[CBS Sports] Howard no lock for Lakers; interested in Rockets

I think the lineup would be Bev/Harden/Parsons/JSmith/Dwight.

As he says, Dwight's main motivation (apparently) is to limit his minutes, Duncan-style, so that he can have a longer career and be fresher come playoff time. Let's assume the minutes distribution at center, then, is Howard at 32 and Asik at 16. Then a few minutes here and there where the two play together. This will vary wildly depending on the style of the opponent, so let's give Asik an average of 4 min/game at PF, putting him at 20 overall.

I understand where you're coming from -- on paper, I'd absolutely rather trade a 20 mpg Asik before a 30 mpg Lin, considering they make the same salary.

But at the same time, that move wouldn't make the Rockets a horrible team. It'd basically be the same lineup, but with Beverley in place of Lin, Brooks or another PG in place of Beverley and Asik in place of Greg Smith. I think I'd prefer the Lin/Beverley/Smith grouping over Beverley/Brooks/Asik, given the minutes distribution, but it's a small enough gap to where if having Asik here can seal the deal with Dwight, that's fine by me.

 

don't matter till July

 

We get your point, you've made it several times. And as I've told you repeatedly, Dwight is historically a very stubborn guy. When he became "intrigued" by Brooklyn... they sat atop his wishlist for months upon months. Once he puts his mind to something, he doesn't easily switch. Otherwise, he'd have been a Rocket last summer.

If reports are accurate and Dwight likes Houston, it does matter. Now.

 

I think doing it this way (trade Lin for Smith, keep Asik) is a horrible way to go about it, but I understand your point. If that is what Dwight wants, for his own selfish reasons, I think I would be okay with it too IF it is necessary to seal the deal. It leaves us worse off than alternatives, but not so much worse off where I think too much changes substantively. I hope it doesn't come to that.

Main reason why I think it won't is...would ATL really agree to a SnT of Smith for Lin? Even if Dwight is already off the table? I guess it is feasible...something to sell to the fans, though I don't see ATL fans being that excited about Lin. Maybe a 3 team trade and Lin goes to somewhere more receptive.

 

I think you'd see Asik and Dwight play more than just 4 minutes a game together. Asik needs to play at least 25 a game to maintain his value. I see something like:

Asik
Center - 27 min/game

Howard
Center - 21 min/game
Forward - 12 min/game

So they'd play roughly 12 min/game on the court together, or about a quarter a game. This rotation would:

a) limit Dwights minutes during the season.
b) keep Asik minutes at a starter-like level.
c) not cause a complete revamping of the offense.

When Dwight and Asik are on the floor together, we switch to an inside-out game. This is where Dwight gets his much sought after post touches. When either sits, we go back to our highly successful free flowing offense.

I absolutely agree on trading Lin if we get Dwight. We will need a more versatile guard running the point......someone in the mold of Sergio Llull. Getting rid of Lin, TRob and White gives us enough space to sign Dwight, Llull and Furkan Aldemir. Then we can use the room exception to sign Garcia.

Beverley / Llull
Harden / Llull / Garcia
Parsons / Garcia
Howard / GSmith / TJones / DMo
Asik / Howard / Aldemir

I don't see any way Josh Smith ends up in Houston unless he takes a huge paycut.

 

One other thing...I don't think trading TRob is going to be very difficult. Morey has made this type of move before without any guarantee of a subsequent trade/signing. I think this means we should expect to get something relatively close to fair value for him.

Lin, OTOH, is a completely different story. If we're selling Lin, something is afoot and the entire league will know it. IMO, you'll be lucky just to get rid of his salary and not have to give anything else up or take any salary back in return.

 

That's a very interesting scenario, and one I had not though much about before.

I agree that in that case the starting lineup would be:
Beverly (or other PG)/Harden/Parsons/Smith/Howard

I still think in this scenario, Asik could still get right at or around the 30 mpg he averaged this past season as a starter. With 96 total minutes to be divided up between the PF and C spots, the three of them could combine to form a very limited front-court rotation in which they all average 30+ mpg.

