Marc Spears from Yahoo Sports: "Nobody" is interested in trading for Thomas Robinson

It's Marc Spears opinion, but Marc Spears talks to NBA people-- front office guys, coaches, players, agents, etc.-- and his opinion is based on more information than the average internet user has.

Of course, even an informed opinion could turn out to be wrong. Spears may have talked to members of 25 teams, but one of the other 5 could have interest in Robinson. The guys he spoke with also have their own motivations and may not be honest. In this case, however, the reasoning behind his opinion is worth noting.

Spears said that Robinson's has not shown that he's worth either his draft slot or his salary. Lets consider Robinson's draft slot, 5th overall, and salary, $3.5M next season. People think of players on rookie contract as "cheap labor" as most are paid relatively little. This is because the kind of money that you pay a guy like Parsons or the scale salary of a mid-to-low 1st rounders is typically fairly useless if you try to spend it on a veteran free agent (since most non-rookie contract guys making $1-2M a year are not really all that useful) and often do not make that much of a difference on a team's cap figures and cap rom.

However, a high draft pick's salary is not an insubstantial amount of money. Robinson has a 4 year, $15.3M contract if you pick up both of his option years. If you want to see how good Robinson will be in his 3rd year and beyond, you have to commit to paying him $3.7M for his 3rd season before the start of his 2nd season (i.e. during preseason this year). If you want to retain the "matching rights" to keep him as a restricted FA, you'll need to commit to paying him $4.7M for his 4th season before the start of his 3rd season. This kind of money actually has a high probability of landing you a decent free agent and, perhaps more important, it actually makes an impact on your cap room (like with the Rockets, $3.5M more is likely what they need to chase Dwight Howard). So, a rookie making Robinson's money is reasonably held to a higher standard than the actual cheap rookies even for salary reasons alone. Unless such a rookie shows some usefulness and signs of at least some decent chance of becoming an elite player, it is reasonable for teams to be reluctant to take their contract on, let alone giving up a decent asset for him.

Remember Jonny Flynn and Hasheem Thabeet? It is not unusual for teams to want to get rid of high draft picks with high salaries when they don't fulfill high expectations.

 

Such a trade is not going to happen.

First, the Bulls are already committed above the luxury tax level. They most likely are not willing to pay both Robinsons' $3.5M salary AND a $3.5M luxury tax in order to take a flyer on a prospect who hasn't performed yet. The Bulls are well aware of the perils of the athletic but non-performing high draft pick after Eddy Curry and Tyrus Thomas. The 20th pick, in comparison, is likely to cost them just $1.1 to $1.3M.

Second, the Rockets won't want a 2013 1st round pick in return anyway. Specifically, even a low draft pick with a $1.1M cap hit is still likely to make a difference in having sufficient cap room to offer Dwight Howard the max, which is the big motivation for dumping Robinson right now anyway.

 

Sam Hinkie is the last guy who will trade for Robinson. The guy had a front row view of Robinson's career.