Who Will Be the #1 Overall Draft Pick?

IMHO I think Appel wants to be the first overall player taken in the draft. Houston was his home for the first twelve years of his life, so there's familiarity. Ultimately I think it comes down to being the perceived top player in the draft and taken number one vs. dropping due to sign ability concerns. I have no doubt that Appel wanted to get his degree and is the biggest reason that he went back to school, but hurt ego was probably a large factor since he fell all the way to the Pirates. Wouldn't surprise me if Appel is pushing Boras to be "flexible" financially to secure one of the top spot, if not the top spot.

 

I'm wondering if this coupled with the recent news about Gray testing positive for Adderal without having a prescription for it makes Appel the #1 pick.

 

Stewart is a guy I absolutely would want in this draft. He is not going to make it to 2:1 so you can forget about him there. In terms of upside , he has the most out of any pitcher in this draft. The team that drafts him will have an opportunity to bring him along at a nice easy pace and try to keep him injury free. I think the risk of high school pitchers is a bit overblown nowadays. College pitchers carry almost as much risk and don't always come with the same ceiling. The top pitching prospects like bundy and tailon are ranked high despite the fact that they are high school pitchers. There is no reason that Stewart cannot be viewed similarly. He is a better athlete than Appel or Gray and he should be as good of a bet as those two to remain healthy. In terms of pitching in this draft I think its between Appel and Stewart for the best with Gray being number 3.

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Beginning to sense <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Astros">#Astros</a> leaning to Appel if $ fit like they want. <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23mlbdraft">#mlbdraft</a></p>&mdash; Jim Callis (@jimcallisBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/342112262460428288">June 5, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

I agree with you about the risk factor being similar between high school and college pitchers. I think it's just the fact that college pitchers are typically closer to being ready for the bigs that attracts people.

That said, I'd love Kohl Stewart. All the negatives I hear about Appel's slider/slurve just worriy me.

I really like Meadows and Frazier as well. Pitching seems to be a much bigger need at the pro level today, but stocking up on such high upside offensive talent never feels like a bad thing.

 

Comment From Jeffrey LoriaJeffrey Loria: ]
Rodon 1-1 next year?

Thursday May 30, 2013 2:20 Jeffrey Loria
2:21 Kiley McDaniel: Possible, but definitely backed up this year. I think he's next year's Austin Meadows as people had it bashed into their skulls that he's David Price by Baseball America and Rodon was really bad at times this year and has some arm stiffness. He's a fringe top 10 guy for me. Trea Turner is clearly superior and Tyler Beede is a little better for me too. Watch out for Sean Newcomb.


http://sbb.scout.com/2/1295349.html

 

Where is Hunter Virant projected in this years draft? Since the Astros didn't have enough bonus pool money left after signing Ruiz to lure him away from college.

Could we take another shot?

 

He isn't eligible for another 2 years after going to a 4 year university.

 

Positive test for Gray probably moved Appel ahead.

 

Smoke and mirrors

Trust nothing.

 

agreed...oddly enough, it took me until the day before the draft to get burnt out reading speculation and predictions.

 

fwiw - ol' dicky justice said he thinks the stros are leaning positional player

 

I don't see it with Tyler Beede.

Trea Turner at 1-1 would be interesting. Typical 1-1 position players have potential to have plus power, while Turner does not. He's a lead off hitter. Reminds me of Nolan Fontana with far superior tools.

 

I hope so that would likely mean Bryant.

Frazier or Bryant please stock up on high ceiling arms in later rounds. Appel and Gray are no Strasberg or Price.

 

Strasburg, Price, and Verlander all had huge strikeout numbers. While Gray and Appel have good strikeout numbers, they aren't mindblowing like those guys. The guys who busted (on talent, not injury) usually put up K numbers in the 9-10 k/9 range.

The main reason why Carlos Rodon should still be the 2014 choice.

 

With his best stuff sure, but the decline in stuff and the complaints of pitching through arm stiffness combined with high pitch counts has me cautious. If he is back next year with his 2012 stuff and no injuries, then count me in.

 

His stuff was good enough to strike out about 14k/9 this year. I wasn't completely blown away by him in the start I watched against Florida State, but I saw 95mph heat and an impressive slider. Plus a lot of weak contact.

 

McDaniels saw him earlier in the spring where he was 92-96 with a plus slider in the 1st inning and then 88-90 with an average or worse slider for the rest of the game. He said the scouts he spoke to reported that Rodon's stuff had back up like that throughout most of the early spring. When asked about his stuff after the game Rodon said he's been experiencing arm stiffness throughout the early part of the season. Apparently he rebounded and his stuff was more consistently good in the later portion of the year.

There are a lot of innocuous reasons for low velocity, especially early in the year when the weather is bad, and maybe it's not a big concern going forward. But he's been ridden hard through his collegiate career and any reports of arm problem are a concern. If he's healthy, as a lhp with two plus pitches, then yes he absolutely belongs in any 1.1 discussion. But there is risk involved with taking any pitcher high in the draft and with fluctuating stuff, high pitch counts, and this years arm stiffness there are some additional major red flags with this guy.