Oh... well... that's the area of pure speculation. Neither me nor you have inside info to make statements about what's true or not true when it comes to Jimmy Buss and Kupchak's thinking. We can speculate but I don't see the point. Personally, I think the Lakers will likely play this strong. That makes more sense to me. But who knows. I'm more interested in the Warriors' own ability to sign him in this situation.
There is a gamble. It's called ruining your flexibility for the 2013 offseason and 2014 trade deadline in hopes that Andrew Bogut pans out. There is significant value to cap space. Maybe a free agent you like wants to sign with you on a reasonable deal. Maybe someone else falls through the cracks. Maybe a different team needs to cut salary for whatever reason and wants to trade players into your cap space. I could see trading for Bogut in September, when the offseason is wrapped up and you're attempting to fill out a roster. But it makes no sense to do it in late June or early July, which is when it would have to happen to be relevant to Dwight Howard. For a rebuilding team with cap space, the upside of flexibility far outweighs whatever benefit there is from one year of broken-down Bogut.
I don't think so, but perhaps...... of course, in the situation being discussed above, the Warriors would be without Lee and Barnes or Thompson. Even if that is true, I don't think that the Lakers would want to take on Bogut and Lee with the carrot of getting Barnes or Thompson.
Didn't make any statements regarding Buss' or Kupchak's thinking beyond this: IF DWIGHT DECIDES HE'S LEAVING LA, THE LAKERS WILL BE ASKING HIM IF HE IS WILLING TO WORK OUT A SIGN AND TRADE. This is the whole reason Mitch is being nice to him to begin with. They want to remain on good terms throughout his free agent decision so that he will cooperate with them if he is leaving. They want him to let them know as soon as possible and if he leaves they want to attempt to get something for him. What I stated was not true is that GS somehow has to trade away $20 some odd millon of salary for air. That is not how they will acquire him if they get him. They will trade for him outright if Dwight decides he wants to go there and they decide they want him.
I can't believe I got sucked back in, but I'll try one more time: The Lakers can't get a sizable TPE unless team is far enough under the cap that they could sign Dwight without a trade. And if that's the case, they'd just sign him. A hypothetical deal with the Warriors and Lakers would be something along the lines of Bogut or Lee, Barnes and filler. I'm fairly certain Lee would be a non-starter based on hurting their future flexibility, so what it comes down to is this: Is Jim Buss willing to shell out over $30 million for one year of a busted Bogut and send Dwight to an in-state division rival, all for the perk of Harrison Barnes? I highly, highly doubt it.
If Bogut cannot pass a physical, a team will not be taking him on with the expectation of getting better, but rather for other reasons (Barnes)? If they can find a team to take Bogut for Barnes, then they are closer to being able to get Howard (assuming he wants to play in GS).
Mitch is being nice to Howard because he wants him to resign with the Lakers. If a S&T happens it will have nothing to do with a warm and fuzzy feeling for the Lakers....
Maybe he's being nice to him because he hopes to him? Re caps part - or maybe not. Maybe they play it strong, like the Nets with D-Will.
Why the hell would Dwight agree to decrease the talent of the team he is going to? If a S&T happens it will be because it helps Howard (and the Lakers as a byproduct) or because it is necessary for the trade to be completed because of cap considerations.
Read my last 25 posts. Lakers can sign and trade Dwight to GS, GS could trade one of Bogut/Lee to Atlanta....or Milwaukee....or Charlotte....or....some other team with cap space that they need to spend. GS could send Barnes to LAL and LAL could wind up with a $17 million TPE. OR...GS could even trade Barnes to a third team for a draft pick and LAL could wind up with a $20 million TPE and a draft pick. There are more teams with huge cap space to fill then there are good to great players to fill it. And the teams have to spend 90% of the cap.
The problem is the timing. For it to be relevant to a Dwight Howard deal, your Atlanta/Milwaukee/Charlotte/whoever would have to give up a large chunk of their flexibility before free agency even starts. It is highly, highly unlikely that any team likes Andrew Bogut or David Lee enough to do this. Your scenario would be plausible if it were September, and a random team like the Bobcats had an owner willing to spend and figured they might as well fill out their roster. It's not going to happen on July 1 when the market hasn't even begun to settle. The upside of cap space/flexibility trumps what Golden State has to offer.
