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Drafting: Need vs Best Available

Discussion in 'NBA Draft' started by coachbadlee, May 28, 2013.

  1. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    They also picked Morris in the 1st which was the problem i spoke of. They should have gone for need which would have been Vucevic, who was breaking records in Orlando. 2nd round should be for BPA.
     
  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Parsons was the BPA at his spot. He was not a Need selection as the Rockets already had a starter and a first round pick (MM) that was a SF. How is he not an example of why a team should go BPA?

    MM did say he was going to be a SF. MM was playing SF last time I saw in Phoenix. This season with Rockets, the Rockets played a lot of small ball. Parsons, Delfino, and MM were all SFs that played the PF for the Rockets. MM just wasn't a good enough SF to actually play ahead of Parsons and Delfino at SF.
     
  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The Rockets needed a SF at the time of their pick. MM would have been the pick for Need or for BPA.
     
  4. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    Because MANY MANY MANY MANY teams/selections (including the Rockets) going for BPA just passed on a player that has proven to be better?

    Going for need at least fills a hole in a game of chance.

    After reading this post, your initial post doesn't make much sense to me at all. :confused:
     
  5. plutoblue11

    plutoblue11 Member

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    It really depends...

    1. In the NFL (the average or mediocre team) or with an NBA team that is seriously loaded at most postions, best available talent no question. You do it more so with an older or aging team.

    2. With NBA teams that are young and developing, you draft for need, more so. Why bring in another young slashing and scoring wing when you have already have three players like that on your rosters (who all are still young players, themselves). Again, it's different, if players are a little older and near retirement.

    Drafting for Need:
    + A quick fix fill-in for a spot/position that might be a little more costly in free agency.
    + Provides exactly what your team needs. Nothing more or less.
    + Possible easier transition into team's designate roles.

    - Best available talent? If you are passing on someone with very high potential and likely all-star skills, then you may risk losing your job if it happens often. GMs have fatally made this mistake, over the years.
    - Mediocre draft pick/player, is the player even capable enough to break into the 12 man rotation.
    - Development curve, does such a player take long to develop into an adequate NBA player vs. the best available players.

    Drafting for Best Available talent:
    + More stock for future trades and acquisition.
    + Greater depth on the bench
    + More reliable pieces for overall team

    - Could cause controversy among playing time, rotation, and starter positions. Imagine having two all-star caliber or HOF worthy players who play the same exact position. Good problem to have, but not always.

    - Team does not fill immediate needs or weaknesses, same problems you had last season.

    - New rookie may not fit team's designated roles, very well, yet is very skilled and competitive player.
     
  6. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    We have been needing a center for the past 4 years or so. More so than a SF.
     
  7. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    Very good post.
     
  8. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    BPA, always. Needs can be filled through various other means.
     
  9. RV6

    RV6 Member

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    Bad logic.

    You're basically calling their picks misses because other good players have gone later. They have actually drafted pretty well for the spots they had.
     
  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    BPA versus Need.

    Highest Drafted Center at Rockets Pick versus Rockets Pick Last 4 Years.
    Zeller...Lamb (Got traded for Harden)
    Zeller....White
    Melo.....Jones
    Aldemir....Aldemir
    Vucevic....Morris
    Tyler.......Motiejunas
    Tyer......Parsons
    Orton....Patterson
    Norel.....Taylor
    Norel.....Llull
    Norel.....Budinger

    White has the talent to be a lot better than Zeller, but so far off court issue has given Zeller the big adavantage. Vucevic could of been drafted over Morris in hindsight.

    BPA had a part in the Rockets acquiring Harden, Parsons, Jones, Robinson, and the 34th pick. Granted, the Rockets could have had Vucevic at center and Zeller backing him up if they had taken the drafting for need approach.

    If you draft for need at center, you are either get incredibly lucky or are drafting for need at center again.
     
  11. Greg M

    Greg M Member

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    Snell is an option to backup at SF. He played the 3 in college. He's 6'7" with long arms. I question his strength at the beginning of his NBA career to guard some of the bigger 3's though. He also has all of the abilities to excel as a tall 2 guard. His ball handling skills are underrated.

