http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/11/budget-deficit-is-shrinking/ April 11, 2013, 11:03 AM Budget Deficit Is Shrinking – a Lot By David Wessel The federal budget deficit: It’s shrinking. Lost in the chatter about President Barack Obama’s behind-schedule delivery of his annual budget was this word from the U.S. Treasury: The federal deficit for the first six months of the fiscal year (October 2012-March 2013) was $600 billion, a whole lot less than the $779 billion recorded for the same months of the previous year. Revenues are running 12.5% ahead of last year; outlays are running 2.5% below last year. What’s going on? The economy is getting better, and that means more wages and profits to tax and less spending on programs such as unemployment compensation. Meanwhile, Congress and the president have raised taxes — both income and payroll taxes — and put some caps on spending. “The deficit,” economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients, “is likely to decline substantially further in the next two to three years… Sequestration has barely started to show up in the outlay data, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts for high-income earners is likely to reduce tax refunds and boost [tax payments] in early 2014.” Although inflation-adjusted growth has been a sluggish 2% to 2.5% since the recession official ended in mid-2009, the Goldman economists noted, “this has been enough to generate a sizeable improvement in tax receipts, over and above the more recent impact of higher tax rates.” Indeed, the Obama White House worries that the deficit is — brace yourself — coming down too fast. Its budget is seeking to slow the shrinking a bit to avoid putting the fiscal brakes on a still slow-growing economy. The Federal Reserve seems to share that concern. The latest minutes of the Fed’s policy committee, released Wednesday, report that Fed policymakers around the table “thought that fiscal policy was exerting significant near-term restraint on the economy” The Fed staff economic forecast, the minutes said, sees “somewhat more fiscal policy restraint” than contemplated, which was offset by a brighter outlook for domestic energy production and rising stock and house prices, which are making Americans wealthier and, thus, more willing to spend. The staff cautioned that the risks to the economy are on the downside for two reasons: Europe (no surprise there) and “the possibility of a more severe tightening of fiscal policy.” Goldman economists, though, see the world a bit differently. As the U.S. economy perks up and the reported budget deficits shrink, there will be less pressure on Washington for fiscal belt-tightening. As a result, what economists call “the fiscal drag” on the economy (the negative effect of higher taxes and lower spending) will ease in the coming years. For that reason, Goldman sees the pace of growth quickening from an annual rate of about 2% today to between 3% and 3.5% in 2014.
11/19/12 This was during the first bounce in AAPL to 600. After breaking 400 today, there is nothing but air between here and 325. This has been one of the easiest shorts I have ever been in, once it topped out that is. Then again, this was/is one of the biggest bubbles since the dot com days.
I've been with APPL since the stock was at 80 per share. I unloaded a portion when it fell to $500, but I now want to sell another portion. I imagine there will be a bump tomorrow. Do you think tomorrow will be a nice selling point or do you see it tracing back up to $440-$450 range?
I believe it is headed to 325 minimum first, before a significant bounce, and then break back down. So it is a nice sell point anywhere around here. Do I see it bouncing to 450 first? Not really. But is that out of the realm of possibility? Anything can happen, but personally, not worth the risk to find out. I would sell a close below 400. BTW congrat on buying it at 80, nice trade.
Thanks for the advice. What do you guys think about investing in Mike Merrill? :grin: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/sell-yourself-10-000-135455858.html
I don't see any reason to own AAPL. The chart looks horrible and the stock is not well liked and still overly owned. The only thing they can do to cause a significant bump in the stock would be to announce that they are repatriating their cash and initiating a massive stock buyback........but......that isn't going to happen based on how unresponsive the company has been. I don't like selling the stock at this prior breakout level from Dec 2011, but I think you need to just start getting yourself out of it. I do think a lot is priced in to the downside leading up to earnings next week, but the bottom line is that the stock is flat out weak as hell and people will use any strength in the stock to sell it. Also, they have no real game changing products or catalysts on the horizon. Lastly, I will say it is just a hard spot to make an absolute decision by holding to this point because downside is still significant, but limited with strong support at 350, but there no upside catalyst outside of the fact that it is down and that they have a lot of cash. That's just my quick summary of my thoughts on this. Sorry for the ****ty grammar and run on sentences.
Thanks. They really look like the next Microsoft in that they are satisfied with what they got and are no longer looking to innovate. Now paying out dividends reflects this imo. As stated in my earlier post I sold 1/3 at $500 and had an order in to sell another 1/3 if it made it back to $450, but like you all said it doesn't look like that will happen. I don't think I'll sell everything though. I would love to see the market tank and get in on Google. Google Glass and Google Fiber is the type of stuff Apple used to do.
Good speech...I didn't know anything about him prior to this post. He seems like a more mainstream Ron Paul type of politician. Is that a decent assessment?
i also didn't know anything about him a few minutes before posting it (someone had sent me the video)......but everything he said is quite accurate
If we can hold 1534 on the week in the /es this thing probably continues higher. If not it might be time to short everything and the kitchen sink. IMO.
Wow NFLX is just amazing...Up 25% after hours from earnings to $217. I can't really think of a non-biotech, non-buyout related stock chart that has looked that crazy.
I remember thinking a few months ago I wouldn't touch that with someone else's money. Shows you what I know.
