1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Free Agency: Boom or Bust(realistic scenario)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by trugoy, May 4, 2013.

  1. The Cat

    The Cat Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2000
    Messages:
    20,808
    Likes Received:
    5,282
    That's exactly what folks said about LeBron and the Knicks/Bulls, circa early 2010.
     
  2. langal

    langal Member

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2004
    Messages:
    3,824
    Likes Received:
    91
    That 115 in LA is an extra year too. I think it comes down to 23.6 vs 22 per year. So he would net more $$ in Houston.

    LA has more endorsement opportunities but if Lin stays then Howard could land more Asian exposure.
     
  3. Fair Dinkum

    Fair Dinkum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2013
    Messages:
    2,003
    Likes Received:
    70
    True... more money through an extra year.

    Howard:
    Lakers 5 years 108m (player option after 4)
    Rockets 4 years 88m (player option after 3)

    Dwight has made a lot of money already to be secure (Harden hasn't), Dwight wants a ring and Houston offers him that opportunity. Plus, if he thinks he is any good, he could get a new and bigger max contract after 3 years at Houston.
     
  4. trugoy

    trugoy Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    1,383
    Likes Received:
    139
    Actually Miami gave up the 5th pick in the 2011 draft lottery as part of the Chris Bosh sign and trade.

    Lebron Sign and Trade was 2 second round picks and 2 first round picks and the right to swap first round picks.

    Next to nothing? They pretty much gave up all the draft picks they had.

    You would like to believe that Lebron and Bosh committed without fully understanding the draft assets that Miami had that would make it a certainty that their teams would do a sign and trade?
     
  5. LCAhmed

    LCAhmed Member

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2009
    Messages:
    11,034
    Likes Received:
    1,632
    I'd really want an offensive presence down low. Dwight Howard is only a little bit better than Asik on offense (lobs, hook shot) but is not a legit back to basket center. I'd rather get someone who can put the ball in the basket like Cousins, Brook Lopez, heck even Al Jefferson. Jefferson seams to be the only obtainable one of my choices though.
     
  6. The Cat

    The Cat Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2000
    Messages:
    20,808
    Likes Received:
    5,282
    The other big difference between these situations and the Harden situation is that Harden wasn't proven at the time he had to make his decision. For all the hype, the most points he had ever averaged in a season were 16.8. He came off the bench. For all he knew, these negotiations were his only chance for a big contract. That's why every year meant something.

    Dwight and CP3 have been top 5 players their entire careers. They've been All-Star starters year after year. They're the elite of the elite, and they know it. The odds of them getting another max deal in four years (when they're 31) are 99.999%. They know that, too.

    It's not that the extra year is insignificant -- certainly, it's a factor and will be considered. But it's not as vital to them as it is for a guy like Harden in October 2012.
     
  7. trugoy

    trugoy Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    1,383
    Likes Received:
    139
    Bigger raises every year, plus Dwight just had back surgery and played an entire year injured.

    I think the only way he moves is if he is pretty convinced he can win a championship IMMEDIATELY, otherwise he is going to take the money.
     
  8. trugoy

    trugoy Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    1,383
    Likes Received:
    139
    Dwight just had back surgery and played an entire year injured.

    Chris Paul had one of his lateral meniscus removed via surgery in 2010, aka knee surgery to REMOVE his meniscus rather than repair it.

    Both these players have injury history and it will play a part in determining the importance of that extra year.
     
  9. rubbertoe

    rubbertoe Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2013
    Messages:
    277
    Likes Received:
    9

    If I'm not mistaken, each city/state they play in is how they charge for taxes. Technically each game is a pay check because you are working and in a different city/state. So at worst half of your games are state tax free
     
  10. The Cat

    The Cat Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2000
    Messages:
    20,808
    Likes Received:
    5,282
    My fault, I didn't remember the terms of the Bosh deal correctly. But again, he's not a top 5 player. He's closer to the Josh Smith tier than LeBron/CP3/Dwight. That contract was enormous to Bosh's career.

    The deal WAS crap for LeBron. Cleveland swore they wouldn't do a S&T, and the fact that it's 2 firsts and 2 seconds is irrelevant considering the picks they got. It doesn't matter that it's "all they had" -- it's still terrible value, and LeBron knew it. He didn't care.
     
  11. Fair Dinkum

    Fair Dinkum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2013
    Messages:
    2,003
    Likes Received:
    70
    Yes, and his endorsements and sponsorships are also tax free and Lin may possibly open up some Chinese lucrative Chinese shoe deals for him, they have a few billion people in Asia.

    I was reading the Lakers forum and some accountant had worked out that the Lakers deal was only worth $8m more than the Rockets when Tax was considered.
     
  12. The Cat

    The Cat Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2000
    Messages:
    20,808
    Likes Received:
    5,282
    Yes, and Dwight's production was extremely compromised for the first few months. It was the worst year of his career. And he's still a max guy and there's not even a debate. That's how good he is. Even the watered-down, post-back-surgery Dwight we saw for much of this year is hands down a max guy. That's where there's very little risk for him.
     
  13. pmac

    pmac Member

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    8,397
    Likes Received:
    3,259
    trugoy,

    The big problem with your scenario is that either Paul/Howard would have to commit to sign with the rockets for half their salary hoping the rockets can make all the necessary moves to accommodate them (and still make a reasonable sacrifice after that, to fill out the roster) or the rockets would have to dump all of their players hoping that Paul/Howard come to them.

    Most teams could devise a plan to accomplish this same goal. The miami heat team was unique because Lebron/Bosh could sign with the Heat outright with minimal team transactions.
     
  14. meh

    meh Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2002
    Messages:
    16,161
    Likes Received:
    3,361
    There are only two realistic scenarios in the offseason for the Rockets. Neither CP3/Howard signs, or Howard signs. Signing CP3 alone would be semi-realistic, but a distant 3rd.

    The odds that both come is very small. The fact that the Rockets signed Lin and Asik last offseason made sure of that.
     
  15. trugoy

    trugoy Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    1,383
    Likes Received:
    139
    If he hurts his back again? is anyone going to pay $25mil a year for a 31 year old Dwight with 2 back surgeries? The risks are greater than you think.
     
  16. Fair Dinkum

    Fair Dinkum Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2013
    Messages:
    2,003
    Likes Received:
    70
    If Clippers resign CP3, they're done, they will be at the cap limit or just over leaving them no flexibility to acquire or upgrade talent. Considering they got booted in the first round, Paul might be thinking... I can't get it done with these guys, I'm gonna join Dwight and the Beard in H-Town and go for that ring!
     
  17. Raven

    Raven Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2002
    Messages:
    14,984
    Likes Received:
    1,025
    Dwight isn't going anywhere. He can always force a trade if he changes his mind. In the meantime, glamor, glamor, glamor.

    Same with Chris Paul.
     
  18. ILoveTheRockets

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,047
    Likes Received:
    62
    Can we 3D print Hakeem and just be done with all the nonsense. geez.
     
  19. trugoy

    trugoy Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    1,383
    Likes Received:
    139
    Not really, the rockets will have lined up all the neccessary trades up beforehand and it is a matter of just announcing it.

    Just like free agency, where deals are announced and only executed sometimes several weeks later.
     
  20. novaman

    novaman Member

    Joined:
    Jul 22, 2012
    Messages:
    941
    Likes Received:
    19
    ^^^^^ this is it. ^^^^^^
     

Share This Page