It's obvious, Carl is just blatant troll, trying to get a reaction out of people, with his "I told you so" attitude. Nobody cares. He's been on this board for a couple of years yet he's acting like some newbie scrub. Kinda sad really...
If Patterson, Aldrich and Douglas are still on the team, the Rockets get swept by one of Denver, San Antonio or Oklahoma City, James Harden gets tagged with the "playoff choker" label, and the Rockets aren't even in the discussion for Dwight. Additionally if Pat is still getting his ineffective 26 minutes a game, you have no idea of what Motiejunas, Jones or Smith is capable of, and you can't dump him for cap-space anyway since you have no PF that you can trust in. I think Patterson is a better player than Robinson, but he'd have lost even more value than TRob by having the stink of getting outplayed and benched for small-ball during the playoffs. For better or worse, T-Rob has the aura of mystery surrounding him, the potential tag still intact. Patterson is seen as a finished product, and a finished product that gets annihilated in the playoffs isn't as attractive as a guy who just hasn't gotten a chance.
Stretching White isn't going to happen. You should quit entertaining the idea in your scenarios. His expiring contract turns into an asset come next February and there's teams out there that will take a free player especially if they get paid to do it. White can be traded to a team like Charlotte with our remaining cash for 12/13. Charlotte profits from it. It's much more likely that Morey simply holds on to him and let's his asset value turn around as we get close to the trading deadline. So with that in mind, here's a handy little chart based on the projected $58.5 million salary cap. This chart simply shows how much salary has to be moved out to sign Dwight based on the number of players we move out. In other words it takes into account the $490,180 cap hold for all the empty roster spots created if we move out more than one player for Dwight. This is assuming that Garcia, Delfino, and Brooks have all been released of course. 2 players out - $5653889 (We have no 2 players that will work here w/out including one of Lin/Asik, so not going to happen.) 3 players out - $6144069 (only possibility here is TRob, RWhite traded away and Anderson waived or traded away, very little to zero trade value as Royce's trade value is essentially negative at the moment, most likely not going to happen.) 4 players out - $6634249 (this is the point where it gets interesting. Several different combinations of players could be traded all including TRob of course and to get real value including DMo or TJones or both.) 5 players out - $7124429 6 players out - $7614609 So, you should be able to see where this thing is headed of the cap is indeed $58.5 million or so. This is why I have been saying for some time that TRob is most likely going out with one or both of DMO/TJones. If we bring in Dwight and if we keep Asik then we don't have minutes for at least 2 of these guys. And the trade value of what we can get back is maximized by adding at least one of TJones/DMo to the trade going out. On another note, the reason Morey put TRob up on the block is because the NBA told the teams what the probable cap would be. Morey knows in all those scenarios he's got to move out TRob to sign Dwight if he's going to keep Asik. So, put him on the auction block, get the bids, then start working down to real trades adding value by adding guys like TJones and DMo. You have to be forward thinking in your scenarios. Morey does not trap himself in to where he cannot upgrade his team and he doesn't have flexibility. With Dwight on the roster, we essentially have no cap space. So our flexibility has to come from...the MLE, future draft picks that we acquire, and trade flexibility by having guys on the roster that other teams want to trade for. That's why Asik isn't going to be traded out of here unless it is a substantial deal AFTER we get Dwight on the roster or UNLESS some huge opportunity presents itself where we can trade Asik along with the other guys and get back Dwight and another premier top 10 player at the same time (not likely). So, the method to the madness is to put together the team with Dwight with the other pieces around him being valuable trade assets. That means no stretching Royce. That means trading out multiple players that would bring back the best combination of future draft picks possible. AND....that means investigating the possibility of a sign and trade for Dwight once Dwight commits to Houston. (Yes, it is still possible.) So, moving to the bigger picture....the possibility of a sign and trade. If Dwight commits to the Rockets both the Rockets and the Lakers are going to want to do a sign and trade if at all possible. All this talk about signing Dwight outright is just talk. Because we have the ability to do so. But it would help us if we could sign and trade for Dwight and it would help the Lakers to sign and trade Dwight if he is leaving...even if they get nothing more than a huge TPE. They will want that and Morey will want to sign and trade for Dwight if he can make it work because it will allow us to preserve more trading flexibility and perhaps an additional asset or two for the future. Things to watch for in the coming days: 1. Will Dwight Howard decide to commit to Houston before June 30th? All the rumors have been that he is going to take his sweet time and visit all the teams, etc. But I don't remember hearing him say that directly. And if he did, what does it mean anyways? He has a tendacy to change his mind quite frequently. However if he commits to Houston before June 30th that gives Morey and Kupchap some time to work on a sign and trade. I'm not saying he's going to do it. I'm saying he could and if he does the chances that we sign and trade for Dwight go up significantly. 2. Is Aaron Brooks still on the roster come July 1? If he is you can bet Morey is at the very least keeping the door open on a sign and trade. No way Brooks is on the roster July 1 unless Morey has an agreed to place to dump him for nothing. 3. Does Garcia agre to modify his guarantee for 2013/14 to a more reasonable figure....like $1.5 millon or so? If he does and Morey exercises the option to keep him on the roster, that's a HUGE INDICATOR that Morey is working on a sign and trade and has made significant progress towards completing it. 4. Does Morey reverse course and decide to exercise the opton to keep Garcia? Highly unlikely but if it happens this is an OVERWHELMING INDICATOR that Morey is working on a sign and trade and already has a team that will take Garcia's salary for nothing. 5. Will we trade Ohlbrecht or Anderson or Greg Smith (or possibly one of TJones/DMo) for either DeShawn Stevenson or CJ Miles within the next 27 days? If we do this is, it is another salary that can be used in a sign and trade 60 days from now. If any of these things happen by June 30th, you can take it as an indicator that the Dwight acquisition is funneling towards a sign and trade.
