I don't trust Law. I much prefer the guys from BA & BP. Note: We interviewed Law and hired guys from BP.
This is true. I wonder what Luhnow's feelings are on the risk reward of a pitcher versus a hitter at 1-1. Personally I'm scared to death of the injury risk for pitchers and unless that pitcher is a sure thing Strasberg I'd go hitter and load up on high ceiling arms in later rounds.
I don't think you can worry too much about injury unless there is a history, or clear flaw in the mechanics. Pitchers in general have an extremely high failure rate outside of health, which I'm afraid of. At this point last year, I don't think anybody had Correa going #1, so who knows what will happen. Kohl Stewart is going to end up as the best pitcher from this draft. And we aren't going to draft him.
Why? Talent always drops, especially HSers who want to get first round monies or they will go to college.
I would not be surprised if the Astros did. Luhnow took HS pitcher McCullers at #40, saying he had top 15 talent. Last year's draft, Luhnow took two HSers as his top two picks. I know that one can not read too much into that, but at least one can say that Luhnow will use top picks on "long road" HS talent.
Not a top ten guy. McCullers was identified early as a signability risk and was worth taking a Correa. He was briefly discussed as a 1-1 candidate. Kohl Stewart would be my guy but it doesn't look like he'll slide out of the top 10. Give me a name so I know who to watch for in draft day.
Can't see him doing it at #1 or him being available at #40. To be the GM that took a risk on another HS P at #1. In reality, the history of pitchers at #1 isn't very good with starting pitchers. David Price & Stephen Strasburg (to date) have been exceptions.
Verlander was 1.2, but easily could have been 1.1. When you look around the league, truly elite arms are hard to come by. They almost always come from the first round, which is why I don't think we can afford to take a flyer on anyone but Gray or Appel. Saving money for later picks is nice if you think you can get talent there, but I don't want to miss out on a top arm for a couple guys in the later part of the BA 100.
I'd go with Moran only if Stewart assured you that he will let it be known that he will only sign as a top 4 guy. Moran/Appel/Bryant/Gray are then the top 4 picks and the Astros then use the almost 4 million in savings at 2-1 for him. If Luhnow pulls that off then he is the new Moreyssque wizard.
Lots of guys could have been. Either due to signability, or increased risk, the better pitchers have often gone #2.
I know it's a pipe dream, but it would be awesome to have Bryant/Moran at 1.1 and have Kohl's people tell teams he'll only sign for top 3 money or he's going to compete for a national championship at A&M, then get him at 2.1.
I know you wanted the whole thing, not just Houston. Apologies for not posting it earlier. Spoiler _________________________ Some Astros-related questions from his chat:
Astros meet with Gray Jonathan Mayo/MLB.com mock draft 1. Astros: Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma The Astros are down to five candidates: two college pitchers (Gray and Mark Appel), two college hitters (Kris Bryant and Colin Moran) and one high schooler (Clint Frazier or Austin Meadows). There are whispers regarding Bryant and Moran, but Gray is still the pick.
If the Astros take Moran here is a list of players the Astros could target with signability concerns . http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/5/20/4344286/2013-mlb-draft-players-with-signability-questions
IIRC the Astros in 2012 took three HSers with signability concerns (Lance McCullers, Rio Ruiz, Hunter Virant) and signed two of them. In effect the Asros turned their the 1.1, 2.1 and 4.1 picks into three first round picks. I could see the Astros do a slight variation on the theme this year and sign 3 HSers to low second slot money ($1 million). The result would be turning the 2.1, 4.1, 6.1, and 8.1 (or some such) into four second round picks.
The Biggio one seems off, and not just because they have Virginia instead of Notre Dame listed (Biggio switched his commitment, which is probably how that happened). The paragraph describes a tough to sign player, but puts it as only 30% going to college.
BA: Mock Draft, v3.0 Still Gray at the top. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Go get Gray & Manaea for $9.2 mil. @<a href="https://twitter.com/biggio4hof">biggio4hof</a>: Better deal for <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23astros">#astros</a>... 1.1 Moran 2.1 Manaea or 1.1 Gray 2.1 slot player ? <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23mlbdraft">#mlbdraft</a></p>— Jim Callis (@jimcallisBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/jimcallisBA/status/340610314708062209">May 31, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>MLB sources: Georgia high school outfielders Clint Frazier & Austin Meadows were in the Astros workout in Atlanta & "were very impressive."</p>— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/status/340931362737516544">June 1, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Cavan Biggio, Craig's son, & Josh Pettitte, Andy's son, among 28 players who worked out for the Astros Saturday at Minute Maid park</p>— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/status/340940164069199872">June 1, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