By the way, there's a trade moratorium in early July. any such trade partner would have till July 10 to look at free agents in any case. So if lets say some team prefers Millsap over David Lee, it will know if it's going to get Millsap by July 10 - which is also the earliest date you could do a Lee trade. Sure, there's value in maintaining the cap space till September, but we are talking about smaller acquisitions in this case. Small caliber free agents. Same with trade deadline. You may end up picking up some bust or some picks. or not. But it's kind of nitpicking.
New Article- The Logistics Of Dwight Ending Up With Golden State {RealGM} Unfortunately for the Golden State Warriors, the Collective Bargaining Agreement works against them in a very real way this summer. The rumors that Dwight Howard has interest in the Warriors can only be construed as incredibly encouraging in terms of the development of the franchise, but acquiring him would be very difficult to accomplish this summer. One of the new CBA rules that goes into effect this summer limits teams who are paying the luxury tax. In short, there is a salary level above the luxury tax called the apron ($4 million in salary above the luxury tax line) and teams over that line cannot do transactions like signing a player to the full mid-level exception, using the Bi-Annual exception, and starting this year they cannot acquire players via sign-and-trade. That limitation means that a team cannot sign a player and immediately trade them to a team over the apron, not the other way around. On top of that, doing any of these three things turns what usually functions as a soft cap that franchises can go over for times into a hard one, meaning that teams using these transactions absolutely cannot go over the apron for any period of time for any reason that season. While we do not know exactly where the luxury tax line will be for 2013-14, it stood at $70.307 million last season so the apron was $74.307 million. At the present moment, if Brandon Rush takes his player option and Carl Landry declines his, the Warriors sit at $71,680,588 with 13 players on the books (Curry, Lee, Bogut, Thompson, Barnes, Green, Ezeli, Rush, Jefferson, Biedrins, Bazemore, Jones and Machado). Even without any money allotted for Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry, the team would have approximately $2.6 million under the apron with a small amount of wiggle room depending on guarantees to the minimum guys. If they acquired Howard via sign-and-trade, the apron number would become a hard cap, so they would effectively need to either shed 2013-14 salary in the sign-and-trade, or fill out the roster with bare bones players. On top of all that, the Lakers would have to agree to send Dwight to a division rival, which may be dicey in and of itself, but would also require the Warriors to give up some players of value. While the Lakers would ask for Stephen Curry, a deal using either Klay Thompson or Harrison Barnes would likely still be palatable enough to make a trade possible. To balance the salaries Bob Myers would likely have to give up either Andrew Bogut or David Lee (almost definitely Bogut) since Biedrins and Jefferson provide no value beyond their expiring contracts. My best guess at a trade the Lakers would accept is Thompson or Barnes, Bogut, and either Draymond Green or Festus Ezeli for Howard. Dwight’s maximum salary for 2013-14 stands at $20,513,178 since that is a five percent increase on his current salary. As such, the deal I laid out above (Klay, Bogut, and Festus for Dwight, let’s say) would actually cost the Warriors an extra $3.13 million and put them over the apron without corresponding moves. Getting Dwight this summer sits within the realm of possibility but it would come at a steep, steep cost unless the Lakers are more generous than expected. The other factor looming over this whole situation has to be the way the Warriors chose to load up their 2013-14 cap figure. By using the amnesty provision on Charlie Bell’s expiring contract back in 2011, the Golden State front office lost the ability to shed either Andris Biedrins or David Lee’s contract at any point over the next few seasons. Using the amnesty on either would have given the Warriors the flexibility to make a move for Dwight Howard right now without the apron coming into play. What makes matters even more challenging this summer was the decision to effectively purchase the 2012 draft pick used to select Festus Ezeli for Richard Jefferson’s $11 million contract for 2013-14. Steven Jackson’s deal expires this summer and thus would have become cap space at this point. Switching that move or the amnesty decision would have given the Warriors enough space under the apron to acquire Dwight and retain either Jack or Landry with a little bit left over. While it would make dramatically more sense to acquire a high-level free agent next summer when the team has cap space, the Warriors conceptually could trade for Dwight Howard this summer even though key decisions made over the last few years created a substantially more difficult path to doing so. http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/227816/The-Logistics-Of-Dwight-Ending-Up-With-Golden-State
Why is this thread five pages and counting when The Cat has laid out reasons (VALID reasons I might add) on why Howard going to Golden State is as preposterous as thinking Chris Bosh was coming to Houston because of an iPad? The Warriors are better off keeping the team they have right now and wait for the summer of 2014 to come along when they will be $30 million under the cap.