You are also relentlessly attacking the organization and Morey on decision making without having all of the info they have. This might have some merit if they haven't consistently proven they know what they are doing. At the very least you could wait to see what happens rather than digging yourself deeper and deeper into a hole by trying to confirm your bias.
While they are objective facts, objectively any intelligent GM would make that Patterson trade 1,000 times out of 1,000. It doesn't' matter what has happened since. It's not a Dwight signing KILLER and even to get to the point you have to really sweeten a deal to clear the cap space, you don't have to seriously hurt your chances at future improvement - even if they have to include a future first round pick in a TRob trade... who cares, it should be a 20+ pick anyway, and those are the worst. I remain shocked at how many high lotto picks Morey has been able to acquire despite the Rockets never sucking. Have any of those players turned out worthy of their slot selection? No... and generally not even close. I guess par the nature of the beast... Portland isn't exactly trading someone like Damian Lillard mid way through his rookie season. But I do attribute some of it to luck... at some point, you would have expected at least one of those guys to at a minimum be a solid 20-25 mpg role player. Well, I guess Harden panned out!!
@basketballholic Not quoting because that post is pretty long haha. Just in answering your questions: 1. Would that verbal commitment MEAN anything? Dwight is so fickle; something so easy that he can reneg on (as we can't even 'accept' it before July 1st anyways, so no K in place) doesn't hold much water, I feel. Dwight actually has said that he plans on checking out all available opportunities, so I don't think he will do this in the first place, but even if he does, why would it have much merit? Why would Houston take the risk? And by risk, I mean... 2. Brooks not being waived screws us in our chances of offering Dwight a max right? Our leverage goes away and then we'd HAVE to get him via SnT, or through moving Brooks' contract (a lot harder to do than just clearing the space in the first place). All this because Morey trusts Dwight's verbal commitment or Kupchak's? I wouldn't. That is like giving up your gun in a gun fight just because the other guy verbally said he'd surrender lol. 3. Can Garcia agree to modify? I thought he couldn't. I thought we'd have to decline the option then try to win him on the free market, probably for the Room MLE or Vet Min or something as we'd have to renounce everything else in trying to snatch Dwight. If he can just modify that easily, wouldn't that skirt the cba rules? Tons of teams would do that later to sign a FA or affect a trade... 4. No, probably not right? For the same reason Brooks won't be kept. It limits our options and destroys our leverage. Verbal commitments don't mean much. Trade scenarios always fall through and can do so even at the 11th hour. If Morey did this and it fell through, he'd be left holding the bag. No need to even do it in the first place, so why take the risk? 5. SnT 60 days from now? Who are you thinking? Dwight will be off the market by then at least.
