Rockets acquire Thomas Robinson; Morris traded to Phoenix; Patterson, Douglas, Aldrich to Kings

Because we really needed post defense against the spectacular back to basket scoring frontcourt of Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka.

You don't remember how horrible we were when we played Pat at C?

Yeah, because small ball really hurt the team in that series.

And Patrick Patterson coming off surgery into the last year of his rookie deal would have good value?

 

1. Of course McHale will work with T-Rob in the offseason to improve. It's his job to help all players under contract improve. It's not like he's got that many other duties during the offseason.

2. Whatever the cause of Robinson's inability to put the ball into the basket when he's at the rim, the fact is that, unlike skills like 3 point shooting, it's one of these abilities that guys tend not to get dramatically better at after entering the NBA (particularly when doing so as a relatively experienced college player with a developed "NBA body").

Big who are excellent finishers around the basket tend to be so even as rookies. On the other hand, Reggie Evans, who is an excellent rebounder and good energy guy, has struggled his entire career with making layups over NBA defenders.

 

The story about the deaths in the family and his little sister needing him makes me root for him. But I think that same story also may cast some doubt on his potential.

We're all familiar with the "contract year" phenomenon where players play better because they're more motivated, since they're entering free agency and want a shiny contract. Sometimes, this boost is temporary because they're not able to sustain that high level of motivation and performance.

In TRob's case, the college coach and teammates all said that he had to get drafted that year, and that he couldn't spend more time in school. His grandparents and mother all died, leaving just him and his little sister. So he needed an NBA contract to start providing for her and try to gain custody. So he had enormous pressure and motivation, resulting in a surprising jump in his play.

If this boost is unsustainable, like the "contract year" phenomenon, and he's reverting to mean, that means he was drafted above where he should be because he was playing out of his mind during draft scouting.

Yes, every draft prospect is under pressure and tries to play better to get drafted. But TRob's situation was an entire magnitude of motivation, desperation, need, and fear all together. He was playing out of his mind in order to secure his little sister's future now that his whole family had died in the span of a few months.

I hope he's able to keep that motivation, and continue to improve. But if that motivation flags, like it does for guys exiting their contract year, then we may see that he was very overvalued in the draft based on anomalous pre-draft play. It's very tiring and perhaps inherently unsustainable, to maintain that edge of motivation where your entire family has died and you're fighting for custody of your little sister and her future.

I'm hoping I'm wrong and I'm rooting for him. But, realistically, I think odds are that he won't pan out. Young prospects don't pan out more often than not. And I find his size troubling. Maybe it's just optical effects, but he seems a bit undersized and not really the height that he's billed as.

 

First of all while he did play 3 yrs in college his freshman yr he didnt play at all his sophomore season he backed up all big 12 Morris twins who were lottery picks. He didnt get to really play till his junior yr.

I'm a big Kansas fan I watch almost all there games for the past 15 yrs. Trob is one of those guys who plays with passion and really lives the game. He's really competitive and wants to win at all costs. He got vastly better from sophomore to junior seasons. The undersized thing is blown way out of proportion and with his strength athletism and almost 7'4 wingspan it's really a non factor.

I think his game in the NBA will get better very similar to how his college career went. Rookie season was a learning experience, 2nd yr he will be a rotation guy who plays a pretty big roll then his 3rd season he will be starting and a very very good player maybe even Allstar level.

When I watched him play this yr for the rockets i saw the same Trob is saw in college. Using his speed handle and strength to get to the basket while pulling down boards and running the floor like a mad man. Guys gonna be a player in the NBA there's no doubt in my mind about that, now if he gets to his potential of Allstar level talent I don't know. But the skill and basketball instincts are there. I think everyone will be surprised with Trob next season and many will have changed there Minds about him being the pf of the future.

 

His quickness and ball handling is FREAKISH for his size... I have high hopes.

Post work with McHale, and hundreds of midrange jumpers a day...

 

Tristan Thompson is pretty much as close a comparison as we can get these days in the NBA. He's 4 days older than T-Rob, has eerily similar physical measurements, came into the league as a top 5 pick with an NBA-ready body and athleticism, and also struggled mightily his first year, with a virtually identical shooting profile and per minute stats to Robinson, except he got his shot blocked even more frequently.

He was able to drastically improve his game this year, increasing his offensive efficiency on inside shots, looking more comfortable, and posting some huge rebounding games. It's not such an impossibility that a similarly sized player can learn to finish more effectively while harnessing their raw athleticism.

Looking purely at the stats, Thomas Robinson's statline just doesn't make sense; he only shot .750 on dunks, but was only blocked 4% of the time; so somehow he was way below the league average of around .90, despite not having his shot blocked all that often. In Houston it was even worse, he managed to flub 3 dunks without ever being blocked once! In baseball, BABIP far away from the .300 baseline is usually a heavy candidate for regression, and T-Rob looks ripe for a regression to the mean with regards to his dunk conversions (and tip-in attempts), and if that happens, the rest of his conversion rates will start to look better and better.

 

Classic...

 

Yes, I remember how horrible we were when we played Smith. Just come out and say that you believe Patterson would have been a worse backup C than Smith so we all know how much you really hate Patterson.

And no, we didn't lose with small ball. But the value of a guy like Patterson is that you don't have to play small ball on the defensive end while you can still stretch the opponent's defense at the other end.

I am not going to argue about trade value. For now, nobody really know how much trade value Robinson has because he has shown nothing. All he has is potential. And potential has a price and some GM may buy it. So we'll see.

