Totally agree. And it worked better than it most likely should have because of Harden jacking up that long 3.
Can they foul Asik out of bounds and does that change any of the rules regarding shooting free throws?
doesn't make a difference. only when the time is below 2:00 when it's ft's and ball if you foul the player without the ball
It was good strategy...you guys aren't differentiating between Omer's FT% at home vs on the road...for some reason, he is abysmal on the road shooting 47.8%!!! This would translate to a 95.6 Offensive Efficiency. And it doesn't matter what our offensive efficiency is, it only matters what OKC's is. OKC has a 110.2 offensive efficiency!! This means, that for every 100 possessions OKC employs hack-an-Asik, they will outscore us by 14.6 points! Now, I don't agree with sticking with this strategy once it was evident that Asik's form looked good, and that he had the eye of the tiger.
true but to counter act that, that was when they were full strength with WB also, and it's pretty evident they aren't producing 110.2 off eff without him
To revise my previous calculationa, it would be fair to see what Omer's FT% is on the road with at least 1 day's worth of rest. I'm pretty sure all those back-back road games killed his FT% due to fatigue. I hope that OKC's analytics people factored this into their calculations.
Good points. 47.8% is good enough to make it probably a good, but very marginal strategy. And similar to what you alluded to, how much better does Asik do in practice when he is shooting a ton of free throws with simulated crowd noise, etc.? I bet it's higher than 47.8%. I would love to hear Morey's analysis of the Hack-Asik.
Hmm, very true...but I still think it was a positive EV move, until you saw with your own eyes that Asik was nailing those sukkers
What is OKC's offensive efficiency in the halfcourt set without Westbrook? Remember, this team scores a bunch of points in transition. You have no transition opportunity off of the free throw line.
Per synergy, OKC scores 1.21PPP on transition plays, and .99PPP overall. Transition plays comprise 14.1% of their total plays, so the rest of their plays only produce .953PPP, which is still excellent, but like you said, w/o Westbrook, and also the fact that Asik likely shoots a higher FT% when rested, even on the road, and when he has more consecutive attempts, he gets into a better rhythm, it may not be positive EV at this point.
Oh shoot, but then you have to also take into account our half court defensive efficiency, the probability of them getting 2nd-3rd possessions (off offensive rebounds, out of bounds, etc) and a whole bunch of different variables.
Hack-a-Asik started at the 5:37 mark, with the Thunder down 10. Suppose they elected to play it straight instead, and played solid D. If they hold us to a 95 Ortg, and we expect to get 6.8 possessions in the next 3 1/2 minutes (a 90 poss/48min rate), then that means its an additional 6.5 points for them to make up. With a strategy of fouling Asik, the main thing is the Thunder get more possessions. We got 6 possessions during their 2 minute-run of Hack-a-Asik. If we extend that rate to 3 1/2 minutes, that means we would have gotten about 10.5 possessions. Supposing Asik hits 50% of his free throws, that means they'd have to make up an additional 10.5 points. So, we're talking about 4 extra points the Thunder would have to make up, but also that they'd get about extra 3.7 possessions to do so. So, overall, I think the strategy is a wash. If the Thunder get hot and Asik crumbles under the pressure, its can quickly turn things around. But I don't think it necessarily gave either team an advantage.
In case this hasn't been put up here yet, here's one person's opinion on it. http://pointsperpossession.com/component/content/article/123-robert-eckstut
Bad gamble by Scottie. He thought they'd be able to score at will, but he just threw off Jackson (who was heatin up behind the 3)'s rhythm. Asik FT's > OKC Offense - HOU Defense
You lose more than you gain. I think it sends a message to your team that they don't have what it takes to come back from a small double-digit deficit at home. It has to affect them mentally, especially doing it in their home arena. Whatever few points you gain are lost b/c I think players are not going to be as energetic and it will affect their offense.
I love that they tried it and big O came through, I think it will do his confidence the world of good
I don't care what type of numbers you throw up, you DON'T do it to a high-energy team like the Thunder AT HOME. It has a direct effect on their energy and thus scoring capability.
What if they played solid D like they did outside of the Asik hacking? I think we averaged .53 PPP (edit...in the 4th quarter) when they weren't Asik hacking.
