[CBS Sports] Howard no lock for Lakers; interested in Rockets

*you've heard about

 

But when lines move significantly, it's usually due to big-money bettors who think they know something. The casual fans who see the Rockets/Howard in the headlines and decide to put down $10 or $20 don't dictate major line movement... it's the heavy hitters and when they all come down on one side, Vegas moves the lines to try and put similar weight on the other to lessen their risk.

The extreme movement over the past couple weeks makes clear that prominent bettors are putting a ton of money down on Houston. These folks are typically well connected. It obviously doesn't seal the deal, but it's a promising sign.

 

Initially, Houston was what 3/1 ? Now 5/7.

 

Last year he didnt defend Ppat, Morris/TD or Martin the way he defends Lin. Maybe Morey likes Lin as a player and is okay with his role in HOU (unless CP3 wants to come here)?!

 

Yup. We were +300 when I first saw the Sportsbook.com line in mid-May.

 

He hadn't just given Ppat, Morris, TD, or Martin a big contract either.

 

So what's to stop someone like Howard telling someone to bet on where be will sign? Pretty crazy

 

A Sicilian Necktie

 

I asked a similar question, but I'm guessing it's the fact that if he gets caught, it'll be a Pete Rose-like scandal. It's simply not worth the risk for him.

 

But I thought PPat was the world's best power forward!

 

Morey is more desperate to sell Lin and get rid of his salary than he was trying to sell the other guys.

 

What makes you think this?

 

Exactly. It is like major insider trading. If it is for a lot of money, people take notice and investigate...then it usually is rather traceable. If it is really hard to trace, like Howard telling a random stranger who also happens to be really rich (or have access to a lot of funds), then I guess he could get away with it...with absolutely no benefit. Not sure how the money could be moved to Howard afterwards without being detected.

 

Insider report saying that Lin's days are numbered if Dwight is coming to Houston. So, either Lin's days are numbered or the insider's days are numbered.

 

Oh, which insider report? That's weird that they would try to move Lin just because Dwight came. Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. Dwight's presence shouldn't really affect Lin's situation.

 

Ron from the G in this thread.

I don't think Morey is desperate to move Lin's salary, though. The reason Dwight's presence would impact Lin is that if Dwight absorbs our cap space, we'll likely be acquiring a starting PF (Josh Smith?) by trade instead of free agency. And if Dwight wants Asik here, then the team's most expendable trade asset becomes Lin.

 

Lin is easier to move than any other piece we have really. The money he brings in from marketing exceeds what his salary is. He will make any team a profit over what they pay him. Money is a big factor for NBA teams right now, as you can see by a lot of teams afraid of going into the tax. Lin is a money maker which makes his contract more than worth it to a lot of teams.

I'm in favor of keeping the starters in tact if we bring in Howard, just giving my opinion on why Lin is being talked about in these recent whispers.

 

False

 

That's sort of speculative, and also a bit hard to sell (due again to it being speculative). Not saying he doesn't pull in extra money, but how much extra money is due to him vs. the benefit of a team retaining the salary cap and getting x more wins to translate into x more team endorsements/ticket sales/better TV deal, etc. is pretty hard to calculative.

$8.3M is just a tough salary cap to move, and for teams that care about money (as you say), the owner now has to be willing to pay $5M next season and $15M the season after out of his own pocket. So he's actually paying $20M over the next 2 yrs from his pocket along with the $8.3M cap hit for 2 yrs.

 

That sounds like a horrible team though because then we REALLY would have an $8.3M backup center sitting on the bench for major minutes every game. Trading for Smith w/ Lin means we'd have to move either Parsons or Asik to the bench. Parsons seems like a much better glue guy and starter than as a bench player though, and there is all kinds of spacing issues with a lineup that is:

Bev/Harden/JSmith/Dwight/Asik

vs.

Lin/Harden/Parsons/Dwight/Asik

I know you're not endorsing this move (Lin for Smith), just saying, it would seem really odd and frankly kinda stupid imo.