Rockets acquire Thomas Robinson; Morris traded to Phoenix; Patterson, Douglas, Aldrich to Kings

Either way I am much happier not having PPat and his amazing lack of post D and rebounding on our starting lineup.

I would see Asik look at Pat sometimes with the evilest of EYES due to letting his man blow right by him.

 

Half the reason why people are frustrated with you is that it seems like you go into half of the threads on the board and post a one liner about how Patterson is great and Thomas Robinson is going to be a bust with 100% certainty. It's much like Royce White and the #protocol; you covered up a valid point by being so snarky and non-specific, that by the time you started explaining your viewpoints, everyone has already tuned you out as an obstinate contrarian who was funnier when he was making dick jokes. If you had started with this kind of statistical analysis, people might have listened to you. Now it's buried in a 3 month old thread,

I think that your concerns are perfectly valid, and while I like to think optimistically about players on the Rockets, I fully understand that the percentages are most likely against T-Rob. I do think there are some mitigating circumstances, but history is not on his side. I do think that you overemphasize Robinson's college experience and age; I'm of the opinion that a player's first off-season after getting kicked around for a year in the league is worth more than 4 years of college experience; a player knows what he has to work on, and for the first time, he's approaching playing basketball as a job, where he has to improve or he's costing himself millions of dollars.

That's why I really want to see Robinson again in the summer league before passing judgement. If he doesn't dominate, I'll be right there with you that he's just another gamble that didn't end up paying off.

When I watched Robinson play in his very limited minutes here in Houston, I saw a guy who was trying to dunk everything, play too fast, and make offensive plays whenever he touched the ball. If he learns that a layup is still worth 2 points, you could easily see his dunk% and inside% go up, as he removes impossible dunk attempts for touch layups. Terrence Jones is an excellent example of this, in that I often see him converting ugly layups so he gets the ball up before a defender can react. Patterson is the opposite, he almost developed the yips, so afraid his shot was going to get blocked when his ankle was recovering, he'd often miss little bunnies by getting too cute. Robinson really seemed out of sync with the coaching staff; he's really good at trapping on the pick and roll, but it's not a defense the Rockets usually play. Most of the time, they drop back the pick man and play ice (Patterson and Morris used to frequently switch as well, maybe that's why they got traded...). Additionally, Robinson was usually at his best at the traditional big man spots in college, low block and elbow. In both Houston and Sacramento, those areas weren't part of the gameplan. He'll have to relearn his pet moves, and find new areas of the floor to attack from.

None of that is easy, or likely. But it's not impossible, and with such a small sample size, and lots of ways that Robinson can improve with adjustment, fans of the site should still feel somewhat excited about his future. The shine is off the apple, but it still looks pretty damn good.

So in the words of a great general from a long time ago, never tell me the odds. Everything is something that's never happened before a person goes out and actually does it.

 

Here's the thing. I dont think any logical fan of the Rockets on here is going to argue that YES the probability of him becoming a great superstar is high. Like all rookies, its extremely low. That's a given.

Yes, we have learn some things about Thomas Robinson in the other rookie PF's in their first year with Houston as we have disected over the past 4 or 5 pages of this thread.

However what we didn't learn (and back to your original thesis that was the subject to my first disagreement with it) is that he wont be able to finish around the rim efficiently in the future because of his height.

You started with generalities like "Busty Robinson, Morris, and Thabeet" and "He's too short to finish at rim" and tried to back up your vendetta with advanced statistics about the probabilities of rookies succeeding in the NBA that dont have Lebron Jameslike rookie seasons.

If you want to hate the guy and bash him just because you hate Kansas University, and you love Patrick Patterson with all your heart that's fine. But there is no need to try so hard to justify it here and try to campaign against him or any other young players success in the near future.

Also, all of this effort is probably going to be moot because he's probably not going to be a Rockets very much longer if they want to clear cap space to go after someone like Dwight so there is no point.

 

I agree with this point. Rockets are probably trying to trade him to clear up room as they would be doing with Patterson if trade didn't go down. Based on how well Garcia played in the playoffs, I rate this trade as a meh at this point.

 

Keep in mind, though, that the Rockets won't be looking to dump Robinson unless and until a guy like Dwight Howard has agreed in principle to a contract with Houston. While I'm sure the Rockets will line up multiple trade scenarios with other teams that involve moving out some salary (Robinson's happening to fit best), they will not make such a trade before reeling in that big fish. And given that the odds of the Rockets ACTUALLY getting Howard are well below 50% (albeit still fairly probable), people shouldn't just assume that Robinson will be gone this summer.


I have not bothered to read much of this thread, as I imagine it is mostly CH making snide remarks about how terrible Robinson is and how great Patterson is.

