I've been crunching some numbers on the Rockets salary situation and I believe there is a realistic chance of a Harden, Howard, Paul, super team forming in Houston, but a greater likelihood of NO free agents coming. Any free agent coming to Houston is going to have to sacrifice salary. The ONLY reason a max free agent would sacrifice salary is if the situation is SO GOOD that the HIGH likelihood of championships/endorsement would make up for the loss of earning power. So I believe that it is either BOTH Dwight Howard AND Chris Paul are coming to Houston or neither of them will come. If both of them come, we would have to do the following; Waive Delfino, Garcia, Brooks, Olbrecht, Anderson Trade Asik, Lin, White, Robinson, Smith for space and picks and take no salary back. I believe we will have to also trade for space one of either Jones or Motiejunas depending on which one we like better. The only players we can keep are Parsons, Beverly and one of Jones or Motiejunas. Given that there is NO advantages to doing a sign and trade with teams under the new CBA, i.e. no additional money or years. The strategy should not be to sign and trade for Howard or Paul but to sign them outright and to trade our remaining pieces for picks and space so we can restock quickly. The roster will be Howard Jones or Motiejunas Parsons Harden Paul Beverly The rest of the roster will have to be restocked via minimum salary contracts. I believe this is the only realistic scenario, I don't see ONE of Howard or Paul joining the Rockets to give up money, either both will join or NONE will join.
Don't see anyone taking a paycut unless the situation is better than what Miami has. i.e. Championship favourites, national TV all the time, etc...
A max offer from Houston is not that much of a pay cut since Texas has no state income tax. Plus if you are Dwight Howard, do you want to play with a 23 year old superstar in James Harden or Pau Gasol, 35 year old Kobe, and 40 year old Nash.
Actually this has been discussed on numerous other threads. You are right so far as... 1) your assumptions on sign and trade. It is impossible to do this under the new CBA rules for Dwight and Paul. 2) It is possible to get both Dwight and Paul but requires blowing up the roster, most difficult part being trading Lin, Asik, T-Rob and others for picks and no salary back. 3) Don't understand why you say its both Dwight and Paul or neither. It a possibility that just Dwight comes and we trade Asik for a PF like J.Smith, or get a mid-level PF like Milsap.
NBA players don't think that way. Otherwise Harden wouldn't be a Rocket. Money is always THE most important thing. Unless other circumstances are overwhelming.
Dwight will not come unless the situation is like MIAMI, meaning the rockets become a championship favourite IMMEDIATELY. He will be taking less money and less years, the only way he does that is if Houston has a big 3 that is arguably better than Miami's big 3.
I'm not denying the factor money plays. But Houston is in a unique position since our state has no income tax. 115 million in LA compared to 88 million here is much less than a 27 million dollar gap.
This argument gets used all the time but no one can point to one example of the tax being a factor in a single player's decision. Harden was so determined to make every penny that he was willing to leave championship contender OKC and go to a potential top 5 worst team in the league in Houston.
Well money becomes the most important thing unless you already got so much of it, then legacy can become more important. Both Dwight and Paul have had Mega huge contracts and are loaded. They are in their prime and would probably desire a championship ring more than an extra year at $20m. Didn't the Miami big 3 show this? Harden on the other hand was coming off his rookie contract and hadn't made the big bucks yet so his first max contract is very important for him to secure his financial future.
No one is going to say, I signed with a team that offered me less money because there's no state income tax. But these multi million dollar athletes have financial advisers on top of their agents. They know the deal. Plus, Dwight is clearly unhappy in LA.
Actually, Both Lebron and Bosh had their extra year because both were sign and trades, due to the old CBA. And yes it was really important to both of them because Miami gave up multiple first round draft picks to do those sign and trades with Cleveland and Toronto, you would think that if winning was important to them, they would've taken less money and allowed Miami to keep those first round picks.
So find an example of where a player left a team for less money in a state where there was no income tax without using the super team up situation in Miami.
Neither guy has to take a pay cut if they want to come here. Morey would clear out the cap and sign them.
Houston cannot legally pay either of these guys the same amount of money that the Lakers and Clippers can pay them. Regardless of cap space. The CBA is designed so that the team with bird rights can pay free agents MORE money.
Truth be told, I think Dwight is staying in LA, with Kobe possibly retiring in the next couple of seasons, and the extra 30 million, there are just way to many incentives to stay in LA. Same for Chris Paul.
Both LeBron and Bosh committed to the Heat without any knowledge of a S&T. The first round draft picks were and are irrelevant, and Miami knew it. There's a case to be made that picks in the late 20s actually have negative value, given the very low likelihood of success combined with the guaranteed contracts. Besides that, LeBron and Bosh knew the Miami roster would be filled out with ring-chasing, battle-tested veterans (Miller, Allen, Lewis, Howard, etc.), not green rookies. Now, all things being equal, would they take the extra year? Of course. Cleveland and Toronto were willing to do trades at the last minute because they'd get something rather than nothing. And the cost to Miami (a few #29 picks) was next to nothing, so they may as well give LeBron/Bosh the perk. But it absolutely did not drive the decision. LeBron and Bosh were more than willing to go to Miami without the extra year, and each committed without that knowledge.
Just some insight ~ If CP3 ever does leave the Clips, it will be to play at Madison Square Garden, or to wear the purple and gold of Showtime. This is the "only realistic scenario"