1. legit point. Does make it somewhat tricky. Morey would have to structure the sign and trade in such a way that he could dump contracts anyways. See a sign and trade for Dwight would most likely involve way more than just LA and Houston. 3 or 4 teams at least. 2. Brooks is NOT on this roster on July 1 UNLESS Morey already has an agreed to deal in his pocket to dump his salary. You can count on that. If he is on the books July 1 there is one trade already done that will be executed at some point after the moratorium. It will happen. Just a matter of will it be by itself or will it be aggregated with other trades to add up to a sign and trade of Dwight. Morey is not going to leave himself locked into Delfino, Garcia, Brooks unless he's already got deals to move them out for no incoming salary so he can sign Dwight outright. 3. Garcia is a key player here. Here's the deal. He can be signed and traded for sure. Personally, after talking to Coon, I am convinced that Garcia can modify his contract before June 30th to a lower guarantee. It's just like a buyout. And there could be an incentive for him to do that. However......get ready. Even if he can't be modified (some claim he can't), his contract kept for the final season at $6.4 million could become tradable. Here's how. We have $2.1 million in cash left to spend in trades this season and then another $3.2 million in cash to spend on 13/14. That's $5.3 million total. Would Garcia be worth $1.1 million to a team that is severely under the cap and has to find salary to get up to $52 million (90% of the $58.5 million cap)? I think so. What about a team like Utah? Can't attract free agents. Two young bigs that they need to give the starting jobs to. And two older veteran bigs looking for one more huge payday. Do you think they re-sign Al and Paul both to 4-5 year deals? And then have trouble trading them? Or does it make more sense to take on an expiring contract like Garcia's to help fill up their cap that is an expiring that they could combine with Marvin Williams and one of their young bigs at the trade deadline for a potential superstar, that will wipe off the books at the end of the season anyway, that saves them around $5 million that they would otherwise have to distribute???? How do you give Utah all the dough? Simple. Buy a future 2nd rounder (or two) from them before July 1, and then trade them Garcia into their cap space with $3.2 million and a future second rounder after July 1st. Essentially swapping second rounders with both teams having side benefits of trading Garcia as well. Now...that is just one team. Charlotte is another possibility here. As is Milwaukee, etc. And the trade could grow to include Garcia, TRob, TJones, and Royce White, plus the cash.......plus a couple more non-guaranteed contracts....etc. Not to mention....if we get involved in sign and trade talks with the Lakers....you've got another $3.2 million of cash that we could entice the Lakers to spend to get their TPE. 4. If Brooks or Garcia or Delfino are still on the roster July 1 you can bet that our options have multiplied...not decreased. Same goes for if we acquire CJ Miles or DeShawn Stevenson for one of our non-guaranteed deals and some of you are scratching your heads wondering why we gave up Greg Smith or Ohlbrecht or Anderson for one of these two cats. A sign and trade acquisition of Dwight is a lot more realistic at this point than most of you think. Now, if June 30th passes and Garcia, Delfino, Brooks are all waived then the possibility practically disappears although still possible in theory.
1. Okay. 2. Verbal agreements of SnTs don't hold much stock, imo, so I don't see why Morey would take this risk? Wouldn't he have to have an agreement in principle ONLY to move Brooks? Why trust that the other team won't reneg? 3. I know Garcia can be SnT'd like any other free agent. I was talking about his K being modified AFTER picking up his option, which you mentioned. I don't know if that is possible. And while his K kept for the final season could be tradeable, I don't see why Morey would put himself in that position. We don't need Garcia's K to complete a SnT, so he'd have to be an expiring sweetener, but that isn't worth so much as to risk signing Dwight outright. Imagine we pick up his option...and the SnT falls through because, again, verbal commitments mean crap when there is a moratorium. What now? We have to move Garcia just to sign Dwight, but our leverage is gone. People know we put a gun to our own head...why help us remove it? Even if they are willing to help, some team has to have the room and inclination to do so EARLY in the FA process. I don't think teams like Charlotte and Utah are in a rush to waste their cap space in the first week or two of free agency, which screws us in the chase for Dwight. He isn't going to just wait around as we try to shop a K we forced ourselves to take for a deal that no one was bound to do. Even the cash movements you mentioned sound wayyy too complicated to pull off easily. Cash now, then July 1, more cash and picks and Garcia? Two separate non-simultaneous transactions? How often does that happen? I think you're putting way too much stock into verbal agreements that no one would be bound to uphold...and complicated trade hypos are much easier said than done. Shoot, we're not even getting initial takers for getting rid of TRob for any pick! 4. No, our options would have decreased as it pertains to Dwight because NOW we HAVE to move the contracts OR do a SnT. We could no longer sign him outright. Signing him outright always gives us the most leverage because we need no one else, and we do not require additional steps. That would be Morey's goal.
2. Simply doesn't happen. Teams aren't gonna take the risk of teams avoiding trading with them in the future. It is not an issue. 3. I believe it is possible to modify his guarantee. See Coon #60. It's the same thing as a buyout, which is what it would most likely turn into. His incentive for agreeing to a salary modification would be quite simple...$$$$. If he doesn't agree to modify he's on the free agent market, way down in the pecking order. Even if he agreed to a $4 million buyout, that's probably more than he's gonna make on the open market. Once again, Morey won't put himself in any position to be shang hied by one of these contracts. If Garcia is modified or if we exercise the team option to keep his salary, it's because Morey already has a trade for him lined up. And no, we don't necessarily need him for a sign and trade. BUT...having his contract for a sign and trade would be a big asset if it came down to a sign and trade using the 150% rule. Understand this....the very, very, very best position Morey can be in going into July 1st is to be in a position to either trade and waive his way into $20.5 million of cap space OR to execute a sign and trade for Dwight using the 150% rule. So, if Morey can get there by negotiating trades in advance and by possibly modifying Garcia's contract and by possibly making a small move or two before July 1 that betters our position to do both of these things....he'll do it. It's the options that gives Morey the ability to get more out of deals. It starts with having the ability to sign Dwight outright. It ends with having the ability to execute a sign and trade using the 150% rule. Rest of 3 and 4. You do not understand how deals are made ahead of time and the commitment to the deals. Just remember this...if Delfino or Brooks or Garcia are still on this roster come July 1 there's a pre-arranged deal already made...that is contingent on both sides doing what they said they would do.....it happens all the time.
