Who Will Be the #1 Overall Draft Pick?

Our supplemental first round pick last year was #41 overall, this year out 2.1 pick is #40 overall, so there is a slight increase in slot value.

McCullers fell due to signability as well as some teams believing him to be a reliever/closer prospect vs. starter.

Kohl will go in the first round and IMO is in play to go first overall to the hometown nine.

 

I didn't realize there were fewer supplemental picks. Didn't think about that possibility. So very similar position. It will be somebody most likely ranked in the teens/twenties, who wants top 10 money.

BA has Stewart ranked 6th in their Top 500.

 

The sad part is that pick 2.1 wold be higher (#35 or #36 overall) if it weren't for the stupid competitive balance lottery picks.

 

Yeah i know, the Cardinals and Tigers with their combined 260 million payroll certainly need help.

 

Well, the Tigers traded for theirs, they weren't given it.

 

Get this man in an Astros uni NOW

 

Yeah I'm starting to be more sold on Bryant. I want pitching, but it all goes down to who the best player is and who will save us the money (bryant might). This sure will be a fun draft, can't wait to see what happens. I'm hoping for another surprise like a "McCullers" type pick

 

So with Bryant doing so well when does he not accept below slot at #1?

 

Not necessarily. Cubs are definitely taking the best pitcher available. So if we don't take Bryant at 1, he definitely falls to 3 at least.

 

With Boras advising Bryant, I don't see Bryant signing for less money. The only players IMO that will sign for lower than slot money are Gray, Meadows, Frazier and Stewart.

 

Bryant has previously said he would sign for less than the 1.1 slot. Boras might be able to change his mind though.

 

If the Astros like both Appel and Bryant Boras can collude to make sure if either one is selected it will be at slot. Not sure if we can get in a bidding war against the same agent.

 

They will take less than slot, but just a matter of how much.

Of course they can bid against each other. Bryant knows he is probably the 3rd pick or the 1st pick. Boras knows this to. And it isn't like Gray can't be used against both, even if we don't prefer him.

Boras won't get punked, but he isn't going to screw his potential clients (I don't think it is official until they are drafted, since they always say advisor instead of agent).

 

Spoiler

Analysis: The industry thinking is that the Astros will try to cut a deal with Gray for less than it would cost to sign Mark Appel, then applying the savings to later picks where they might sign players to bonuses that exceed MLB's recommendations.

There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics.

Besides Gray and Moran, Mark Appel and perhaps Kris Bryant all seem to be in consideration, and maybe (but probably not) Clint Frazier. If last year is any guide, the Astros won't make a final decision until a few hours or even minutes before the pick.

 

I don't understand, isn't Colin Moran a sophomore? How is he eligible for this draft?

EDIT-Also thought this was funny.

 

I have a hard time seeing them taking Moran, who profiles as a 1B (nobody seems to be high on him at 3B). He has a great BB/K ratio, but likely wouldn't give you great power.

I see Moran similar to Mark Grace or Sean Casey in the majors.

 

Moran is a Junior.

Sophmores can be eligible via JC or turning 21 by the draft.