http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/draft-notes-appel-astros-bryant-ramirez-jr.html Appel will surely seek "at least" the $7.79MM slot value with the first overall pick, writes Heyman. Jeff Luhnow told Ortiz that the Astros will set their own number (in terms of what they'd like to pay), and in some cases they'll be willing to go over or under that number. Luhnow adds: "That's what we did last year, and it worked out great because we were able to maximize what we got for our total pool of resources. We'll use that same strategy this year." If these two are both true, I dont see us getting Appel
I doubt Appel will seek above-slot. My guess is that at 1.1 he'd be signable for about 6.5-7 million and maybe lower. Can't see anyone, except maybe a generational talent with leverage like B Harper, getting slot or above slot at 1.1 under the new rules. The system with rapidly declining slot values gives teams at the very top of the draft a lot of leverage in negotiating below-slot pre-draft deals.
http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/6/4/4395338/mlb-draft-2013-team-budgets-and-first-round-values Slot values: 1-1 $7,790,400.00 1-2 $6,708,400.00 1-3 $5,626,400.00 If Appel doesnt agree to 6.7M, then the Astros could go another direction putting Appel at 1-2 at best.
To give some context, none of the top 3 picks last year, including Byron Buxton at 2, signed for slot or above last year.
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd 30m Just swapped emails w/2 directors in the top 5 picks & advisor of #1 pick candidate. All have no idea what the Astros will do. Crazy quiet.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Draft is so unpredictable that it appears the 'Stros and Cubs @<a href="https://twitter.com/1">1</a>-2 are in quandaries, and teams think the Rockies @<a href="https://twitter.com/3">3</a> go 1B Dominic Smith.</p>— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) <a href="https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/342443520038162432">June 6, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
It ensures the worst teams get the first crack at talent and ensures that they don't misleverage picks. Plus with 40 (formerly 50+) rounds, it would get ridiculous. Think of the salary dump trades (ill trade you player x for a 61st round pick....)
Welp.... today's the day, friends! For the schedule of events, please refer to post #378 of this thread.
After anticipating this day for at least the past 4 months; I can honestly say the only player currently in the conversation for 1-1 who I wouldn't be thrilled for the Astros to draft is Colin Moran. My final top 5: 1) Clint Frazier 2) Kris Bryant 3) Mark Appel 4) Jonathan Gray 5) Kohl Stewart 6) Colin Moran I can't jump off the Frazier bandwagon now. Good article on TCB.
The article somehow fails to mention that Luhnow drafted Shelby Miller in the first round in 2009. Kind of a pretty damn good pick. The data in that article is pretty worthless.
I think if Luhnow used that as leverage you could bring Appel down some say 6.9 but they won't get the #1 pick at 1-2 slot
They would get Moran at 1.4 or 1.5 slot. The only one that they probably wouldn't be able to get below 1.2 slot is Appel. I would venture to guess if they go any other direction, they will end up signing for 1.2 slot or less.
I won't pretend to know more about any of these guys than Luhnow and the scouting department. Just going off of what I read though, i'd love to see us take either of the college pitchers. If a guy like McCullers turns into a top of the rotation guy, and we take another top of the rotation guy here who pans out, that could really set us up for another long run of success
Rehashing.... Slot values: Post #191 1-1: $7,790,400 2-1 (40th overall): $1,397,200 3-1 (74th overall): $747,700 4-1 (107th): $481,900 5-1 (137th): $360,800 6-1 (167th): $270,200 7-1 (197th): $202,300 8-1 (227th): $159,700 9-1 (257th): $149,200 10-1 (287th): $139,400 Total: $11,698,800 I believe that the signing deadline this year is 4 PM Central on July 12.
There are a few that are open to taking him 1.1, including me. I know some will not like it, as the Astros can not afford to blow a #1 pick, but I wouldn't mind swinging for the fences on this one.
