, he pretty much is. We would have to waive and stretch Royce White's contract, so he'll only be around a $1M hit (factoring in the $490k roster cap hold) to our cap instead of the $1.7M, but it would be enough to sign Dwight to like a $20.3M deal or so instead of the $20.5M. I am pretty sure he'd be on board to take THAT minor of a paycut lol. We'd get to keep GSmith in this scenario too, or else just don't pick his contract up and we're golden on Howard.

 

If the Lakers do a S&T for Dwight to get TRob and RWhite I will eat my hat.

Tipjar bet that none of what you are suggesting comes true.

 

What? How do they know is? You make a lot of assumptions that I don't think are that warranted. There are other options out there...maybe even a complex 3 team trade w/ the Nets. Hard to do, but I know you much you love complicated trades lol.

 

You're basic premise is correct but your details are slightly off. The Nets just have to be below the tax apron at the completion of the deal and the trade is subject to salary matching (125%).

The Nets obviously don't have cap space so they can only take back 125% (+ 100K) of their outgoing salary. That means that in order to take back Howard's $20.5M contract then they'd have to send out $16.4M in the trade and still end up under the $74M tax apron.

In the deal the Nets would be adding an additional $4.1M in salary.

So, prior to doing the deal the Nets would have to cut their payroll by
$86M + $4.1M - x = $74M
$86M + $4.1M - $74m = x
16.1 = x

let's check the math:

Their payroll is $86M.
They reduce it by $16.1 M so it's now $69.9M

Now they do a SnT for Howard. That's $20.5M incoming and they'd have to match salaries so they'd have to send out $16.4M in the SnT deal.

The outgoing salary/incoming = 125% so they meet the salary matching criteria.

After the trade their payroll would be $74M so they are below the apron and able to receive a SnT player.

So they'd have to reduce the payroll by $16.1 prior to making a SnT deal for Howard. Then in the actual Howard SnT the nets would have to send out an additional $16.4M in salary that someone would have to take.

As you said, it's very doubtful that Brooklyn could pull that off with their current roster. If Howard decides to leave LA then the Lakers will look to maximize 2014 cap space and they won't want any part of that $16M+ in return for Howard.

I also don't see Brooklyn being able to shed $16M+ prior to a trade and an additional $16M+ in the trade itself. They simply don't have the assets.

 

I am in on this as well (on your end). I feel like I already made a non-monetary bet on this awhile ago on a similar trade bballholic was throwing out -- for how much credence I should give his future scenarios lol.

 

Nice breakdown. Time to scratch the Nets off my list like I did w/ the Hawks awhile ago...

Debunk Spurs next?

 

Even "super fan" James Goldstein thinks Dwight will leave for either Houston or Dallas :grin:

http://hoopshype.com/interviews/bar...little-bit-the-credit-phil-jackson-has-gotten