Look, Patrick Patterson is one of my (and, more importantly, LilBimaThug's) favorite players. I love his game and never understood why he got so much hate from many posters on this BBS. (Also, as I mentioned on the podcast with Clutch last February, I didn't really like Robinson coming out of Kansas, so if anything, my personal bias here is very pro-Patterson and anti-Robinson, but I can set that aside here to think objectively about this.)

Patterson was not going to be a Houston Rocket beyond the February 2014 trade deadline.

Given his likely market value as a mid-level type player, the Rockets couldn't afford to spend that much cap room on him long-term. They want to add a second star and still have to pay Harden, Lin (or his successor at PG), Asik (or his successor) and Parsons during the span of whatever offer sheet Patterson would get. Trading him was a CERTAINTY. It was only mildly surprising that they traded him a few months earlier than I would have guessed (figuring that he would more likely be traded this summer).

So, what was the opportunity cost of losing Patterson, who as anyone with half a brain would realize was a better player than Robinson this season (yet CH continually felt the need to drive home this ever-so-obvious point)?

Missing the playoffs? Nope. The Rockets made it (albeit by a slimmer margin than most here would have liked).

Advancing to the second round? Not likely. I'm as big a Rockets fan as the next guy, but even without Westbrook, the Thunder were simply a better team than the Rockets. Plus, had the Rockets finished the regular season on a stronger note, they likely would have faced the Spurs, who (sorry, guys) would have crushed them. Even the Nuggets would have been a bad matchup for Houston (GSW just happened to match up better against Denver).

Meanwhile, the Rockets are just NOW having the full opportunity to work with Robinson on his game. Anyone looking at the Sacramento Kings can tell that their player development program is absolute crap. No one there gets better. Hell, DeMarcus Cousins might be one of the 10 most talented players in the league, and he's barely improving! It's no wonder that Robinson--who also had to battle vets like Cousins, Jason Thompson and Chuck Hayes for playing time--wasn't getting better over the first 2/3rds of his rookie year. Maybe--just maybe--with some PROPER player development investment in him, Robinson will improve as a player.

So, given that the end result opportunity cost of trading a better veteran (Patterson) for a worse rookie with a higher ceiling (Robinson) was likely ZERO, and given further that Robinson's trade value will objectively be higher and wider-spread around the league than Patterson's (from both a basketball and a cap management standpoint), I don't understand why people won't shut up with their complaining about the trade.

It's over. Move on. Let's see what Robinson can do. If he can give the Rockets anything of value on the court beyond February 2014, or if he can net the Rockets more in trade than an impending-free-agent Patterson could have, then the trade was a likely success. (I'm not even going to address the added benefit of getting Francisco Garcia.)

But maybe that's just me.

 

we didn't wait to amnesty Scola...

 

Nice post BimaThug.

Don't you think that Robinson is likely to be traded this Summer in creating cap space for Dwight, in a trade for CP3 or J.Smith?

 

There is a defined and narrow window in early/mid-July during which teams must elect to waive a player under the amnesty clause.

The Rockets, at the time, were in the hunt for Howard, and failing to exercise the amnesty on Scola during that window would have cost them Howard.

Here, trades can happen at any time. The Rockets will certainly speak to other teams about their players (including Robinson) and will attempt to line up POTENTIAL trades in the event that their Plan A or Plan B comes to fruition. However, unlike with the amnestying of Scola, there is no need to execute such trades before other plans align.

Most likely, yes. But as I said above, they won't make a move before lining up other moves. That would be shortsighted and inefficient.

 

Ignore that comment. I didn't read the first few lines properly.

 

The thing that I don't get about your relentlessness on this matter: What is your point? What are you trying to accomplish by not letting this die? Everyone knows your personal feelings. The Rockets aren't going to see your Robinson stats theories and make a decision from that. The bottom line is that 90% of the GMs in the league would have made that trade. Daryl Morey knows more about player evaluation than you could ever dream of. As Bima pointed out, Patterson was gone either way, and we weren't going to win a championship this year.

Is your goal to just say "I told you so" if Robinson doesn't pan out? On the flip side -- if Robinson develops into a Faried-like player, are you going to accept him and eat crow? I don't even understand why you like Patterson so much... the guy had great character by all accounts, but he was probably one of the 10-20 worst starters in the league.

 

To me and some others (and I guess that includes Patterson himself and coach McHale), it is more than mildly surprising. If Patterson's contract is the main thing, and if the trade was mainly for the flexibility of cap room ready for Howard, then why didn't we wait till the offseason? Why unnecessarily weaken the team for THIS season? Unless there is something Robinson has that is beyond clearing up the cap room. The obvious answer is that Robinson has the potential to be a better player than Patterson, which is the whole point of contention in this thread.