2. 3. and 4. Does it happen all the time? Isn't that skirting around nba rules? I thought there was a moratorium on talking to FAs. Is it different just because those players have a salary/option that have yet to be guaranteed/picked up? I imagine a straight up trade could happen, but one where things are agreed to but cannot actually be executed until after the date passes and the same players get their options exercised? I honestly don't know. Also, the SnT option mostly deals with Dwight here, right? Like, to keep Garcia and Brooks, etc., the point would be to use them to SnT for DWIGHT right? How would such a deal possibly be made before July 1st with LAL? That would require LAL to shoot themselves in the foot. They would not have even had a chance to make their pitch to Dwight, and Dwight would have had to already have committed to go anywhere else before listening to what the other teams are offering (which he said he wants to listen to). I know you're talking about, IF the players stayed, then such a deal must be in place, but for all practical purposes, how could such a deal even possibly fall into place before July 1st?
More doesn't make the sign and trade deal with LA before July 1, probably not even before July 10th, maybe not even until August 1st or later. But he can negotiate the deals to be executed after July 1 to clear cap space...and he can negotiate deals right now to rid guaranteed salary. Here's how he negotiates delayed deals. If a team will agree to do the deal if you make it today, in other words if they are ready to accept a deal today, then you just make the commitment to do it after July 1 and give them a little extra zing to wait to do the deal, extra cash, extra second rounder, whatever. That's how deals are done all the time. In times past before the sign and trade rules changed, teams waited the requisite 60 days for players to be eligible to trade to execute sign and trades. They were deals that wre done but simply couldn't be executed until 60 days had passed to include a player recently traded for.
Okay, but this still doesn't explain why LAL would agree to a SnT with us for Dwight prior to July 1st, i.e., why would they make that commitment to us at this point in time? If they don't, why keep Brooks or Garcia if LAL shows no signs of being willing to do a SnT (which they shouldn't give signs of prior to July 1st as they want Dwight for themselves and still have yet to present). ??
They won't. Howard commits to come here July 1st or July 10th or whatever. THEN LAL decides they want to do a S&T!!! IF............we can be in a position to execute a sign and trade with the lakers using the 150% rule then it could possibly save us young talent and draft picks for future trade considerations. Here's my point in all this. You can't bypass the possibility of a sign and trade until it is impossible. Why? Because it's still very much possible!!! Why ignore that possibility when it represents probably one of the very best outcomes for us??
But if Howard is committing to come here July 1st or 10th or whatever, we would have already declined the options or waived Brooks and Delfino and Garcia, right? A good number of them have to be picked up PRIOR to July 1st. If Howard has not committed before July 1st (he won't), LAL won't want to do a SnT yet (they won't), so why would we keep those players around? You yourself said they'd remain IF a SnT deal was ALREADY in place (at least in principle), but under the above logic, it wouldn't be, right? And if Howard agreed to come, why would we care about what LAL wanted? We can almost sign Dwight outright; we would only need to send them TRob and maybe GSmith (doubt they take White, we probably have to stretch and waive). Why would they say no to that when Howard is walking anyways? We don't need the extra players for some odd 150% rule because we'd still have the cap room to absorb Dwight (not go over the cap) if we only send like TRob and White/GSmith, and LAL doesn't care about cap rules as it is simply DECREASING its salary. Not sure why the 150% issue matters here?
The Rockets can benefit from a S&T with the Lakers. The hang up is the Lakers need to send Nash to a third team who can fully absorb his contract.
Stretch provision. And for Rob, anyway you get a 2nd round at the least. It's ok. Considering it's the worst case scenario.
Not that it should come at any surprise... <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Thomas Robinson not happy about trade rumors about him related to Rockets pursuit of Dwight Howard. Hear from him on <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23SportsTalkLive">#SportsTalkLive</a> at 5</p>— CSN Houston (@CSNHouston) <a href="https://twitter.com/CSNHouston/status/341664064394641408">June 3, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