 

1. Interesting point on the possible "regression to the mean" on his dunk shots. However, even if he had hit 90% of his dunks instead of 78% (the 75% number you cited were his stats with the Kings only) this year, his % on "at rim" shots would still be a below-average 58%. Also, the regression to the mean may well go the other way, too-- given that Robinson got a significant % of his layups (i.e. shots near the rim that are not dunks and not tips) blocked, he might just be lucky that a low % of his 50 dunk attempts on the season were blocked.

2. About Tristan Thompson: Yes, these two were born 4 days apart, but they were drafted a year apart. So, Thompson accumulated his stats as a skinny 227 lb (his official draft combine measurement) 20-year-old who spent 1 year in college. Robinson accumulated his stats as a 244 lb 21-year-old who spent 3 years in Kansas. Both the 1 year difference in age and the significant difference in body maturity means that Thompson's struggles are less worrying in terms of future potential. Thompson also was significantly more offensively efficient as a rookie than Robinson, at least Thompson didn't add ungodly # of turnovers to the equation.

 

Pat would have found a way to be effective.

 

Luis Scola - Very experienced. Came to the NBA with "NBA body"

Shooting % at the rim from year 1 to 5
61%
60%
65%
66%
70%

It makes no sense to say players can't get better at the rim. Perhaps this is true for certain types of players, like a tall stiff such as Cato who can only dunk. Or a guard like Brooks who'll never be able to finish in traffic well. But for someone with inside moves like Robinson, he's most certainly capable of getting better at the rim.

Is it's possible that he won't improve? Certainly. But if he works hard and dedicates himself, he'll certainly get better under the basket with time.

 

Hey, Brooks has improved his finishing % - don't hate on the little guy!

 

And Scola at 60.8% this year at the rim.


The variations in his shooting % are more likely matter of how often he gets easier opportunities at the rim each year as well as a matter of luck rather than a matter of a substantial improvement in skills. For example, if he gets more uncontested or lightly contested transition layups one season, he's likely to have a somewhat higher at rim FG% than when he gets more of these shots out of a half-court set-- I don't think it's surprising that he shot his lowest % at the rim when playing for the slower paced Rockets teams of the Yao era.

Skill-wise, he's been pretty much the same guy at the rim-- pretty good touch and footwork, but no explosiveness. It's not like he broke out something in 2011-12 that he didn't have before.

 

You just do not give up on this topic. Astounding

 

By this logic, I can say Robinson has been "unlucky" and that he'll improve simply by the virtue of working with better coaches and getting easier shots due to a better system.

Hence, his results will still improve based on your logic and help the team more.

 

Sure, luck is a part of it. Next year, Robinson may well shoot significantly better-- OR WORSE-- than what he shot at the rim this season due to luck.

However, I've watched Robinson enough to know that his low % at the rim is not just a matter of luck-- and the coaching staff seems to share in this belief in deciding to bench him. Robinson struggles holding onto the ball (as reflected in his high TO%), is too short (TV broadcasters repeatedly commented about how small he looked) and doesn't have a soft touch with his shots.

Scola was an average-at-best finisher around the basket due to his lack of explosiveness despite a decent touch. He was, however, at least functional at that distance and brings other skills to the table such as a plus jump shot from 10 to 20 feet.

Also, it should be noted that your at-rim #s from basketball-reference.com does not match those from another site, hoopdata.com, which has Scola's at rim # at 62, 62, 65.4, 63.4, 65.2 and 63.5%. The difference is likely a matter of how each site records certain of Scola's scoop shots released somwhere between 2 and 4 feet from the basket. http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Luis Scola The hoopdata numbers show more of a small year-to-year fluctuation rather than any kind of improvement trend.

 

Time will tell if he will get better or not,but if you don't gamble you won't succeed CH.
A future "T-Rob" may turnout to be a star.

 

He's going to look SO MUCH better next season when the game is just a little slower for him. I love the Tristan comparison I believe they will have similar paths.

 

All of this talk about how Robinson can't finish at the rim is ridiculous. The reason why he was benched both in Sacramento and Houston was because of his shot selection, and not always knowing where to be on both ends of the court. Basically ROOKIE mistakes that almost all rookies make.

Robinson was never benched for missing shots around the rim. In all actuality the Rockets would take 60% of Robinson's shots around the rim, if that was the shot they were getting all day long. That has nothing to do with his issues so just stop with the bias argument.

Look at Asik as an example of a player who is naturally a poor finisher around the rim. When he blew a layup did the Rockets pull him out of the game because he was hurting his percentage around the rim? No.

What Robinson needs to work on is the things that a guy like Asik does that keeps his value on the floor. That's being smart, and doing the little things to help your team win. Then over time, he can work on homerun type of plays like going Iso from the high post, and trying to posterize guys with highlight dunks.

Less homerun plays, more small, smart team plays. If he can work on doing that next year, he can be a very impactful player for the Rockets moving forward.

 

Your about as on point as can be. I have watched Trob for 4 yrs now. The guy is a hard worker elite athlete can run the floor and already has an NBA skill in rebounding. He was picked #5 for a reason and had any other team been in the top 5 they would have taken him too. He's a unique offensive prospect while unpolished because of his ability to draw fouls and using his quickness and strength with his handles to get easy looks around the basket.

It's well chronicled that he played very well in practice this yr. this leads me to believe that the game was just to fast for Trob as it is for most rookies not named lebron James. There's not doubt that he will get much better finishing around the rim. The inprovment we will see in his game will be drastic, don't be surprised come opening night when Trob is in the starting lineup.