I know this has been brought up before in passing, but Im beginning to think that this news signifies the Rockets are brewing something up here, and it might have more to do with the possibility of working a S&T for Josh Smith that could come after they sign Dwight. First off- I just dont see Josh Smith alone being a single free agent target for the Rockets. It doesn't make any sense to me. If Josh Smith is signed above 10 mil a year, he locks them in a situation where they are going to be stuck with him for some time, and there are no guarantees that him alone would make them a contender. However, if the Rockets feel they will somehow be able to sign Dwight as an un-restricted free agent, It should be no surprise that they will start probing around now about potentially luring Josh Smith to Houston at the same time, and force Atlanta to start looking at getting a package like Asik/D-Mo/Smith/Picks for Smith. .................................................................................. So lets look deeper into this- The real issues are- -What do the Rockets do ahead of time to get rid of Thomas Robinson's salary to be able to sign Dwight as an UFA? -What can they do to entice Josh Smith to take less money(roughly 8 to 10 mill a year) -What can they do to get Atlanta to agree to take back Asik & young players? IMO- The most important issue here is being able to move Thomas Robinson's salary ASAP. You must be able to keep as many assets as possible for Atlanta to jump at the chance of getting that many assets to agree to a S&T. If the Rockets had to move Asik or Lin in order to sign Dwight Howard, this deal is most likely a bust. -As for Josh Smith taking less- That all depends on the market, and what Atlanta is willing to pay Smith. If he's getting max offers, this is going to be a tough call. If he's getting offers like say... 4 years 40 million, and the Rockets are offering 4 years 37 million, I think he will make the jump to Houston to contend with Dwight/Harden. Moves that would have to be made to sign both Dwight & Josh Smith- -Trade Delfino/Brooks by Draft night. If no deals arise, waive -Waive Ohlbrecht, (possibly Anderson too) -Move Robinson for nothing but potential future pick -Move Royce White or stretch if needed -Sign Dwight Howard as UFA -Offer Atlanta huge S&T offer they cannot refuse Deal that should get it done- Asik, Terrence Jones, & future 1st (9.8 mil in salary next season) for Josh Smith. If Josh Smith is commanding more money that 9.8 mil in his first year, you could always add either Josh Smith or Motiejunas. PG: Lin, Beverley SG: Harden SF: Parsons PF: J. Smith C: Howard, Smith Then Morey would need to find a way to add a significant amount of role players on the cheap. If anyone can find them, its Morey Im not saying this is likey, but I do think the Josh Smith to Houston news is key that they are at least going to probe Smith for the possibility of making this happen.
Josh Smith would be a good fit for this team. He's just not worth a max-level salary. If nothing else, Morey knows how to sign players at an appropriate or better value, so I don't have concerns about him "overpaying" Josh Smith. It makes sense for him to be Plan B to Dwight/CP3.
I am not gonna quote dobro1229's long reply. I think you are forgetting that Morey prides himself on flexibility. If we land Dwight and S&T Asik for Smoove, Morey will lose all flexibility. Here is my take on what Morey will do. Morey will go after JSmoove ONLY if we don't land Dwight (plan B)---unless Dwight specifically asks for Smoove. The gap between Smoove and any one of our PF's is greater than the gap betweem Dwight and Asik. If we don't land Dwight after we clear most of our cap, it makes perfect sense to upgrade our weakest position. This upgrade to Smoove will provide extra 5-8 wins on top of projected 50-win season. However, Morey will only sign Smoove under favorable conditions, meaning his contract is short and easily movable. By signing Smoove for 3-year, $35M or less, Morey will still have enough room ($8M or more) to sign quality role players. If we somehow land Dwight this summer and he doesnt request Smoove, Morey will try to trade Asik for a PF's, someone who is currently undervalued and can produce almost on the same level as Smoove AND whose contract is less than Asik's $8.3M. This is the Morey's plan A. Hit three birds with one stone; not only we can upgrade on 5, we can also upgrade on 4, and leave small room. Here is a list of PF's who fit the profile: Amir Johnson, Ersan Ilyasova, West (if less than $8.3M) If Morey can't find his ideal PF this offseason, he will just wait. Let Dwight plays with Asik on a experimental basis. If our new twin tower works out, great. If not, he will wait to a team who is in dire need of a Center, then Morey's vulturous instinct will kick in. Joe Johnsone as lockdown defender??? JJ was never a good defender, not before, now now, and will never will be. He is a liability on defense. JJ was never as good as Harden, and never will be.