You answered that earlier. CH felt the need to debate because there are people who debate with him. There are quite a few people on this board that actually believe that Patterson is trash and we were giving up NOTHING for Robinson. I guess these people doesn't have "half a brain"! :grin:

 

Great insight as always. I've been wondering for awhile now if the Rockets would pull the trigger on draft night on a Robinson trade to secure the cap space even when they didn't know for sure whether or not Dwight would sign with Houston, or if they would risk going into July 1st without the cap space, and without a finalyzed deal for Robinson with another team taking him.

My personal opinion has been that they probably wouldn't, and might even seek alternative trade options for D-Mo & Jones for future picks if for some reason a Robinson trade fell apart at the last minute.

Maybe this is fodder for another thread but I am also curious to get your take on the Greg Smith situation as he's going to be an unrestricted free agent after next season, and Im wondering if the Rockets might cash in this Summer in a trade to move him for something of value given they dont want to risk over-paying him next Summer or losing for nothing(assuming he does get decent offers.)

Anyways would be curious to get your take on that as well. All I know is either the Rockets are going to make a huge splash in free agency and become contenders overnight, or us die-hards will have an interesting Summer/pre-season/season of watching these young bigs grow up or fall flat right before our eyes. Fun stuff.

Thanks

 

Other than last seasons Howard push in the Summer, my personal thought on this is that the timing also had alot to do with the glut of PF's behind Scola whose value & development would have be diminished behind Scola.

Morris and Patterson especially had to have been viewed in sink, swim, or learn how to doggie paddle mode. Both players were in a position to have the front office thoroughly evaluate whether or not they were worth investing in their future or not as a cornerstone of the franchise, and they had to see them in action for at least a half season to determine whether they were worth the investment or not.

The good news is neither of them sunk themselves out of the league, but both players obviously only showed that they were really better suited as a role player or niche player in the league, and the front office chose to keep taking gambles with high upside talent they had just drafted.

 

BimaThug,

1. Yes, the trade is done. The team has Robinson now and will work with him or trade him as the salary/free agency situation develops.

It doesn't mean, however, that people here can't talk about the trade and about Thomas Robinson as a prospect. If it were just me wanting to talk about it, this thread wouldn't have kept going. You may or may not want to read through a long thread, but assuming that it is all snide remarks by me would be incorrect-- I save those for twitter and its 140 characters.

2. Not sure one can assume that Patterson must go before deadline 2014 or that his pending free agency makes this a good trade.

First, the Rockets have a very good chance at being in much different situation regarding keeping vs. trading role players by perhaps as early as July 2013. Specifically, because the Rockets lacked a star since Yao's departure, their reasonable strategy has been to to accumulate assets desirable to a team needing to trade its disgruntled star (i.e., draft picks and young guys), take risks ("high upside" players like Terrence Williams, Marcus Morris and Royce White), and preserve cap room.

To this end, they have let the likes of Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes and Courtney Lee go to a large part because their potential FA contract would hurt cap flexibility and that they are not the kind of high-upside assets that the team needed while in search for a star.

The incentives would be different if the Rockets do land its 2nd star and is ready to become a 55+ win/contending team. Morey himself said that such a team would be looking for solid role players over high risk prospects. Also, after acquiring its core of likely high paid elite players, a team would have less worries about preserving cap room. For example, Morey asked Chuck Hayes to wait on free agency in 2011 because they would have needed him had they been able to acquire the Pau Gasol/Nene combo that year. If the Rockets do acquire a Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, Pau Gasol, etc., it would mean that a guy you can count on to defend and make open shots being signed to an MLE-type deal would be a useful part of the team.

Second, even assuming that the Rockets would not be in a position to pay Patterson's free agent market value, it doesn't mean that you won't be able to realize a better or comparable value for him than what they got in February 2013.

A player can be traded for some useful assets both as an expiring contract as long as you are willing to take back some salary (Battier, Jordan Hill) or even after hitting free agency in a sign and trade (Courtney Lee). So, the comparison is not really Thomas Robinson vs. the certainty of losing Patterson for nothing.

At this point, Patterson for an extra year plus later trading him for a protected first round pick or a 2nd around pick (i.e. the returns in the Battier, Hill and Lee trades) look objectively better than Robinson-- lower salaries/cap hit and similar probability for future success.

3. So, what are the opportunity costs?

First, as set forth above, the Rockets may well be able to use Patterson next season and beyond after getting a 2nd star-- a "spread 4" would be good to go with Dwight Howard, for one. Solid role players are not as hard to find as stars, but they do cost some of a team's assets to acquire (some combo either shelling out free agency money, trading something or using a draft pick and hoping that the guy you picked is Chandler Parsons rather than Joey Dorsey and Jermaine Taylor). So, it's of some value to have one under contract, plus having the right of first refusal that come with restricted free agency.

