[CBS Sports] Howard no lock for Lakers; interested in Rockets

Puh-lease.

The Rockets with Howard, a 23-year-old Harden, a 24-year-old Parsons, a full collection of role players (Asik or whatever you get for him, Lin, Beverley, etc.), and a proven GM and owner are still a more attractive basketball situation than Howard, a 28-year-old Paul with consistent leg injuries, Horford, a supporting cast of hot garbage and an unproven GM and owner for a franchise that's never won big.

 

Not to mention tax considerations coupled the fact that with the projected cap at 58.5m both D12 and CP3 would have to take significant salary cuts (from the max). Atlanta has a very uncertain line-up with Howard, CP3 Horford, Teague and no room left to acquire much more.

Houston definitely has the advantage. Agreed.

 

Howard and Paul have the advantage. Agreed?

 

They'd need to renounce Teague, too, so cross him off the projected roster.

The reason I don't take the Atlanta scenario seriously is that it doesn't stand out nearly enough to outweigh the enormous organizational negatives. Franchise has never won on a high level. Unproven owner. Unproven GM. Almost zero surrounding talent in place. State income tax combined with no 5th year.

The only way ATL makes sense is if CP3, Howard and Horford are beyond convinced that the three of them alone makes an NBA title contender. I don't buy it. CP3 has never been the focal point on a team that advanced to even the conference finals. He has a history of leg injuries. Dwight has his back situation and offensively doesn't need to be the focal point. Horford is a good-but-not-great big man, even in the East. Oh, and speaking of the East, there's this guy named LeBron they have to get through just to get to the Finals.

For Dwight, there aren't enough positives in Atlanta to outweigh a similar (if not better) basketball situation in Houston along with a proven franchise/owner/GM and the tax situation. For CP3, there aren't enough positives to outweigh the city of Los Angeles, a still-developing Blake Griffin and competent supporting cast, and the 5th year.

Miami's "Big 3", when they signed in 2010, were substantially better from a talent perspective. Wade had been the alpha dog on a championship team and LeBron was LeBron. Bosh's numbers were far superior to current Horford. They also had a proven basketball executive running things and an owner that had already spent enough to win a title. They were good enough themselves and had the confidence that they'd be surrounded with the right pieces. Not happening in Atlanta in 2013.

 

A quick question...a stupid one at that, but say we were to get Dwight haha...

would he be 12 or would beverley stay 12?

 

It would depend on if Dwight wanted #12 and if Beverley was willing to give it up. I know T-Rob gave up 0 for Brooks recently.

 

I could see Bev giving it up and wearing #21, which he did at Arkansas.

 

Laker fan here.

Definitely expect you guys to land Dwight. He just never fully embraced being a Laker imo. What Lakers can offer is a old roster like lasts years and then he would have to believe in the franchise to rebuild with cap space from 2014 and on.

The rockets can offer a immediate young star to pair with Dwight for years to come.

Its a matter of its he willing to go another year with the older Lakers roster that finished the season 28-10 but couldn't stay healthy and eventually just was decimated by injuries. Obviously there is also the extra money he can get from the Lakers but with the decreased taxes in Houston not sure how much more money he does get from the Lakers deal.

He just didn't seem happy in LA. Hes pretty sensitive from what I gather. I definitely see his faults but I would love to still have him and see him work through those faults as a Laker. I do think hes gonna regain his form from before the back surgery.

I will say Hawks would be the other team in the race if they can convince CP3 and Dwight to join forces.

 

FO aside, I don't think it can be emphasized enough that the reason why the Rockets stand out is because of the number of movable assets they have in young players, potential picks to work with, flexibility in how to deal with Asik, and perhaps most importantly Parsons on that insanely cheap contract. Parsons by himself allows the Rockets to put a quality team on the floor by allowing them to divert his deserved salary to other players. Very few teams can match that since most other role players on other teams are getting paid close to fair market value. I think Parsons as a player and the flexibility his contract gives the Rockets is what puts us as front runners for the next two years in any major acquisition.

 

Thanks for your insight.

Question:

How confident is the Laker fan base in the ability of Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak to quickly rebuild?

The Lakers have had very few periods in NBA history where they went more than a few years as a non-factor, but when consider that a.) the new rules of the CBA make it more difficult for the organization to be able to field a better team simply by being willing to spend a lot more money than everybody else and b.) Jim Buss taking over basketball operations there, I have no trouble believing it could easily be 5 years before the Lakers have re-established themselves.

I'm interested in your thoughts.

Oh, and in regards to your question about how much more money Dwight would make as a Laker - the answer, according to Forbes, is that he'd actually make millions less playing in LA over the first 4 years (when he'd undoubtedly opt out for a new contract anyway).

So he would earn more money here. Not less.

