CP3 May not resign [Bill Simmons tweet so grain of salt needed]

Which rebuilding team with plenty of cap space did you have in mind?

Wizards already have Wall and NeNe under contract, they have no need for either
Phonix already have Gragic and Gortat, they have no need for either as well
Cavs have Irving and Varejao, no need as well
Bobcats already have Kemba, and with or without Asik they are still terrible so they are probably more interested in developing Biyombo.
Pistons have Monroe and Stuckey
Orlando is in full blown rebuild, adding a 8.3 mil contract for a couple more win is the last thing they want to do. They also already have Vuvevic.
Raptors already have klow and Jonas.


Dallas, Atlanta, Portland etc will not even consider them until the big name FAs are settle since they are in the hunt themselves.

 

The Raptors had Calderon under contract a year ago. They still went after Kyle Lowry, a lateral move, even at the price of a lottery pick. If teams see value they can add for cheap, they'll do it.

 

The point to backloading is to make a restricted free agent's original team less likely to match, since the cap hit wouldn't be averaged for them and could lead to substantial tax penalties.

As for coming up with a trade, pretty much pick a team with cap room, and swap Asik or Lin for a draft pick. I think both would fetch a (protected) first, but worst case, a second. With Asik in particular, if you don't think a 26-year-old double-double big man with fantastic defense, making $8 mil/year for 2 years, could draw a second-round pick, you're on crack and need to go take your meds. His contract is fantastic and one of the bigger bargains in the entire NBA.

 

It wasn't a lateral move when they made it. Klow was coming of a very good season th clearly saw it as an upgrade. Oh I forgot about the Rudy gay trade so they are already over the cap so they are not even a candidate.

 

Huh? Lowry averaged 14.3/6.6/4.6 in Houston on 40% shooting. That's not "very good". That's mediocre as far as starting PGs go, when they already had a mediocre PG under contract. And not only did Toronto just take him -- they gave up a lottery pick for him!!!

Wasn't saying the Raptors or any specific team are the candidate. That's above my paygrade. Just pointing out that there's tons of precedent for teams trading future picks for talented young players in their mid-20s, even at above-MLE contracts and at positions in which they already have a player. Teams generally take the value and figure out the "fit" later.

 

Thanks for the info on the backload.

The user above made a great post actually looking at teams with capspace. I just don't see those contracts as movable unless bundled, maybe with Parsons. Lin is not a good contract. Asik may be but he's not exactly the tyoe of piece a rebuilding team wants at that price. Usually those teams go young or go for marquee talent. Asik is a guy a playoff team wants to put them over the top.

 

The main factor is that for a rebuilding team, everything comes down to value. It doesn't matter if Asik is a center and they have Nene or whoever under contract. If the value of Asik is greater than the value of the cap space + a second-round pick (and I think it clearly is, especially for a team that isn't in contention for top free agents), then they're going to do the deal. If nothing else, they can turn around and trade Asik or Nene down the line for more than they could have the second-round pick.

When you're a rebuilding club, you don't have the luxury of saying "well, I'm set at center, so I'm only looking at positions X, Y and Z". You have to take value wherever it comes. For a team without a lot going for it, getting Asik at that contract is a terrific value. Even if they have to wait a few months to cash in, it's a gamble they're going to take.

 

So propose a trade.

 

I already have. Asik to [insert team here with cap space] for a future pick. Same for Lin. Whoever bids the highest gets them. I don't know who that will be; if I did, I'd be Daryl Morey.

 

Ehh that's a bit of a cop out. Surely you must have some ideas. I just don't see any team with cap space willing to do this, because they are either in full rebuild or trying to land a big name free agent themselves. That's why I wanted to see a specific example to see if there's some possibility I missed.

 

If they're in a full rebuild, it makes perfect sense. That's the entire point. It's why the Rockets kept drafting PFs the last three years, even as fans b****ed "OMG NOT ANOTHER PF". All that matters is value. If you're a full-rebuilding team and you haven't gotten free agents to bite on your cap room, Omer Asik at $8 million/year for 2 years will probably get you more net value down the line than a second-round pick. So you do the deal.

 

Dude your an idiot .... Asik makes less than 90% of starting centers and is one of the best defensive players in league and this was his first year with significant minutes!!! I feel like I am talking to a r****d that can't process basic information.

Lin is perfect for rebuilding team cause he makes the average for start pg, he is young with upside but more then anything he will prob single handedly turn a team from losing money to being profitable ... I doubt there is ten teams that wouldn't do whatever to get these guys.

I am not arguing this ... I've read reports all year how asik is one if the most coveted assets. Lin even more so... You saying that is basically you saying that you know nothing outside of clipper basketball ... My 12 year old nephew is more educated then you.

So 50% of your logic for why is a pipe dream is ignorant. The first them taking less money ... Both will consider this... And it's not as much as people think and it's ONLY more money if they decline fbd can't get another big contract.

