[CBS Sports] Howard no lock for Lakers; interested in Rockets

(Bima has already explained this before but....)

Larry Coon: Where will Dwight Howard land?

Spoiler

Two Texas teams -- the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets -- have their eyes on the Dwight Howard prize this summer. One has a realistic shot at landing him. For the other, it's a goal that probably will remain elusive.

Howard, one of the leaders of the 2013 free-agent class (along with Chris Paul), will have no shortage of suitors when teams are allowed to contact players beginning July 1. Despite his up-and-down season with the Lakers, he remains an impact player and one of the top -- if not the top -- centers in the league, and many teams are sure to come calling.

Having the means to sign him, however, is another matter. As the incumbent, the Lakers are in the driver's seat from a collective bargaining agreement standpoint. They have his Bird rights, which means they can sign him without needing to worry about cap room. They can also give him a longer contract (five years instead of four) and bigger raises (7.5 percent rather than 4.5 percent) than any other team.

For the remaining 29 teams, obtaining Howard means either freeing up about $20.5 million of cap space or working out a suitable sign-and-trade deal with the Lakers while persuading Howard to take a smaller amount than he can get in L.A.

But even though the Lakers have the advantage on paper, many other factors point to Howard being obtainable. His tribulations in Los Angeles are well documented -- the lack of youth and athleticism in the team's supporting cast, his difficulty fitting into Mike D'Antoni's system, the discomfort that sometimes comes with playing on a team led by Kobe Bryant and the prospect of Bryant's extended absence and possible adjustment issues when he returns.

Enter the Rockets and Mavericks. Here is how both teams might be maneuvering to try to lure Howard to Texas.


The Rockets

Rockets GM Daryl Morey likes to keep his options open. It worked to his advantage last year when he was successful in snatching Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik from the Knicks and Bulls, respectively, and came close to landing Howard in a trade with the Magic. After failing to acquire Howard over the summer, Morey turned his attention to James Harden, who this season led his hastily reassembled Rockets team to the West's final playoff spot.

This summer, Morey and the Rockets are similarly situated to make a big move. The league recently informed teams that the 2013-14 salary cap is projected to come in at $58.5 million (although a lot of bean counting remains to be done before the cap amount is officially announced July 9). Currently, the Rockets are committed to about $55 million in contracts for 2013-14.

While being $3.5 million below the cap may not seem like much, this number is misleading. The Rockets' roster is filled with players Morey can shed to create cap room. The team holds an option on Francisco Garcia for $6.4 million, which it surely will not pick up. Several other players -- James Anderson, Patrick Beverley, Aaron Brooks, Carlos Delfino, Tim Ohlbrecht, Chandler Parsons and Greg Smith -- have nonguaranteed or partially guaranteed contracts. Morey could walk away from these seven players and owe only $600,000 on Parsons' partial guarantee. A more likely scenario will be that he will keep Parsons and Beverley and waive everyone else.

By dumping salary in this manner, the Rockets would be committed to just $40.5 million. After adding in three required cap holds to account for empty roster spots, the team would have about $16.6 million in cap room.

That's a significant amount, but still not enough for Howard. Due to the league's rules for maximum salaries, Howard will be able to command up to $20.5 million next season. But Morey and the Rockets will have several options at their disposal.

1. Convince Howard to take less
How badly does he want out of Los Angeles? He already will be forced to take a lesser contract if he leaves the Lakers. Is he willing to sacrifice a little more to join Harden, Lin, Asik and the other Rockets in Houston? One advantage in the Rockets' favor is the lack of state income taxes in Texas, although this advantage is much smaller than frequently advertised due to the taxes players pay for road games in most other states.

2. Clear additional salary from the roster
The Rockets are widely reported to be shopping second-year forward Thomas Robinson -- acquired in a midseason trade with Sacramento -- to free up additional cap space for Howard. Should they succeed in trading Robinson with no salary coming back, they would clear an additional $3 million from the team's books, increasing the team's cap room to about $19.6 million. This is within a million dollars of Howard's assumed asking price. Further savings could be realized by moving players such as Royce White and Terrence Jones.