Anytime Asik is in, he would be the true C, so you would have alternating front-court combinations that could look something like this:

Asik/Howard for 15 minutes
Asik/Smith for 15 minutes
Howard/Smith for 18 minutes

Asik - 30 minutes total
Howard - 33 minutes total
Smith - 33 minutes total

This balance would result in always having one of Howard or Asik on the floor as the defensive anchor at center. Of course, since this is hypothetical, it doesn't leave any PF minutes for Jones, D-Mo etc., but in reality Smith could log about 10 of his 33 mpg at the SF position, Asik could log closer to 27 mpg and Howard 30 mpg. This would free up about 16 mpg for whichever of the younger bigs earns the time, with more time becoming available in situations where one of the three main bigs are in foul trouble, hurt or sick.

This also offers up the opportunity to potentially go with very big line-ups (with 4 plus defenders) down the stretch in certain scenarios, with Harden running the offense:

Harden/Parsons/Smith/Howard/Asik

Overall, I think it's a pretty exciting scenario, particularly because you can definitely afford the luxury of keeping one of the 2 defensive anchors in the game at all times.

 

Who is going to offer Josh Smith a max deal? Teams are starting to catch onto the idea that the worst thing you can do is give a max or almost-max contract to a guy who really isn't an elite player. Combine that with his age and the perception that his game is highly dependent on athleticism (not totally true, but it's out there), and I don't see teams beating down the door to offer him $15 million/year unless it's a very short-term deal. My guess is he ends up in the $11 million/year range, possibly less here given his reported desire to play with the Rockets and his friendship with Dwight.

I'd like to think you're right about Asik-Howard playing 12 minutes together on average, but we'll see. My suspicion is that they'd play about that much in favorable matchup settings (teams like Memphis, Indiana, etc.) but almost zero in others. That said, despite what some think, Asik isn't completely hopeless in the high post. He started shooting that 18-20 foot jumper a hair more toward the end of the year (supposedly he's great at it in practice) and he's a decent enough passer with good instincts.

It's still a longshot, but if Dwight commits in early July and Asik has almost a full summer to work with McHale, it might be feasible. Hope you're right.

 

That's been the rumor on Asik....that he's servicable at the the high post. The form on his jumper is ok, but I need to see it more in game before becoming a believer. Either way, you're right.....how much they play together will be somewhat game specific.

I just have a hard time figuring out how Josh Smith fits in with Asik and Dwight. That's $40 million invested into 2 spots, and the players really aren't that complementary.

That said, I am a little suspicous of how quiet Josh Smith has been. It does seem like he knows where he's going, or at least has a good idea of where he might end up.

 

The other part to this.....if the Rockets get Howard, Morey gets manager of the century for turning broken Mcgrady, broken Yao, Landry, Scola, a couple of #14 picks, and a 2nd rounder into Harden, Howard, Asik, and Parsons.

Simply amazing (if it happens).

 

Yeah, but I mean, he did not do it overnight. I love Morey, think he does a great job and that he definitely got robbed on Executive of the Year -- but, rebuilding over the course of 5 years is certainly not unprecedented. He and the organization deserve a lot of credit for doing so without blowing the team up, and not getting top draft choices -- but it is not as if he turned Yao, Scola and many of the other pieces you mentioned into what we have now. Like any rebuilding project, most of the change is not zero sum, it is old players leaving without compensation and new players coming in without giving anything up.

 

Stop posting.

 

I don't see why Atlanta would do a sign and trade if they know that's what will keep Dwight happy in houston or will be a requirement for him to come here. Their gm is daring josh smith to leave. Asik could help move horford to the 4 spot but they have soo much cap available I think they will be buyers and you know if it's a sign and trade they won't do it unless parsons goes over and the 3 spot is a hard spot to lose because this fa class is stronger at the 2 guard spot and also we wouldn't have money to get any decent sf.

 

LA Lakers @ LA Times ‏@latimeslakers
Dwight Howard's decision will require a leap of faith http://lat.ms/1beyQrR

 

ATL doesn't have the leverage to demand much. Smith is a FA and can go anywhere. He can sign with any team that'll throw money at him. ATL would risk him walking for nothing, they've got no angle other than to a team like Houston that would need to s&t to go over the cap.

 

It seems Morey is quite fond of Lin. He's always always praising him, always defend him when he is attacked, and I notice i always see Morey at Lin's charity events. You don't go to someone charity events just because you're their boss lol.

If Lin goes, its going to be for a major upgrade at the PG

 

Morey went to Kevin Martin's wedding. I think the only other Rockets staff to attend was Gersson. This was a few months before he "traded" him to New Orleans.

 

What...

 

Why does it say jr clutchfans in red?