With Texas having no state income tax on their salary and endorsements the actually make more money here they just aren't guaranteed the 5th year.

So that is the only issue...but if lebron and wade did it both cp3 and Howard may.

 

OK guys, you win. All aboard the Harden/Howard/Paul train! This is definitely gonna happen so I'm ready!

And "your an idiot" is unintentionally funny but you probably don't see why.

 

You also are not counting the teams that just want to be relevant.

Every year we see a team disregard what they have left of cap space and just hope to be relevant by adding proven players over younger guys.

Raptors perfect example of this. They strive to simply be relevant and when the Nets made the moves they did they did the same thing.

Asik will be easy to unload if Morey wants to. Again a top 5 rebounder, great defense. He's a bargain at his price.

We can admit that Lin will be tougher...but consider that there were teams going after Joe Johnson and his terrible contract. Lin's contract is only two years...that's nearly not as bad especially for a player with upside.

A team like the Pistons could use another guard...Lin is better than every PG Utah has and that is a big need for them.

The other guys like the rookies are young guys, there will be teams that liked those guys from draft day and would like to give them a chance on their team.

The other vets...Brooks, Garcia, Delfino...team options.

Parsons with his pathetic contract does not have to be moved, but if Morey has to pair Parsons+Lin to get Howard&Paul he does it I am sure.

 

Asik+2016 first round pick is something that Cleveland, Philly, and the Hawks would consider. I think Utah takes Lin +2014 first round +Phoenix 2nd round.

 

Cleveland already has Varejao who is a better version of Asik. Now way do they pay two guys big contracts to play the same role. Philly is presumably going to try to sign Bynum. i don't see why they woud have interest in Asik at that price since they are treading water and need to rebuild if they don't land a star. The Hawks are trying to clean house to make a run at any number of the big free agents. They woukdn't sign a role player until after these decisions are made. Utah is in the same boat with all their contracts coming off the books this offseason.

 

I'll engage you on this since you're not going to be a rox homer on this issue and I'd like to get a different perspective:

So to your first point, I think they'd be taking less GUARANTEED money. Not necessarily less money. The risk in not taking the guaranteed money is after 4 years they might not get max money any longer. So the decision point for max FA's is whether putting that last year max money at risk is worth going into a situation of a dominate big 3. Would you say that risk is too great for any max FA to take or that the upside of a big three tandem isn't great enough to warrant the risk?

On your second point, there are about 13 teams with cap space. Of these team do you think any of them (or none of them) would be in the market for a starting center or a point guard?

I think Asik or Lin could net:
- best case scenario a 1st
- Okay case a 2nd
- Worst case nothing
- If for some reason you had to the rox could send their own pick in order to offload these contracts.

Do you think moving Asik or Lin would require more than any of the above scenarios?

 

Cleveland is constantly trying to trade Varejao and if he had not got hurt he probably would have been. They might re-sign Bynum but getting Asik and a future first is a much safer move for them. If the Hawks don't get Howard or CP3 there isn't a free agent out there that will be as cheap and effective as Asik. Most importantly, the Rockets only need one of those teams to bite. Of course there are reasons for all three not to do the deal but there are also reasons for them to do it.

Utah is going to have about $35MM in cap space and they have no pg. The $8MM they give Lin isn't going to stop them from making other big moves. Lin would make them more marketable and they would get two picks out of the deal. It's a very low risk move for them and it would only be for two years if Lin crashes and burns.

I'm not saying any of those deals happen but they are deals that the teams would think about and are examples of possible trades for two players that you believe it would be so hard for the Rockets to get rid of.

 

First off, Asik is a perfect insurance policy for Bynum. If you're going to sign Mr. Glass Knees, you better not be expecting 35 minutes or more for 82 games. More importantly, though, you're still missing the point. If you're in the shoes of say, Cleveland, it doesn't matter if you already have Varejao. Rebuilding a team is much more complex than that. If you see value, you take it. If you can land Asik for a bargain-basement price, you do it. Maybe you can flip him for more later, or maybe you can instead deal Varejao for something. Rebuilding a basketball team is about assets, and if what's coming in (Asik) is more valuable than what's going out (cap space, second-round pick), you do it in a heartbeat and worry about the "fit" later.

 

Varejao is better than Asik? One Varejao hardly ever plays and have you seen Asik ever play? He's been pretty much the 2nd best player on this team and oh yeah Asik also has had more rebounds than anyone else in the NBA the past year. Oh yeah...Vareajao is 30, will be 31 when the next season starts and with his injury history if Cleveland plan is to stick with him then that just goes to show you why they are Cleveland.

Maybe Cleveland does not take him but there are going to be teams lining up to take him.

As for Lin, Utah was just a example. Utah has cap space but there has been no hints of anyone actually wanting to go there and that's always the case with Utah. If they want a pretty solid PG with Upside Lin is a good option and his contract again is only two years. It's not that big of a risk.

One year and then he becomes a big expiring and teams love expiring contracts. These guys are far from impossible of moving.