This is a few scenerios I have gathered from countless Fans.... Lin harden Parsons Smith Howard Lin Harden Parsons Howard Asik Lin Hraden Parsons West Howard**Most realistic choice** CP3 Harden Parsons West Howard **** My Choice Bev Harden PArsons Smith Howard Bev Harden Parsons West Howard A list of line-ups I have been seeing posters (including myself) talk about... Question is, which line-up is the best fit and how can we accomplish this???
Good feedback. Thanks. I get what your saying in a few different aspects. Mainly the flexibility portion, and the part in bold regarding the amount of impact in the free agent signings. Your right about the gap between positions being dramatically different. One of the other things that would be something to think about too, is if they are really planning to make a go at Dwight, & Smith in S&T, that could leave them with only 7 players under contract. They still would have their exceptions, and vet min contracts to use, but very little flexibility to add Delfino-like players to round out their rotation. -Still I find the Josh Smith report interesting in a few different aspects. I think there is more going on here with their plans than we might know.(I know Duh... its Morey right). Based on everything we have heard coming from the likes of Feigan, and Morey's comments the other day about 1A(Dwight) & 1B(CP3) and then standing pat/bargain one year deals being plan 2, Going after Josh Smith hard just doesn't seem to fit what we've been hearing unless Morey has something else planned up his sleave. Also Morey is probably better off not bothering contacting Josh Smith on July 2nd if all he's going to offer him is a bargain ( larger Delfino-like) contract. It will be a waste of time. Atlanta, the Bucks( with a S&T), & possibly Cleveland will surely offer him a 4 year/ 40 million dollar deal at the very least. Morey has to be smart enough to know that he's going to have to shell out that kind of money at the very least to get him. Just my opinion is that Morey only really targets Smith this early because of some sort of trick up his sleave plan. Not sure if its Dwight/Smith, or Smith/ and whoever else..., but Im expecting come July 1st, Morey could pull something out of left field yet once again.
He's the kind of aging, newly popular, injury prone player on a downward trend that CD would have targeted. He wont move the needle for us long term. Unless it's a 1 year rental, signing David West would signal defeat by DM. Cant see it happening.
DON'T WANT AS A PLAN B. He's more like a Plan C. If we don't get Dwight, and our starting lineup looks like this next year: Lin Harden Parsons Smith Asik Then we will just get bounced out of the first round again. Howard(or Love) or bust in my opinion. If we can't get either, then I say just wait until next year's free agency.
Agree 100%. Rockets cannot afford to settle with the flexibility they have now or it could just leave them like the hawks , constant first or second round exit every year
i don't see west leaving anyway. for the argument that the gap between our 4's now and smoove is bigger than dwight and asik..is true. but the gap between dwight and asik is bigger than the gap with the pf's we have and the pf we could presumably get for asik. dwight when he's healthy is a top 4-8 player in the league.
Is it possible what you heard would go along with a Howard signing? Because Smith makes absolutely perfect sense as a complement to Dwight. Otherwise, not impossible but a longshot.
There's absolutely no way Josh Smith is going to take a contract that pays him less than 10 million annually. He's not going from 13 million a year to 8.5 or 9 million a year. 11 million? Maybe. He's worth 10-11 million a year. I wouldn't want to give him a max deal by any means, but to suggest he take 8 or 9 million is kind of insulting to him.
If he's the best player on team, yes. If he's #2 or #3, not necessarily. He'd be #2 to Harden and #3 if Dwight was added. Can't give him a max deal and think he's going to carry your franchise, though. I agree with that. For 10-11, maybe 12 million a year, though, he can be a difference-making #2.
Once DH commits, I think it's easier to move TRob + Jones for a future 1st round pick, then trade Asik+White+Cash to Atlanta for JSmith. Atlanta loss a roster spot but get Asik, if Rockets really want Josh.