    As a Rockets fan, I hope he drops into the 2nd round. As a Lobos fan, I hope Snell gets a guaranteed contract and is taken in round 1. I'm very curious.
     
  12. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    They have drafted alright, but they could have done better as you mentioned.
     
  13. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    Fixed^
     
  14. RickyNewport

    RickyNewport Member

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    Parsons, Lin, Asik, and Beverly are all soon to be free agents in 2 years (could be next year for Parsons). And one or two of these guys could be more valuable to the Rockets in a trade than keeping them on the team and resigning them. And also an upgrade on the bench at any position would be welcomed.

    In my opinion it looks like the best player available would be a player of need...
     
  15. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    The truth is if Clutchfans were in charge of drafting for the Rockets in 2011, we wouldn't have had Morris, Motiejunas and Parsons. We would have Leonard/Vucevic, Faried and Tyler.
     
  16. mike_lu

    mike_lu Member

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    No GM always picks the actual BPA available, or even the BPA at the position of need, all the time.

    Only armchair fans posting on websites do, in hindsight. It's called survivorship bias. You remember the one you called right, and forget the five other bomb-outs that you called wrong. Jeremy Tyler, Hassan Whiteside, and countless others on this board.

    While I don't like to see 6 PFs on the roster, which is Morey taking BPA to the extreme, for the most part you want to go with BPA and trade what you get. Sam Bowie vs Michael Jordan is a prime example even at the top of the draft. In fact, more picks have been wasted trying to draft a 6'10 and above player in the lottery than for any other position. Hassan Whiteside, Cole Aldrich, Stromile Swift just some names. Unless you get a sure can't miss, they can almost inevitably be had for non-guaranteed contracts later.

    There are 270 or so players in the NBA in any given year that gets rotation time (30 teams * 9 rotation players). 60 players are drafted each year. Even if GMs bat .500, it means there are 30 new rotation-level players each year in the NBA (that survies on average 9 years in the NBA). This is obviously not the case. The actual batting percentage may be as low or lower than .300 (or else why would we be seeing Mike James still in the league?).

    So if the batting average is probably <.250 (especially when outside of the lottery, just for surviving in the league):
    1) How can we be critical of Morey?
    2) Why would we want to add another layer of criteria of fit on top of BPA, to restrict the GM?


    BPA every draft, all the way from 1 to 60, and only select for positional need if players are in the same tier.

    And if you get the BPA that happens to be a position of need ... just say "it's better to be lucky than good"
     
    #36 mike_lu, May 29, 2013
    Last edited: May 29, 2013
  17. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    You are correct. Too bad the 2011 draft had to occur in 2011, rather than in 2013.
     
    #37 No Worries, May 29, 2013
    Last edited: May 29, 2013
  18. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Not seen any Milwaukee games this year, but he was viewed by most as a PF out of college. Looking at who he was on the floor with, it looks like he was mostly the 4. At best he was viewed as a PF/C. Rockets had Patterson and Smith as PFs that can masquerade as a center so the PF/C position was not a need (backup SG was as much a need as backup PF/C)

    Even if you view Henson as center, BPA lead to Rockets getting Harden. Harden is better than Henson, Martin, Toronto pick, Dallas pick, White, Jones, 2nd round pick, and the kitchen sink. Oh wait, I got to take Jones out because he was acquired by Budinger who was acquired by a pick that should have been used on need for Norel.
     
  19. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    The Project Big

    With the possibility of getting Howard looking better and better, i think this would be the perfect time to draft a project big man. Also Asik maybe moved as well so either way they need to address the situation in this draft. With the possibility of a young 7 footer going up against one of the best centers in the league everyday in practice, it could definitely help speed up the process. Howard could really help a young big, who will probably be underdeveloped, get use to the type of players they will go up against.
     
  20. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    Have you guys watched this in the other thread?



    <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/TQduIznX1uU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>



    Man, this kid gets up and down the court very well for someone who is 7'2:eek:!!
    Looks funny doing it, though.:grin:
     

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