[Podcast] Morey on 610 today: talking Lin, free agency & expectations for next year

Yep. I admit, stupid questions.

I love stats and I'm a big fan of Dork Elvis.

 

Dude, major props on this post. If all of your post are this spot on then you need to come out of retirement. Just be warned, you will definitely be labeled an LOF after this one.

 

lol...that's ok.

I'm sure I was labeled an AB only fan a few years ago....

But, I've been a Rockets fan since shooting hoops in my driveway wearing a home made t-shirt "jersey" with #24 written in red marker with the name "Murphy" written on the back. (yes, I liked 'em both and couldn't make up my mind! lol)

 

This is an awesome post. Well done sir!

 

Awesome post. Two things you mention are the reasons I want Lin to go somewhere else: LOH pervasiveness in Houston and McHale's impact on Lin. The third reason is I honestly think the type of bbal The Rockets play anyone can play PG so we don't need the kind of players like Lin. He'd be a better fit on, e.g, the Bulls team this year.

Now before all you LOH jump on me for "blaming Lin's poor play on the coach" and all you LOF get mad at me for stirring up troubles and causing Lin stress, think about it for a moment. I am not blaming McHale, just pointing out that their styles do not fit. I believe McHale wants Lin to play well but play well according to McHale's definition, which is as it should be and there is nothing wrong with that because he is the coach. But, those of you who have been involved in any kind of teams, be it a project team at work or school, or a sports team, would know that to build a highly functioning working team, "fit" is important both for the teams, coaches and for the players. And the parameters for "fit" include: e.g, personality fit, character fit, style fit, psychological fit, vision/mission fit, and skill fit. Even at work, it's common place to see a person who was a high achiever on his old team, and then completely disappeared in a new team. Why? Wrong fit. You get him out of there and find him a good fit, he gets better but more importantly his previous team also gets better. Everyone is happy. Now it may be a bit simplified the way I just described because nothing is ever as simple as that, but I hope for those who are willing to listen that you get the point.

Let me explain why McHale. A coach determines the kind of bball a team plays and needs to know how to build confidence in his players to play to their best abilities. I've played bball and volley ball my whole life. I would say when you reach a certain level, like the NBA, a player's performance is mostly about confidence and confidencence comes from a sense of trust from the coaches and teammates. As much as I like coach McHale as a person, think he's done a great job this year getting the youngest team to the playoff and believe he will improve and become better as a coach, I am really not sure he and JLin have the right chemistry for each other. I don't see him instilling confidence in JLin but he is with Chandler. And I see that by the kinds of things he's said and more importantly what he has not said about the two players, by the difference in how Chandler and Lin have played this year (they both improved but only one of them played with a green light), and by how different Lin's on court and even off court demeanors have changed since his NY days.

So now shoot me, LOH and LOF.

 

I think Lin played pretty well. Average for what he makes per year.

Morey gets in trouble when he uses words like great, exceptionally well. Cmon...that's just exaggerating.

 

19 among point guards is quite good as almost all the pg's above him are elite pg's. Also, what metric did you use to get to the number 19. Just curious as I also have him in 18-20 rank. Morey must have a different WP formula as Berri's formula is good conceptually be is weak computationally. Berri's formula ranks Denis Rodman with a better wp than Michael Jordan because it overweights rebounds. Morey must have twinked it because of this. I am sure Morey does not use readily available public stats. Who would need him if he did.

 

yea peopel get some crazy idea of what they think is fair production. you gotta look at nba contract. javele mcgee got like 11 mil in free agency last year

 

I guess its use over the word GREAT that is subjective. He could have meant alot of things by using that word, but he left it open for opinion which we all know is going to cause a stir.

Personally, I think overall he performed well as a whole. Had some up and down moments of course, but the overall product at this point in his career was good.

 

Good post up there, and honestly I have kind of gone on the same tangent. The people that hate on Lin have other non basketball reasons for not liking him. Whether its race or religion...period. Either that or they do not know basketball at all.

This was basically lins first year. It would be like if we brought sergio lull over and he played the last 10 games of the season the year before, looked really good... then we started him the next year.

If he put up the stats that lin did. Everyone would say good first year. Got that first year under his belt, and we should see some growth. He got way better towards the end of the year. YAY!

I am telling you right now...there is no doubt... if your not excited about the progression of lin, and what he accomplished this year. You do not know basketball. The last half of the season he was playing in the mid-range of starting PGs. PG is probably the most deep and elite position in the NBA...and it was his FIRST SEASON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Morey knows more then all of us, and has better stats to back it up then we can muster up. So I trust my eyes, and his numbers over the LOH ignos on this forum.

