I was thinking that as well. I want to keep Norris, but if by moving him for players will also increase our chances of Rodon I'm all for it. As long as we get a respectable package for Norris though.
Those stats suggest that college pitchers Appel/Gray have a significantly lower probability of becoming an allstar vis-a-vis college hitters Bryant/Moran. 22.2% versus 2.61%. That is almost by a factor of 10. The money play may be to draft and sign Bryant (consensus #3) for #3 money. The money saved could to use to convince some high potential HSers to forgo college. This would be the same strategy the Astros used last year. This strategy does not address the Astros future ToR pitching needs. But drafting Appel/Gray would not *likely* either. The ToR pitching money play would be to load up on HS pitchers in the higher rounds, every year. And roll the dice. One of these picks will eventually hit. For all we know that ToR pitcher may already be in our system. We have a bunch of pitchers who are not top prospects, but still could have a break out year and become the ToR pitcher we need. Pitchers like Joe Bircher, Vincent Velasquez, Brian Holmes, David Rollins, Brady Rodgers, Aaron West, Jake Buchanan, David Martinez, Asher Wojciechowski, Ross Seaton, Bobby Doran, Nick Tropeano, and Wes Musick. Even pitchers who have had their first cup of coffee like Jordan Lyles, Brad Peacock, Alex White, John Ely and Dallas Keuchel. Its a numbers games. One of these pitchers is bound to hit.
Nice points.. An article that echos your thoughts regarding Bryant as well. If we can get this guy for under slot again I would be all for it. http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...rt-kris-bryant-3b-of-university-of-san-diego/
Gray will be pitching today at 2pm. You can follow here: http://www.cstv.com/gametracker/launch/gt_mbasebl.html?event=1221495
This is what I'm hoping for. If we pass on Appel the Cubs will snap him up and the Rockies are the best bet for Bryant. By offering Bryant a little above # 3 slot money we can likely get him for less than 6 million at # 1 saving up to 2 million for 2-1. If Kohl Stewart would put the word out that he wouldn't sign for less than top 10 slot we could take the savings and be able to afford him at 2-1. Just like last year dream scenario get the top bat in the class and one of the top arms.
Take this for what it's worth.... http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?774859-Cubs-2013-1st-round-MLB-Draft-options/page112 Poster ABTY7: "Houston locked in on Manaea, Bryant or Frazier- all of whom have indicated that they will sign well below slot. Cubs will have choice of Appel or Gray. Team likes Appel more; Gray more willing to sign under slot... Cubs haven't missed a Stanek start to date, either." "I was of the understanding that they were going to take Gray, however the same Houston scout that told me they were locked in on Correa mentioned Manaea, Frazier and Bryant... Surprisingly, he seems to believe they are 'in love' with Bryant..."
Bryant leads the college ranks with HRs and knows how to talk a walk. Visions of Lance Berkman may be dancing through Luhnow's head.
Every day that goes by I think Bryant will be the pick a little more. And I would have no problem with it.
Especially if it would allow them to use the money left over from signing him to get a high-upside pitcher with pick 40 and maybe another high-upside guy later in the draft.
Justin Verlander, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, & Tim Lincecum were all college pitchers. Since this was measured purely on WAR, the stat may just favor batters. These numbers would lead you to believe that you should draft a hitter over a pitcher every time, but that ignores how much harder it is to find a dominating pitcher.
Agree. If my scouts told me they thought Appel/Gray had a great chance of making it to the big leagues but were more likely to be a #2-3 type of starter rather than a true Ace, and they said they think Bryant could be a all-star level 3b, i'd go with Bryant. If they told me they thought Appel/Gray have true Ace potential, then unless there are signability concerns i'm taking one of them
well, if true, i guess they had no interest whatsoever in appel last year, and his nuts year this year wasn't enough to sway them. the idea of getting 2 aces at the top of the next 2 drafts was appealing to me, but i'm not going to complain no matter what they do. i have full faith in luhnow and co..
While having/getting true ace potential is desirable certainly, opinions of college level talent is just that, opinions. Lots of guys with the perceived potential dont get there and guys in the rough become aces. Stacking the future rotation with #2-#3 guys isnt a bad thing. Imagine if the entire rotation, down to the #4 and #5 were also #2-#3 caliber guys? I am not really disagreeing with you, more just saying that stocking up on guys a tier down could be just as valuable if you end up with five of them. I suppose the question(s) becomes, how many farm folks already in the system project better than #4-#5 range? What percentage are likely to actually get there?
I agree. If the numbers say the top 10 bat has a 10X better chance of making it, I would have no problem with Bryant though. Especially is he signed under slot an allowed another pick of someone who slid because of money. McCullers at this point looks like the real freaking deal
http://sbb.scout.com/2/1291189.html Given what I know right now, Rodon and Beede would both rank behind Stanford RHP Mark Appel and Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray, the top two prospects in this year's draft, and be in the same range as Nevada RHP Braden Shipley, a projected top 10 pick in my most recent mock draft. As you can read below, Rodon has the upside to be in the class of Appel and Gray if he regains the form of his freshman year. The depth of the 2013 and 2014 college pitching crops look pretty similar, but what makes 2014 a superior overall draft class is the high ceiling prep talent (breakdown coming soon). All that said, it's still very early, so take this breakdown as the first snapshot of a changing landscape, which I'll be updating a lot over the next 13 months. Rodon was the big name entering the spring but he told me after I watched a disappointing start that he's had soreness in the muscles around his throwing shoulder all spring and his velocity has been down. In the game I saw, he flashed a 94-96 mph heater with a plus slider in the first and was 89-92 mph with a solid-average slider and diminished command the rest of the game. I'm told this has happened most of the season and he acknowledged as much. Rodon flashes two 65 or 70 pitches when he's right but his fringy changeup, height, lack of projection, lack of standout athleticism and vanishing stuff all are big hurdles to consistently showing and commanding that knockout stuff that could make him the #1 overall pick. Rodon is still the top college pitcher in the class right now, but he may not be if his stuff doesn't rebound soon.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>2013 LHP Jake Brentz (MO) up to 94 mph in the first inning of <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23PGPreDraft">#PGPreDraft</a></p>— Perfect Game USA (@PerfectGameUSA) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerfectGameUSA/status/334002332587134978">May 13, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>2013 RHP Andrew Dunlap (TX) w/ quick inn. striking out the side w/ his FB sitting 94-96 & CB for strikes. Impressive <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23PGPreDraft">#PGPreDraft</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23MLBDraft">#MLBDraft</a></p>— Perfect Game USA (@PerfectGameUSA) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerfectGameUSA/status/334021398748069889">May 13, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Dunlap flashed a good CH at 84 MPH with run<a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23PGPreDraft">#PGPreDraft</a></p>— Steve James (@SteveJamesPG) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveJamesPG/status/334021099585163265">May 13, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
If ROdon is not the 1st pick in 2014 don't worry Touki Toussaint might be... Kid is very special and is getting better...