3. Work out a sign-and-trade with the Lakers
Under the rules of the CBA, the Lakers are not allowed to receive a player via sign-and-trade, but they are allowed to send a player out that way. This means that if Dwight decides he wants to leave for another team, the three parties have an opportunity to work out a trade. For the Lakers, it would be a chance to get something in return for their departing All-Star. And by sending the right players to the Lakers, the Rockets would clear enough salary from their books to sign Howard at his full asking price.
If the Lakers were faced with the prospect of losing Howard for nothing, would they accept, say, Jones and Donatas Motiejunas in exchange for helping deliver Howard to Texas? Would they try to leverage the situation and attempt to pry Parsons out of the Rockets' hands? Or maybe they pass, telling Dwight, "If you want to go to Houston, we're not helping you."

So how realistic is the Rockets' scenario? According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, the Rockets have already received "hopeful signals" that Howard is seriously considering a jump to the Rockets this summer. Through a combination of dumping salary and Howard accepting a little less, landing in Houston is a plausible scenario for him -- with or without the Lakers' help.

The Mavericks

The Mavs' prospects for acquiring Howard received a boost this spring when O.J. Mayo announced he would not pick up his option and will test free agency. Should he follow through, the Mavericks will be in a similar situation to their neighbors in Houston.

With Mayo off the books, the Mavericks will have about $37.2 million committed to five players: Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Jae Crowder and Jared Cunningham. They also will have Josh Akognon and Bernard James on nonguaranteed contracts, so these players can be released to save a little extra money. The Mavs also will have their first-round draft pick this summer, who will count about $1.66 million against their cap until signed. Finally, like Mayo, Marion has an option on his contract that will allow him to end his contract early and become a free agent. He would have to forgo $9.3 million to test the free-agent waters, though, so his opting-out has to be regarded as unlikely at best.

All totaled (and assuming Mayo opts out), this would leave the Mavs with about $16.7 million in cap room. This is slightly better than the Rockets' most plausible scenario of having $16.6 million. And like the Rockets, the Mavs would need to find a way to clear additional salary off their books. But this is where the similarity ends. How will the Mavs clear the needed additional cap space to make a run at Howard? Their work is done if Marion opts out, but that is unlikely to happen.

Their best option -- if they're really set on making a run at Howard -- might be to try to package the No. 13 pick with Carter in a trade. The Mavs could even send out $3 million cash in the deal, which would almost entirely offset Carter's salary. The team would then have just enough cap room to sign Howard, by about $30,000. But if this happens, the Mavs' roster would consist of Howard, old veterans Nowitzki and Marion, two role players in Crowder and Cunningham -- and that's it. They'd be capped out, with only the $2.65 million midlevel exception and minimum salary contracts available to fill out their lineup.

In contrast, Howard would join a Rockets lineup that includes Harden, Asik, Lin, Parsons and Beverley. There's an old joke where two guys are being chased by a bear. One guy yells to the other, "We'll never outrun this bear!" The other one replies, "I don't need to outrun the bear. I just need to outrun you." While either the Rockets or the Mavs can do the work required to create the cap space needed to sign Howard, the Rockets are the team that's better situated to win the race. For Rockets fans, there is reason for hope. For Mavericks fans, the notion is a little far-fetched.​

 

<script src="http://player.espn.com/player.js?playerBrandingId=4ef8000cbaf34c1687a7d9a26fe0e89e&adSetCode=91cDU6NuXTGKz3OdjOxFdAgJVtQcKJnI&pcode=1kNG061cgaoolOncv54OAO1ceO-I&width=576&height=324&externalId=espn:9341409&thruParam_espn-ui[autoPlay]=false&thruParam_espn-ui[playRelatedExternally]=true"></script>

 

Bill Simmons - 6:00 minute mark.

-LA was too big for him.

-The fact he couldn't handle LA is kinda amazing.

-Not sure this is the place he can succeed.

-Go to Houston - Smaller market, Harden can handle crunch time, less pressure, no state tax, popular city for basketball players.

-Could they recreate the 2009 Orlando team? It was Dwight and shooters. They could create a better version of that.

-That compared to coming back to LA - no Kobe for half the season, Gasol is probably leaving, Nash is broken down, bad role players, that's a bad situation. This is year 11, my career is going downhill, not uphill. I want to get a good situation.

-Situation thing and I made this point when I wrote a week and a half ago - his career is going in the wrong direction. ... You know what you're getting at this point - 18 points, 12 rebounds, he'll miss half his free throws, he'll block 3 shots a game, he's not fun to watch. If you're doing it, you're overpaying him to get the wins. He can only win in a certain type of situation and I don't think it's Los Angeles.

 

Yup, they would have to get rid of both. That doesn't mean they can't return but that's no guarantee either.

I agree, they would be thin on perimeter shooters.