Second, the Rockets did make the playoffs, but by weakening themselves, they also did put playoffs at greater risk than needed. With some worse luck for the Rockets, missing the playoffs was a non-remote probability. Just because things worked out doesn't mean that the decision didn't carry risks (for example, if Omer Asik makes a technical foul free throw after McHale sends him to take it, it doesn't mean that there wasn't a substantial chance of Asik missing it or that McHale will have played the odds correctly).

They also could have gotten a better seeding than 8th (the difference between 6th and 8th was very thing) or become more competitive either vs. OKC or in another series. In the end, things more or less worked out as OKC lost Westbrook. But this doesn't mean that the decision didn't carry opportunity costs.

 

wait so you're saying they shouldn't have traded patterson for t-rob????????


This is so new!!!


But on a side note: Bima's point was...that Patterson would get paid more then what we could offer while chasing the big names...so he would be gone after 2014...I think 99% of us will trust bimas view on this since it is directly linked to our cap situation.

Second, that they felt that trob was more then what they would ever get for him including trade deadline 2014. So essentially they sold high. (seems to line up with many of the comments from league execs at time of trade)

Ill trust the talent scouting of Morey and our squad of MIT grads that produce the likes of Beverly, and Parsons and Brooks, and Landry out of thin air (WHEN NO ONE ELSE SAW THE SAME TALENT IN THEM) ....and and and.... not you on this matter.

thank you, come again.

 

Fair enough points.

(Apologies for making assumptions about your contributions to this thread. Admittedly, I am basing my feelings off the constant barrage of tweets you compose--either to Morey, to me or to the general public--and your steady stream of "one-liners" in other threads.)

 

I won't trust Morey nor a fan.

I'll simply trust Robinson's performance. I haven't given up on him but I wasn't pleased with how he did play this season.

 

There're a couple things I want to add:

1) Trob's problematic finishing isn't something completely new, so one can't say his struggle finishing in NBA is new proof significantly changes his future outlook. Below is what Kevin Pelton mentioned before the season starts:

2) Ppat's delayed mid-season foot surgery is a serious concern. There're multiple meetings with doctors before he decided to go for a safe route and continue playing. I predicted he'll choose that because his contract for next season is team option, so he's at risk of unemployment had he chosen the mid-season surgery. At certain point his trade value is almost 0, and a lot of people on BBS mentioned how we should trade him earlier or ASAP when we get a chance.

 

This is a lot of talk for what in the end amounts to a moot point. Have you considered the possibility that the Rockets simply do not value Patterson that highly as a player? That he is unworthy of a MLE type deal, even though he will most likely receive one.

Daryl Morey recently commented on Jeremy Lin contributing the 3rd most to the Rockets winning this year. The only stat that I know of that measured Lin in a similar light all year long was RAPM. This same stat is no longer publicly available since the owner is hired by a NBA team. It is clear that the Rockets value this type of adjusted +/- highly in their player evaluation.

This same stat valued Patrick Patterson as the worst rotation player on the team, only above Toney Douglas. It is no coincidence that both are no longer with the team.

Given the Rocket's likely view of Patterson, they probably viewed the trade as addition by subtraction, with Patterson's minutes going to smallball that was a positive all year long.

With that said, there are risks to every transaction. There are no stats that are fullproof. You are right, it is all probabilities. Maybe, this time, RAPM or whatever iteration the Rockets use, got it wrong.

This is what Leslie Alexander, Daryl Morey's boss, and the owner of the team, thinks about probabilities and risk taking:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>More Alexander on Morey"It's hard 2get GMs willing 2take the risk&amp;have confidence in themselves 2 do the right thing.That's what Daryl does"</p>&mdash; Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/status/330735226198298625">May 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Mind you, Alexander made his fortune as a Bond trader, so he knows a thing or two about risk/reward.

That is what separates those who have success, and those who type behind keyboards. Not only the intellect, but the confidence to take the risks that all your hard work in the end tells you to take. And the willingness to live with the odds.

By all accounts you seem like a smart guy Carl. But you know nothing about running a business, a basketball team, or the stock market. Stick to the snide remarks.

 

Even though he played limited minutes (15.01) in his rookie season and still averaged 4.8 ppg and 4.5 rpg with a per of 10.97?

I swear you guys are ridiculous with your expectations of rookies. That must mean Donatas Motiejunas is on your list of players that you are "unpleased" with cause he averaged 5.7 ppg and 2.1 rpg with a 12.25 per this season which isn't too far from T-Rob's stats.