Lowry looked pretty bad (specially long range shooting) in his first year of heavy minutes. Then came back next year with semi-all star play.

Lin has had flashes of brilliance, and this year he added experience to is resume. If he works hard of the summer...I predict top ten level of PG play.

(before you freak out thats only passing up 5-6 guys get a grip)

16-17 ppg , 3.5 reb , 8 assits, 46-48 FG% , 39% 3pt% , 1.8 steals, all that while dropping his Turn over % to a slightly more respectable average.

IF we add Howard. I say 10 assists a game...and every one of those stats could improve. So many good lin passes that ASIK dropped or passes he couldn't make cause we had no real post player. Will be made. So thats something else to consider.

Assist play takes two the guy throwing and the guy catching. 7 assist is pretty good for a guy not have a real PF and a Center with butter fingers.

 

PR 101

Marketing 101

Who is the audience? Houston sports fans who are being communicated with by the leader of the front office of one of the city's major pro sports leagues.

 

It is not stupidity, it would be him failing to honor the terms of the contract he signed after the Rockets gave him substantial accomodations.

I agree, he will never wear the colors and will soon be broke in obscurity and a footnote in history - at his own doing.

DD

 

When DM the GM made the trade for the Artest now known as MWP I hated it despite believing it was a terrific basketball deal. Because I want to win and win with guys I am comfortable supporting, not just because they are 'my guys'.

In general terms these Rox and Rox of the ages (thru so many disappointing finishes) have been the types of guys I just want to support.

Yao, Lin? Their ethnicity is irrelevant. Their performance is. And the two of them have given what they have when they have worn the Rockets' unis. TMac? Transcendant talent but do I believe he always gave his all?

Royce White's drafting was exciting to me. A terrific talent, a renaissance man. Perfect. OK, some issues. Well, the issues have exploded, haven't they? I am still rooting for RW to get it together and do so as a Rocket because I, probably uniquely, think he is a good guy (not an easy one, tho).

So, yes sir, I concur. These are good guys who play hard. That's pretty fine, eh? Go Lin! Go Beard! Go, Chandler, go! Oh!mer!

 

Good point.

Lin's going to be fine. He's shown improvement in almost all areas despite injuries.

Rockets and Lin/Harden need to figure out a way to carve out a niche in the offense where Lin can be his aggressive, scoring self.

I have no doubt this is something they will work on for next season.

 

Morey stated many times that the edge in this business isn't data analysis. There's MBAs, stat geeks, and basketball fanatics all doing this. Durvasa does a great job here, but unfortunately conventional data doesn't give you real insight (or further insight to what is readily available). Garbage in, Garbage out (sorry Durvasa).

The edge is in collecting better data.

So if Morey is collecting different data, it is only reasonable he'll get different results.

As this thread is mostly about Lin, let's see how conventional data on Lin may be misleading and doesn't offer much insight.

I've posted a few times that PGs that play next to ball-dominant SG/SFs take a hit in pretty much all of their conventional stats, from PER, win-share, basic per 36 pts/assists stats etc. It is pretty much the case everywhere, from future HOFs Nash, Payton after joining LAL, Wade after Lebron went to Miami, to role players that can't even get a PER of 12 or even 10 like Derek Fisher, Mario Chalmers or any bunch of role players that played next to Kobe, LBJ, and MJ.

And it is obvious. Because the ball is out of the PGs hands more often, and they get lower utilisation rates as a result. And if the do less, all of the key conventional stats go down.

So Durvasa (and whoever) can plot charts and tables and does excel sorts on PGs or rankings on the Rockets team based on available data, without correcting for this, and it's obvious they won't get good results. No PG that plays next to a ball-dominant SG/SF does. Or at least they take a hit. Eg Wade, Nash, Payton took a hit of about 4 on their PER, and these are HOF players.

And real role players have PERs that range from 8-12, and a PER of around 15 is already very good for a PG when playing next to a ball-dominant SG/SF (like Mo Williams did next to Lebron that led to his contract that is similar to Lin's, or Ron Harper did next to MJ.

Lin has a PER of 15 this season, and probably 16 after the all-star break.

And what did Lin do in Feb to April (34 games)? ~16pt, 6 assists in 32 min or approx 18/7 in 36min. He shot ~45% FG, ~39% 3pt, with about 2.8TOs per 36min, and his rebounds likely went down because McHale publicly said PGs should be out on the break trying to get the ball upcourt as quickly as possible and Lin adjusted to his coach's wishes.

