Jim Bowden: Why the Astros should pick Kris Bryant Spoiler In their heyday during the late 1990s and early 2000s, the Houston Astros boasted a pack of “Killer B’s” and routinely sat atop the National League Central. A lot has changed. Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Lance Berkman are long gone, the Astros have been transplanted into the American League West under new ownership, and the team, which finished last or second-to-last in four of the past five seasons, is mired in last place again. They are in full rebuilding mode, working diligently since last season to restock a weak farm system. Of course, the upside to that failure is the Astros own the first overall pick in Thursday's draft. All season, two college pitchers -- Stanford’s Mark Appel and Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray -- flip-flopped as the projected top pick. While conventional wisdom dictates the Astros select one of them, to me the wiser choice would be to pass on both and select the next Killer B -- San Diego slugger Kris Bryant. The 21-year-old Bryant is the best position player in the draft and the closest to being major league-ready. He led the nation with 31 home runs this season, the most by a collegiate player since the NCAA moved to the BBCOR composite bat in 2011. By drafting Bryant, the Astros could have a star third baseman (or right fielder) for the next decade. To the right is how I grade Bryant's tool on the 20-80 scouting scale. (My full scouting report on Bryant is at the end of the blog.) Instead, the Astros likely will draft either Appel or Gray. Indeed, both are considered future top-of-the rotation starters, so no one would argue in picking one of them. Conceptually, a team's path to winning a World Series begins with a dominant No. 1 starter, but history indicates that using the No. 1 overall pick on a starting pitcher typically does not yield the same production and career longevity as a position player. When you look at the best No. 1 picks of all time, they are all position players -- Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Darryl Strawberry and Joe Mauer. Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane always told me that you need three pitching prospects for one spot on the team because one candidate will get hurt, one will regress and one will make it. What if your first overall pick is the one who gets hurt and blows out a shoulder? Or what if he regresses? Then what do you have to show for the season in which you lost 107 games that resulted in the first pick? All of that frustration for your fans, media, players, coaches and front office, and you end up with Bryan Bullington? If the players are of similar talent, you should always take the hitter over the pitcher at the top of the draft, and in 2010 I criticized the Pirates for just that. They took Jameson Taillon at No. 2 overall, one spot ahead of Manny Machado. While Taillon might develop into an elite starter, he is a much bigger risk. Imagine if Machado sat in the middle of the Pirates’ lineup for the next decade with Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez? To be sure, if there is a transcendent pitching talent who simply can’t be passed up, someone like Stephen Strasburg, who was clearly better than everyone else on the board, then the team should take him. However, that is not the case this year. The Astros will have a far better chance of success with an elite position player like Bryant, who will minimize the risk of a failure -- especially critical for a franchise that is starting over. Here's another way to look at it: Of the previous 20 AL and NL Cy Young Award winners combined, just two taken in the top three picks in the draft have won the award -- David Price and Justin Verlander. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement to take a starting pitcher No. 1 overall, or even in the top three. To minimize risk, the Astros should use the No. 1 pick overall to take Bryant, the best power bat in the draft. For me, he’s as close to a sure thing as a team can get in the draft. Berkman, Biggio and Bagwell might be long gone, but Bryant could serve as a franchise pillar, just as the aforementioned three did, for more than a decade. If Houston is truly rebuilding, drafting Bryant will help the cause significantly.
Correct....... if the "positive test" is true, it is equally possible that Gray's asking price went down enough that the Astros take him #1 and then use the saved money at 2(1).
Appel or Bryant. I think they need to plan for 2015 and I could see where either would be ready by then.
I wonder how much potentially having three of their future studs (Springer, Singleton and Bryant) all on their September roster intrigues the Astros... There's no question they want to launch Astros 2.0 sooner rather than later and giving the fans a reason to come to MMP every day (as opposed to every fifth day, for example) seems like it might influence their thinking... Castro, Singleton, Altvue, Bryant, Springer... I'd think tthat would make for a fun final 30 days of the season and pique interest for next year...
You really think they would bring up Bryant this season? I don't think they have any need to rush him and will drop him in AA for the rest of the season.
AA? Bryant has to prove he can hit loA pitching first. If Bryant is 1.1, my guess is that he starts in Tri-City and gets a loA promotion late summer.
Can't see it. Hard to predict what happens, since the roster could change a lot by the end of the trade deadline (including waivers), but I don't see them waiving people just to give a bunch of cameos. 40 man roster is full, and Singleton, Springer, and our 2013 #1 aren't on it. Singelton is no problem, since he will be added in the offseason anyways. Don't forget, there is a handful of other guys outside the 40-man roster that are having seasons worthy of callups as well.
Listening to Keith Law's podcast with Jim Callis I doubt Astros pick Bryant, conscensus being the leverage he can command during negotiations whereas Appel and Gray are college seniors. I think Astros take Appel though it's neck and neck with Gray and both are likely to be outstanding pitchers. Appel is more polished and commands three above average pitches. Gray is more explosive but will take longer developing off speed/breaking stuff
Not to mention, as a senior, Appel can take negotiations passed the deadline. And if you fail to sign a player, you lose his draft slot allotment from your bonus pool. The person who they pick will almost assuredly have a handshake deal in place.
Here is my question: If Appel turned us down last year because of money basically, is there any reason to believe that his 6M demand has changed one bit? Would/should the Astros pass on him if thats his ultimatum again this year?
I'm thinking the same thing. Maybe he'll take the slot for number 2 to be 1.1 and pitch for his (former) hometown team? Speculating here, but maybe he saw what happened to him last year and knows the Astros aren't messing around so if he wants to go number 1 and pitch for the 'stros, he's going to have to make a concession which will ultimately help his team out down the line by getting another player over slot later in the draft. Then again, it ain't my Millions to lose
IIRC, he wasn't willing to sign for $6M, which is why the Astros passed (and several more teams as well).
calling up bryant this year? no chance. i think springer himself is about 50/50, singleton almost no chance. but anyway, if they wanted to fill the seats for 30 days, i don't think singleton, springer, bryant vs. just singleton and springer would make much of a difference.
I dont think the Astros would promote Bryant to the Majors anyways, they would first let matt dominguez develop a bit more. He's having a pretty decent year and easily the best defender on the team.
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd 30m Just swapped emails w/2 directors in the top 5 picks & advisor of #1 pick candidate. All have no idea what the Astros will do. Crazy quiet.
With so few able to watch them on TV, no way "influencing fans for 2014" play any role AT ALL in promotions in September
