I'm not sold on Colin Moran. Have you seen the UNC lineup? Half the lineup is hitting .350 and 3 other guys have 6+ home runs. What makes him any better than the rest of those guys? I'll admit, Dustin Ackley leaves a bad taste in my mouth and he was supposedly the most polished hitter in his draft class as well.
UNC is one of the top college baseball programs year in and year out. I don't know if Moran is the best prospect but he's definitely legit and a top 5 prospect in this draft. If they want to save bonus pool money and pick a first round talent in the second round like last year, than Moran may be the guy.
Dustin Ackley 2009 .417 22hrs 50/34 bb/k Understandable that the bats were different in 09, but I just don't see Moran's swing being that of a power hitter. He has a good eye and a smooth stroke, but I don't see him as a power hitter worthy of 1-1. If someone wants to archive this thread, I will bet anyone $20 Moran never hits more than 25 home runs in a season. And does it not strike anyone else as odd that Kris Bryant strikes out in 20% of his at bats against lesser competition? Strike out rate in college is pretty transferrable to the pro ranks (see George Springer) and the best team he's played so far this year is Oregon State (yes they won the CWS a few years back but they've never had a legit pro prospect). The power is beyond real, but I think he's going to struggle against better competition. I see a .250-.270 hitter at best with 30 home runs and 150+ strikeouts. Which brings me to the two pitchers, Appel and Gray. With Appel, what you see is what you get. He's very polished and there doesn't seem to be much room for improvement as far as his stuff goes. His command is pretty good, it's going to be his overall approach that will bring him to the next level. He doesn't rack up huge strikeout numbers and his stuff is pretty hittable. Gray still has some ways to go. The fastball is great, but his breaking pitch and changeup need alot of work. Command is ok. Here's the thing though. Gray is putting up as good, if not better numbers than Appel in a pretty darn competitive conference with less command and a lesser array of pitches. The upside is there to be a dominant pitcher, but do you take that risk? I don't know who to pick, I'm just saying what I see in these players. I'm a big fan of Clint Frazier though.
You know most 1st round picks never hit 25HR in a season. That is the kind of power you expect from Moran if he pans out. Of course there are plenty of players that had great careers without hitting 25HR in a season. A .250 - .270 hitter with 30HR is a great player. He would make a few all-star teams. That said, I'm actually starting to prefer Moran over Bryant when money is factored in. Gray and Appel are not perfect. Both have great stuff, and maybe the right coaching is all they will need, but who knows. Frazier has great bat speed, arm, and speed, but I don't like him. I don't think he'll harness his tools to the full extent. There is a reason there isn't a definitive #1 guy out there.
Jim Callis: Spoiler <iframe width="658" height="371" scrolling="no" src="http://www.sports790.com/player/embed.html?autoStart=false&useFullScreen=true&mid=23270313&osu=null&startButtonColor=0xffffff" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" ></iframe> Players you think could be here at the end of this year? Not a ton. Most obvious is Jonathan Singleton. George Springer is having a nice year in Double-A. He is still striking out a lot. I wouldn't rush him. Other is Jarrod Cosart. I think they're still trying to figure out if he's a reliever or starter. If a starter, his development will take a little longer. Hesitant to make an analysis of last year's draft? Don't want to draw too much of a conclusion based on 2 months of play. Like Dennis Green said, these guys are who we thought they were. Correa, for an 18 year old in the Midwest league, is having a tremendous year. McCullers walking some guys but other than that, untouchable. Explosive like we thought. Rio Ruiz, he may be struggling but again, teenager in the Midwest league. I go back and forth. They essentially traded down from 1 to 2, in terms of bonuses they handed out but traded up from 41 and 120 and traded and got 2 top 25 selections if you're basing guys on what they signed for. I love Correa and what they did was sound strategy. I still in my gut, if you asked me if I would have rather had given Buxton 6 million and maybe had to sacrifice Ruiz or McCullers, I would go with Buxton. I'm not saying the Astros made a bad decision but we thought Buxton was the best player and has been spectacular in the minors this year. What they did was smart. In hindsight, I would have taken Buxton but that's with the benefit of hindsight. .... It's not like they took a lesser player at one to save money. I would take Buxton over Correa. Give Buxton 6, sign McCullers and sacrifice Ruiz but it's a fascinating question. Gray will be the Astros pick - true or false? True, based on the best of my knowledge at this time. I wouldn't say it's a lock. There has been a lot of smoke. You're picking one, with these new draft rules and limited to what you can spend, it behooves you to sign guys more than ever as less as you can, it makes sense for the Astros to say hey, we're looking at 4-5 players and here's Crane saying we're scouting Colin Moran. If you're looking at 4-5 players instead of 2, you can maybe exert more leverage on those players. In the end, I think the decision will come down to Gray and Appel and maybe Kris Bryant a little bit. I think they'll go with a pitcher. As of today, my guess would be Gray. I don't think the Astros know yet. On board with saying you have him rated slightly higher than Appel? They're similar but slight differences. It's almost a coin flip. Appel has a longer track record. Last year, one knock was scouts wished he dominated more. He has taken it up another notch this year. He has been good for 3 years. A little more polished than Gray. His 3rd pitch is better. His changeup