So how bad is 18/7 in 36 min with 45% FG and 39% 3pt shooting? If he did not have a ball-dominant PG next to him, could Lin be 20/8? I think most certainly, and in fact he did even better than that in the 4 games without Harden with 22.6/7.4 per 36min, with the only two losses coming against the LAC (also beat them once) and SAS in OT. Did Lin become less efficient without Harden? 46% overall FG and 57% 3pt FG. My guess Lin's PER in those games would be around 18-20.

So how bad is Lin in that sense?

He adjusted his game to put up 18/7 in 36min next to a ball dominant SG, with 45/39 shooting, and when the star was out with injury, he upped it to 22.6/7.4 in 36min with better shooting efficiency, helping the team go 2-2 with one OT loss to SAS and one loss to LAC. At that stage of the season, the Rockets at had not beaten any of the top 4 teams of OKC, SAS, Denver and LAC, even with a healthy Harden.

In fact we had just lost to SAS with Harden (without Delfino) by 18 just two games before the OT loss without Harden, and we were 0-1 against the Clippers with a healthy Harden.

And people say Linsanity is low sample size fluke, but Lin is basically putting up his 25 game NY stats from Feb to Apr (adjusting for some lower utilisation rates next to Harden), so it's a sample size of around 60 games now.

I don't see how that 60 game stretch where he was healthy does not rank him at least as an average starting PG in this league (even Feb-Apr this year of 18/7 per 36 with 44/38 shooting already does) and how Lin doesn't earn his contract.


And let me preface this before I go on. I really like Patrick Beverley, he's a great energy player, a great "back-up" PG, and above average defensive player. But if you look at his 41 game sample (which is not much different to Lin's Feb to Apr sample of 34 games), he averaged 11.6pts/6assists per 36min (and his assists were lower quality assists leading to less efficient shots than Lin), shooting 37.5% from 3s and 42% overall. None of this is better than Lin's numbers from Feb to Apr, or even if you want to use the same 41 game stretch on Lin. And he plays more time against bench players (as a percentage of his minutes), as well as more time without Harden on the court.

How did Beverley do in the 3 games Harden was out (after Beverley was signed)? Averaged 10.7/4 per 36min and 33% overall FG and 43% 3ptFG. How is this better than Lin's 22/7, 46/57? It is NOT a knock on Beverley. He did a good job as a back-up. But to say Beverley is better than Lin? Or that Lin's starting job is at risk? Coachbadlee-level laughable.

The reality is, Lin could easily be doing 18/8 per 36min with higher utilisation, and it doesn't look like that bump up (ie 1-2 more points and 1 assist) will do a lot of harm to his efficiency, which is already easily above average starting PG levels in Feb to Apr, and 18/8 is near all-star levels, and near-all-stars get paid more than $8M/yr.


Now before I become labelled a 2006er LOF (again) ... I quite like Beverley and I would absolute love Harden if he played just average D and didn't go iso-ball as frequently, or if he just played like he did in the first half of the season with better defense. But I do think Harden will be more efficient and probably score just as many points if Lin played PG more, and the team would be even more successful and balanced (and difficult to guard), as we saw frequently in the blow-out games when Lin played PG more. The last sentence, I know, will get me labelled a LOF, but it is actually wanting the best for the Rockets.

So back to the original topic. I don't doubt at all Lin was #3 on the Rockets in win-share according to Morey.

And if you analyzed the data WITH CONTEXT, or was able to get better data, I doubt you'd come up with a different conclusion.

Sorry Durvasa, not meaning to pick on you. You do a great job with the analysis, and none of us has Morey's or any proprietary data. GIGO is better than the >50% of posters here which are Garbage in -> Hit Bias or Empty Space -> Toxic Waste Out.

 

Morey has his reputation on the line. If he says Lin is very good in public and if he mentions stats in public he better be right or it will come back to bite him. Nobody likes their mistakes known, so he is sure that Lin will work out well. I am sure Morey wants his job.

 

If young balls are not injured, they improve with experience and practice. It basic physiology. All our young players will improve. That's why Morey gets young players. He gets them at a lower price as well. He didn't keep Dragic because Dragic wanted 10Million a year and he got it from the Suns. That's what I heard his salary is , but you might want to check it.

 

Sorry thats ballers not balls. No humor was intended.

 

Glad to. Give me some time.

 

Why do LOFs always use stats and sound so intelligent and reasonable in their posts?

It's really not fair. The LOFs should come down to the level of LOHs and cherry pick stats, make childish arguments, and just keep repeating them over and over again. At least this way, we can have a fair fight.

Now, let's start again with those playoff + / - stats...

And by the way...
Beverley > Lin

If you don't believe me, your just a pathetic LOF so none of your arguments count.
You're not a real rocket fan, you're only here because of Lin.
Heck, you probably like soccer too.
GTFO and let us pre-2012 real rocket fans hate on Lin GEEZUS!