Excellent read: Risky Business: The MLB Draft - Part One <img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2522073/1-Sample_medium.jpg" class="photo" alt="1-sample_medium"> <img src="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2522089/3-inmajors_medium.jpg" class="photo" alt="3-inmajors_medium">
Interesting that HS pitchers in the Top 10 vs. Top 50 are basically equally likely to make the majors, while the other 3 categories show a good disparity.
I suspect that HS to MLB pitching is a longer journey than the others. Among the top prospects, the scouts must have a harder time piking those can and can not make the journey.
Crawfish Boxes: Mock Draft, v1.0 The TCB team projects that the Astros will take Appel #1; with 2-1 (#40 overall), they believe that they'll go with Jake Brentz, a LHP from Parkway South High School, in the St. Louis area. He's a Missouri commit. Who is Jake Brentz, you ask? This is the snippet from TCB. In February, I introduced you to Andrew Dunlap, a RHP from Westbury Christian, here in Houston. He took part in a Perfect Game Indoor Showcase, and turned some heads with a fastball that touched 96. Well, also participating was Jake Brentz. He was an outfielder who hit nearly .400 in 2012. But... when Brentz took the mound, he showed the scouts that he was a fireballer in the making. In the Indoor Showcase in February, he hit 94. <object id="flashObj" width="480" height="270" classid="clsid27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,47,0"><param name="movie" value="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1&isUI=1" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="flashVars" value="videoId=2029140207001&playerID=1684488549001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAACC1laJk~,tMO2d6O4mickzCfG8Kpt2wQCZRxpuzpo&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" /><param name="base" value="http://admin.brightcove.com" /><param name="seamlesstabbing" value="false" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="swLiveConnect" value="true" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /><embed src="http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1&isUI=1" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" flashVars="videoId=2029140207001&playerID=1684488549001&playerKey=AQ~~,AAAACC1laJk~,tMO2d6O4mickzCfG8Kpt2wQCZRxpuzpo&domain=embed&dynamicStreaming=true" base="http://admin.brightcove.com" name="flashObj" width="480" height="270" seamlesstabbing="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" swLiveConnect="true" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash"></embed></object> *If the video (auto-play alert) isn't showing, here's the link: http://www.ksdk.com/sports/article/351781/6/Local-baseball-player-has-great-potential St. Louis Post-Dispatch: Parkway South's Brentz impresses with fastball; Thompson fields offers Prep Baseball Report: Brentz's stock skyrockets behind mid-90s fastball Perfect Game Spring Top Showcase, April 21: <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/k4iNkmcYdbI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Brentz is currently participating in the Iowa Spring Wood Bat League, which is run by Perfect Game. Steve James is the league director. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Jake Brentz pitching at 90-92 MPH, touched 95 MPH on first pitch.<a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23iowaspringleague">#iowaspringleague</a></p>— Steve James (@SteveJamesPG) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveJamesPG/status/328515022554808321">April 28, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Jake Brentz sets new spring league record with 96 MPH FB!<a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23iowaspringleague">#iowaspringleague</a></p>— Steve James (@SteveJamesPG) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveJamesPG/status/320970006135451650">April 7, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>One scout had Brentz up to 97!<a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23iowaspringleague">#iowaspringleague</a></p>— Steve James (@SteveJamesPG) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveJamesPG/status/320978060641980416">April 7, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
^^ Dunlap has committed to Rice. He's an interesting guy -- he actually delayed his high school graduation by a year in order to go to a better college baseball program (or possibly the MLB draft). He's unpolished as a pitcher from what I've heard, since he just switched over from catching recently.
Yeah, I don't know if that might be an awful lot of pressure on the kid to be as good as his dad was. I'd pick strictly based on talent but that has to be a consideration.
I've seen several draft boards now saying that Cavan will likely go in the late first round. If he really wanted to play in his hometown he could put out a statement that he plans to go to college in the hopes that he could slip to the Astros.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-chat-with-jim-callis-may-9/ Jim Callis: With the college arms, Appel (Stanford) and Gray (Oklahoma) are on a tier to themselves. Next group is Shipley (Nevada), Stanek (Arkansas) and Manaea (Indiana State) in some order. After that, Crawford (Florida) is in a bigger group that includes Anderson (Jacksonville), Wahl (Mississippi), Eades (LSU), Blair (Marshall), Balog (San Francisco) and Alex Gonzalez (Oral Roberts). Wally (Memphis, TN): Is Kris Bryant polished enough to make a Ryan Zimmerman like ascent to the majors? Jim Callis: Not that quick, because he’s not as polished a defender as Zimmerman was and swings and misses more than Zimmerman did. Bryant won’t need a lot of time in the minors, but I don’t see him up this September. Rick (Sherbrooke,QC): If illigible in this year draft, where would you have rank Rondon & Beede ? Jim Callis: I’d put Carlos Rodon No. 3 because his command hasn’t been as sharp as that of Appel and Gray. You could argue those guys in any order, though. Beede would fit in the 6-10 range somewhere.
Oh wow Gray to number 1. I'm still very torn on who I want, shoot part of me wants us to take Bryant!! haha.
I wonder, when I see things like this . .with Luhnow being a stats guy, if this played into the draft strategy last year. If there isn't a huge difference in all of the top guys chances of becoming a stud, then the numbers would certainly say to take the guy who will take less money leaving more for others later . . . I also wonder this about Rodon. Let's say we are nearing the trade deadline and our record and the Marlins is very close, and Luhnow thinks that Rodon is the real deal. Could that be a factor in the possibility of trading Norris and/or Harrell? I mean if you have an offer that you think is pretty good but maybe a tiny bit less than what you wanted, BUT you think that by moving him you get a little worse NOW and end up with the first pick and Rodon Just thinking a little . . .