 

Disagree. CP3, Howard, and Horford >> Harden,Howard,Parsons

 

I didn't deny that. Unfortunately for you, basketball is a 5-on-5 game with 12-man rosters, not a quick game of 3-on-3. That was my point.

The trio of Harden-Howard-Parsons is close enough that when you factor in surrounding talent, the team's management and ownership (i.e. their ability and/or likelihood of bringing in more surrounding talent), injuries and ages, it clearly tips the scale in Houston's favor.

 

Disagree with your disagree. You're forgetting all the other stuff...the ownership, the city itself, etc., but most importantly, you're forgetting about role players and the salary cap haha.

If ATL got CP3 + Howard w/ Horford, they'd have only 5 players and be less than million short of the $58.5M salary cap haha. Sure, CP3 + Lou Williams + Horford + Howard (+ John Jenkins) sounds pretty strong...until you realize that is about $57.8M...in fact, w/ 7 x $490k min. roster cap holds, they wouldn't even be able to sign CP3 and D12 to maxes...both would have to take some sort of pay cut roughly $1.4M each. Either that or move Lou Williams for very little/no salary back (which only makes the supporting cast even worse).

Remember, we're not just comparing Harden + Parsons + Howard vs. CP3 + Horford + Howard...we're comparing the whole team.

 

I think all Lakers have to do is fire MDA ..

 

+ hire Phil Jackson as coach.

I don't see that happening.

 

This.

The bottom line is that unless you think a roster of CP3, Howard, Horford and nine scrubs can win a title... then the other factors will be considered heavily. For starters, as you said, they'd be capped out. Beyond that, even if opportunities somehow presented themselves... the GM isn't proven to bring in talent and more importantly, the owner/franchise hasn't proven that it can spend to sustain it. Oh, and CP3 and Horford will each be 28, while Dwight is 27 and entering his 10th season. So if they don't find that surrounding talent in a hurry, it won't matter because they'll be on the downhill side of their careers.

There are just way, way too many questions about Atlanta unless you believe that CP3, Howard, Horford and whatever can contend next season. I don't find that reasonable at all. And if you accept that premise, the likelihood of Morey putting a championship team around the 3 in Houston is far better than Ferry doing so in Atlanta.

P.S. Lou Williams is coming off a torn ACL, too, so it's not like many teams will be in that market.

 

I'm going for the group with the less surgical procedures.

 

There is definitely a lack of confidence in Jim Buss by a lot of the fan base. However Mitch is very well respected. Most fans just want Jim to not handcuff Mitch. The biggest errors we have seen from Jim have been the last two coaching hires. I think a lot of us wanted Rick Adelman over Mike Brown and reports were Mitch wanted Adelman as well and Jim wanted Mike Brown. Then the whole Phil D'antoni fiasco really soured fans on Jim Buss.

Me personally I think Jim is learning his way. If he can be more trusting of Mitch and his ideas then they will be fine going forward. Lakers will always be a destination and a respected franchise. They will have cap room in 2014.

Obviously I don't expect Dwight to re-sign. So going into 2014 they won't have that star player lure FA's to LA. Who really knows what is gonna happen. After Lakers lost to Dallas they nearly traded for CP3 out of nowhere. After they lost to OKC they traded for Dwight and Nash to pair with Kobe and Pau and everyone was praising them. Anything can happen.

As for 5 years to become a factor again? That is very possible, but in reality 5 years to rebuild really isn't that long of a time. The rules have changed so the Lakers have too as well, but LA and the Lakers will always be a good destination that isn't going to change imo. Teams like the Bucks/Bobcats have trouble luring Free agents. Lakers if they have the money available are just better of in the matter. If Dwight leaves rebuilding will he harder and take longer. We can't really predict what is gonna happen in terms of FA's and the draft.

Magic got HIV and retired in 91 after his final NBA finals appearance. Then in 1996 Lakers signed Shaq and traded for Kobe. So that took 5 years. I think some Laker fans are holding out hope that Dwight re-signs then in 2014 they sign Lebron etc etc. I think we both know those are unlikely scenarios. I wont close the door on that until for sure Dwight is gone, but yea I think it will be a couple of years before Lakers are a top 5 team again.

 

Thanks for the perspective. What's your take on how the majority of Lakers fans view the whole Howard situation? Are they "fed up," like so many here were with McGrady during the last days? Willing to forgive and forget the indecision? Glad if he goes? Want him locked up as the centerpiece of the Lakers for the next 5 years, assuming Kobe eventually retires? (it comes to every great player) Are they, in the main, as optimistic as you are about Howard returning to form? That comment intrigues more than any other. If you watched him closely during the season, and I assume you did, was he showing signs of the "old Dwight" towards the end of the season?

edit: just saw the post above, where you probably addressed some of this. Pardon me while I read it!

 

Bill Simmons and Colin Cowherd discuss D12, both agree Houston makes the most sense

@6:00

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=9341535&s=espn