is better. On the other side, Gray is new to being this elite draft prospect. He's always had a strong arm. Has always gotten in better shape, better command, incrementally year by year. His stuff is more electric than Appel. Fastball is a little better when on. When he is commanding his slider, better breaking stuff than Appel. I would take Gray over Appel. When trying to decide these arguments, I'll use upside as the tie-breaker and I think that's Gray. I do think, from the reverse prospective, like who will get there quicker, I think Appel will get there quicker. Not that I think that matters for the Astros. Appel is a little safer than Gray because of track record and you've seen him pitch 3 years. Gray has kicked into another gear this year. Kohl Stewart skipping A&M, thoughts on Pettitte and Biggio and immediate pros or college and JUCO route? Stewart is the best HS pitcher in this draft. He won't get taken over the 2 pitchers we just discussed but I had a scouting director tell me, his stuff is as good as those 2 guys and more athletic. I think he is sincere about playing football but it might be 2 years behind Manziel. Stewart will go high enough in the draft where he will get offered millions of dollars and I don't think he'll turn it down. I think he'll go 4 to the Twins, they really want a pitcher, and the Red Sox would love to have him at 7. I think he'll be off the board in the first seven picks. He probably shows you at his best, he can show you 4 plus pitches. He might be better than Gray or Appel in the long run. Biggio a 2nd round pick based on talent. He can hit. The rest of his game...his father was a do everything athlete. The rest of his game is fringe to average but they play up because of his instincts. That's why he's a 2nd rounder instead of 1st. He projects as a 2nd baseman. I don't think he's real signable. There is some talk the Astros could take him with the first pick in the 2nd round. I'm not even sure he's signable for....I think his parents want him to go to school. His brother is at Notre Dame, he's committed to Notre Dame, his dad went to college and that didn't hold him back. My gut feel is he'll end up at Notre Dame. Might be wrong but my gut feel. Pettitte, very polished. He'll do very well at Baylor. Talking to scouts, they love the kid, love the polish but don't think he's physically ready for pro ball and almost certainly will end up at Baylor.
Kris Bryant's strike out rate per plate appearance is at 14.1% with a 3:2 k:bb ratio. That's more than okay. As for Ackley, prospects fail for all sorts of reasons. Mark Prior was the best college pitching prospect of all-time. Any pitching prospect of the past 30 years, save for maybe Strasburg, compares unfavorably to him. But just because Prior failed as a major leaguer, doesn't mean that Appel will fail, or that Gray will. What Ackley's and Prior's struggles tell us is that there is risk in all prospects. I don't know why Ackley is struggling (6.6 bWAR in less than two years not withstanding), but it could be for any number of reasons (women, injury, booze) that may not effect Moran. All that said, I'd be disappointed if the Astros selected Moran. History tells us that production falls off pretty steeply from the first pick on. In the average draft, "trading down" from 1 to 5 or 6 isn't worth it, even if you'd be able to pick up additional mid to late first round picks. Last year was an exception because I think most analysts viewed Correa as kind of a 1b type prospect behind Buxton (He was rated 2nd overall by BA and Law ahead of Appel). Moran doesn't have above power, some scouts don't love his swing, and if he fails at 3rd he may be confined to 1b/dh. Even with the advanced approach, that doesn't sounds like an elite prospect. At least with Bryant, if he can't stay at 3rd, scouts project him to be at least average in RF. At this point I'm not sure who I want out of the top 3 candidates (Appel, Gray, Bryant). They all fit positions of need within the organization and I'd be excited for any of them.
Hoping for Appel or Gray. Would not be too disappointed in Bryant. Moran seems very risky as his value seems to lie in power emerging.
Bryant's K rate is 40/215 = 18.6% It was 17.8% last year and 27.9% his freshman year. Yes he's made great strides in making contact, but again, the competition he's facing is less than impressive. In summer 2010 he had a K rate of 25.33% in the Cal Collegiate League (.247 avg). In summer 2011 he had a K rate of 39% in the much more impressive Cape Cod League (.223 avg). His K:BB rate was 3.6:1 In summer 2012 he had a K rate of 28.9% playing for the USA national team (.271 avg) The kid has monster power, but you'll have to deal with his strikeouts and he doesn't have a history of batting for a high average outside of USD. Best case scenario is Adam Dunn. Worst case...Chris Carter.
After checking fangraphs, the correct ratio would be to use K per plate appearance as the stat was changed to reflect plate appearances in 2011. However, I've always used K per AB because you can just take a quick look at the stat sheet and use a 1/4 strikeout per AB as an average.
I don't get the Adam Dunn "best case" scenario. He is not as good a power hitter as Dunn but not as athletically of positionly limited. He reminds me of Mike Cameron with less speed but more power.
I was going as a hitter only, not as an overall player. Dunn was a masher who struck out alot, walked alot, and hit .240-.270 in his prime. I think Bryant will be a similar player if the scouts truly believe he has 80 power.
Interesting two very different views. I'd go Bryant get a smaller discount than Moran as I don't think a top 10 talent like McCullers last year will fall this year. Glad to hear they're not leaning towards a pitcher.
I suppose much of it comes down to if a bigger discount player at 1-1 turns into getting a player(s) that we wouldnt otherwise be able to get with a smaller discount. And then weigh that difference between who we gave gave up at the 1-1 vs who we could have had.
