[CBS Sports] Howard no lock for Lakers; interested in Rockets

Please don't tell me you're actually basing this off a rumor by a guy who we have never even heard about before now.

And if its sarcasm, good job haha.

 

Does Vegas have odds on where D12 ends up? That'd be interesting to see...

 

I like your analysis and agree with all of it...but then these percentages dont make much sense if the analysis is spot on. I would give Houston a much bigger edge given that it has the advantage of more money, a better team, and less pressure.

My odds go more in line with:
Houston 60%
LA 38%
Other 2%

I actually dont see any other team in the mix, but just throwing out 2% to appease the basketball Gods.

If I were betting the big bucks, my money is on Houston. The only way the percentages start changing in LAs favor are if they decide to go in another direction in regards to coaching. As long as MDA is there, the odds will continue to favor Houston.

 

Hi rezdawg,

I only stick with my analysis of...

Houston 45%
Lakers 40%
Other 15%

because that's what I posted 2 weeks ago before all this extra Dwight news broke. At that time I got attacked by the naysayers so I guess by posting my percentages over and over again I'm just sticking it to the doubters that attacked me.

Actually, I'm inclined to think your probabilities are more representative of the real situation.

 

McHale is a huge factor.

I think if Houston can convince Dwight on "the system" and plans to challenge for a championship, its a lock.

This should be the emphasis of the pitch as it hits at Laker's weakness.

 

Part of me believes Dwight will sign a 5-year 118 million dollar contract with the Lakers, then demand a trade to another team in December. That way he can get all of his guaranteed money yet go to a team of his choosing. The Lakers probably would agree just so that they get value from his departure, but hold onto him until the trade deadline. That could extend the Dwightmare until February, 8 MONTHS from now!

 

Having seen last year's Orlando Dwightmare play out, he's bound to change his mind over and over again. And he tried the exact same thing there and it worked out. He waived his ETO and then got them to trade him with that contract and bird rights to a big city he approved of. So he was able to have his cake and eat it, too.

 

I thought under the CBA, you can't get that extra year in an immediate sign and trade. There is no advantage for Howard to sign with the Lakers.

All this talk of why don't the Lakers do a sign and trade with Golden State or another team because they will get pieces back is stupid.

Don't people realise Dwight is an UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT. He can go wherever he likes. Are the Lakers going to beg him "Dwight, please please please sign with us so we can trade you to Golden State and get something back"

Dwight will answer, "F.U. I'm walking. C ya!"

Lakers fall in a heaping mess of do do.

 

You're right. Dwight has complete power.

There is nothing the Lakers can do if he wants to walk away leaving them with nothing if Houston or another team want to sign him outright.

I think Dwight has been looking forward to his unrestricted free agency for two years now.

 

I did not propose an immediate sign and trade. Please re-read.

I based this on the CBA FAQ:

This is the only way that I see Dwight being able to collect the full $118 million guaranteed contract, while being able to still go to another team of his choosing. And I feel he and his agent are egotistical enough to attempt it.

 

That scenario is fraught with risk for Dwight and Houston.

1) Usually a sign and trade specifies in the contract that it is void unless the trade is executed on this date... etc.

2) Is the contract meant to specify a date 3 months into the season for a sign and trade? What if Dwight decides to sit out those three months? What if he or any of the players involved in the sign and trade get injured or their circumstances change?

3) I really think Dwight is not after the 5 year max contract anyway. I think he wants to maximize his income by signing a 4 year with an opt out after 3. After 3 years (age 30) he will sign a new 5 year max which will take him to age 35.
3 year + 5 year max

 

I've been thinking. What is a way that the Rockets can get Dwight (should the cap room not be fully available) and not give up their current asset stash (T-Rob, TJones, D-Mo, Beverley, Anderson).

Could this option work?

Say Dwight says "I'm going to Houston". Could Morey approach LA and tell them "We can sign Dwight outright OR we could do a sign and trade and you get a 2nd round pick + a nice trade exception". This way the Rockets don't need to drop any assets to a team under the cap for a pick. Sure it costs the Rockets a pick, but it could be worth it to keep T-Rob or TJones and see if they develop. Also, keeping T-Rob could help down the line either getting Josh Smith (T-Rob+Asik) or packaging in another trade.

 

If it is a sign and trade I would not rule out GS for one second here if dwight wants to play there.

 

No, it doesn't work.

Dude please read cbafaq.com

 

DH to sign 5 years with the Lakers and demand trade later with other teams are not that likely for two reasons:

1. that will only further harm his image and chance for endorsements.
2. that will deplete his next team and only harm his chance for a championship he's staying.

 

Howard stays in LA, he cannot take another city and the media blasting him for leaving after one year. What was the point then of the dwightmare if he bolts after 1 year, especially if it's Houston which is where he would've headed at the trading deadline two years ago.

 

Ehh?

You are saying Howard will not leave LA because he cannot take the media blasting him?

Sorry to say. But I think that's one of the weakest arguments I've heard.

1) it was always a real possibility he would leave LA after one year. It's not a revelation that he becomes an unrestricted free agent now.

2) why would the media blast him? I think it's big news. Houston will be rolling out the red carpet and the media event should be very exciting.

3) why should Dwight care what the media thinks of it. The story will be over by the time the season starts and then they can write about how good this rockets team is.

 

You're entitled to your opinion and I'm not going to disrespect you like that and just respond to the points you make.

1) When he signed with LA, it was pretty much set in stone he was there to stay. Everybody believed and most still believe he's there to stay long term due to his love for the city (off-season) etc.

2) You think it's big news, but people around the league and fans know it was Houston that was about to trade for Dwight 2 years ago. That's when the Dwightmare started so he could've avoided all the negativity had he just accepted that he would be traded there. He's leaving another city and LA at that so he will definitely get blasted for it. Also consider all the theories and opinions on his little tantrum in the last game of the playoffs and everything that has already come out about his feelings towards D'antoni, Kobe etc.

3) Didn't you follow the whole dwightmare, he cares what the media thinks of him... a lot actually.

 

Sorry if you felt I disrespected your comments. It was nothing personal, I was just shocked to think that Dwight cares what the media thinks of him enough so that he wouldn't leave LA.

I never knew the LA media were so powerful but if Dwight cares as much about his media image as you say then you might be right in that he's too scared to leave LA.