The moratorium is largely irrelevant. Teams still agree to deals in those 10 days -- they're just not processed until the 10th. Business goes on as usual. The Joe Johnson deal was essentially official on July 2: http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/sto...e-trade-atlanta-hawks-joe-johnson-sources-say The Steve Nash deal was done on July 4, a day after Deron Williams essentially set the PG market with his deal on July 3: http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jul/04/sports/la-sp-ln-lakers-steve-nash-deal-20120704 http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--d...-100-million-contract-with-brooklyn-nets.html The problem in your Millsap scenario is that Paul Millsap is not going to sign before Dwight Howard. The superstars are the first dominoes to fall in free agency because they set the market. For example, the Rockets could conceivably have a lot of interest in Millsap or Josh Smith -- but they're not going to extend an offer until they hear from Dwight. So if getting the most money is a priority, and it is for most players, they're going to wait out the big guns and let things settle.
well sure, if Bogut is done, his value will be lower, and if he's fine it will be higher. If he's done, Davis Lee+Bogut combination might look a bit less attractive. If he's fine, it's a fairly awesome combo that might net something extra in return (besides pure just cap space). it's all speculation at this point since we've no clue about his current issues. But given Bogut's play this year and especially during the playoffs, I think there's no reason to be extremely pessimistic. He's looked well over the last 3 months including the playoffs, his defensive game was great. The Cavs took on what, some 20 mil, in the Baron Davis trade. They had no idea that the pick they got would win the draft, it was a lot lotto pick at that time, and Davis had two years on his contract and major health and character questions. So if they get an extra asset that they want - like Lee - it's far from an outrageous notion that they might take on a Bogut's expiring. Or maybe the Cavs are just talking playoffs and planning for Wiggins in silence, and we are wasting our time.
Not true. If deal is done it won't be until mid to late July and perhaps even later. Why would teams give up space before all the great free agents are gone? Well...because there are only 2 great free agents available...Dwight Howard and Chris Paul. That's it. The decision on where those guys are going is going to come pretty early most likely. And if it doesn't, then practially every other major free agent signing is going to be delayed until Dwight/Paul are sorted out. So, you tell me...if Dwight and Paul are going elsewhere...do you think teams like Milwaukee are going to attract and sign guys like Josh Smith/Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap to long-term deals when Houston is sitting there???? Nope. Milwaukee and Charlotte won't even get to first base. If they can acquire a talent like David Lee or a talent like Andrew Bogut (on an expiring deal no less) that they can possibly flip at the trade deadline for a draft pick after sucking their way through another season playing for the lottery and having to dish out 90% of the cap anyways....do you think they just might take on that contract????? Here's what you have to remember.....if Dwight leaves LAL, then Pau is NOT LEAVING...at least for the moment. If LAL is sucking at the trade deadline in 14, then they could possibly move him then. But they most likely won't be trading Pau immediately if Dwight walks. They're gonna play him, see if they can get something going good and at the very least build his trade value, and then move him or not move him at all at the trade deadline. So, with that in mind.....just who exactly are teams like Milwaukee and Charlotte going to attract to their cap space??? Do you think Josh Smith wants to go to Milwaukee?? Name them. What big time players want to go to Milwaukee??? (Hint: There are none. Maybe Devin Harris since I think he went to Wisconsin...that is if you consider him a big time player now.) Who is Atlanta going to attract there if Paul and Dwight are gone? They could re-sign Smith to a max deal and they still got $8-$10 million to spend to get to 90% of the cap. Charlotte needs another $10-$15 million to get to 90% of the salary cap? Who's gonna sign there? And...more importantly...who are they going to want to sign and clog up their cap for the next 4 years at a high figure??? When they're trying to get Wiggins/Parker??? Bogut traded to Charlotte makes a lot of sense especially if GS throws them a draft pick and $3 million to do it. Charlotte can then pay him until the deadline and flip him to a contender for junk expirings for another pick. These teams have to use their cap space. Teams like Charlotte ain't going to be interested in bringing in Al Jefferson and paying him big bucks for the next 4 years just to bring their team up to mediocrity and knock them out of the opportunity to get a true franchise superstar in the draft. That's the way Charlotte's front office is playing the game. They are essentially a pass-thru entity as far as basketball talent goes right now. They're trying to lose big to stay at the top of the lottery.
