Break down in both energies and metals signal global depression to come. Stock market hasn't caught on to it yet, but it will.
Are you currently short the market? You seem very sure it is going down big time, not saying you are right or wrong, just curious...
The stock market is still in the process of blowing itself out. I said earlier in the thread that I would post when I get short, and haven't yet. Well, I am short and long everyday as a trader, but no I have not gotten short for the long run yet. The topping process will take weeks and much backing and filling, so plenty of opportunities to sell.
If the Suntech bankruptcy plus falling oil prices equal a coming Chinese recession, does that mean US stock prices go higher or lower? Does it mean they should go higher or lower?
Global deflationary spiral? Doesn't really matter what you want to call it. Of course this is not something obvious, other wise everyone would have sold their AAPL above 700 despite their cash pile. Finally shorted the indices today for the long haul. Target around 600 in the S&P. When it gets below 1000, it will be obvious to you how there is a depression coming, just like it is obvious now why AAPL is going down. Of course that information is worthless now.
Central banks around the world are racing against eachother to print as much money as possible. Why do you think that is? Because things are all peachy? Of course not, they are doing this to prop up economies on the verges of collapse. We have known this, that was what QE was all about. That's what the Japanese are doing. Gold/metals/energies are telling you right now that the global money printing scheme has failed. There are larger forces at work here, even more powerful than the Fed, ECB, and BOJ: changing global demographics, the end of a spending cycle that lasted 50 years. This will not end well.
Short S&P, target 600. Short Russell, target 350. Holding period, 3 years. Taking profit along the way of course.
Didn't you have this strong bear conviction back when the SPY was at 110 also? I think you were calling for 600 back then too. I have no idea what AAPL has to do with this. I bailed on the idea of AAPL as a potential long term investment somewhere in the 500's. I think I posted that on here if it really matters that much. AAPL being a broken company has nothing to do with you stating that almost ALL American companies are broken with those absurd price targets. FWIW the Fed has been signaling that they might begin to slow down QE. Japan is an extremely unique situation and you know this. I guess the bottom line is that I don't see the American economy collapsing like you do. You are acting as if American finance and business didn't adjust at all during the prior recession...clearly it has. Plus, housing has stabilized over large portions of America. Further, innovation and technology development is occurring at a faster and more widespread pace than ever. I dunno...I guess I am optimistic after the great recession we had. You and I both know there are much better ways to profit from a trade like that. If you are going to have completely absurd targets then you are better off buying long dated out of the money puts or put spreads. Or you can look to buy the long dated puts (which aren't that expensive for your Armageddon trade) and sell shorter expiration out of the money calls to minimize the cost of your puts. I think you can buy Dec 2015 140 puts for 15.00. You could then sell the Dec 2015 175 calls for 8.00. Then you could look to sell the April 2013 156.50 calls that expire this week for 1.00. You are already looking to get short so why not collect some premium. I dunno that trade structure or something along those lines would seem to be a much higher reward setup with less capital used (you could remove the short Dec '15 175 calls to minimze capital usage) if you are looking so long term. It's not like you have to hold the options to expiration either. You can take profits and trade out of them.
robbie the writing's on the wall and he's pretty much right.....the party's over...and the spiral is near....only question now is which domino falls first (japan, europe, etc.) in other news...boston marathon smh
I was calling for 900 I believe on that move when I shorted the exact top tick of the bounce at 1230 and you were asking how I did that like a kid at a magic show. The move only lasted to 1070, not 900, unfortunately, only nearly 160 S&P points. What it has to do with AAPL is that you, like most people, sheep, can see only what is immediately in front of you. This is how you justified AAPL holding up despite all the reasons I pointed out. Because my reasoning is based on the future, not present. Telling me that AAPL is a broken company when it is already a broken company does not help me, or anyone. Warning people along the way up, even if I was early, is actually valuable, and ultimately proved correct. You do not understand why the S&P will go where it will go. Just like you did not understand why AAPL could go down despite its sizable cash hoard. The markets do not care whether you are an optimist or pessimist. It is indifferent. It will go where it will go. The most dangerous mistake for any trader, a true professional trader I mean, is allowing personal biases influence your decision making. Whether that is based on falling in love with a stock, or national pride, or simply your personal good nature. Great nations have fallen before. In fact, EVERY great nation in the history of man has invariably fallen, EVERY time. Most of them due to out of control debt. #Bewell Great idea. You can trade it in any manner or fashion you please. My firm exclusively trades in futures. It is managed investor's money, not my personal account, so my hands are tied.
and even if they didn't hear what CX or any other student of the markets feels about tomorrow, the 2nd law of thermodynamix would already ensure such. but all is not lost b/c the day after tomorrow might still offer some new talent to 'would hit' (ordo ab chao)..
Yeppp, time to start selling. What to do with Sprint though? Not sure what usually happens with rumored buyouts - it's up 13.5% today
I would hold for now. From glancing at the story quickly it appears as if SoftBank is very likely to counter the DISH bid. I'd look to sell the morning SoftBank counters, but if you want to take some profits now then that's fine too.
Yes I am always open to learn about how others are looking at things. Lol it's nice to revise history, isn't it? Your reasoning was wrong for awhile on AAPL. But it's whatever...we don't get every trade right. I think I stated why I changed my opinion AAPL before. Their cash position is also a pretty significant drag on EPS. I think I got bored at the office one day and calculated it. I was expecting the company to be more responsive and they weren't....so...opinions change. I like how you talk about personal bias and then go on to talk about how America is going to collapse when you have nothing to indicate that it will. Feel free to post anything that you have that might be a good read on the coming collapse of America. I understand we have a lot of debt and a big deficit, but you act as if no steps are being taken to stabilize these problems. Yeah I wish changes would come quicker, but the bottom line is the deficit is shrinking quickly. It's funny how you seemingly forget all of the things that make America the most dominant and dynamic society ever formed. Americans seem to somehow forget this very easily. It's a good thing because it continually spurs change and evolution of our society. All I know is the businesses that I own have grown RAPIDLY and the state and city that I live in are both growing very fast. Don't confuse me using the word 'optimistic' with being biased. I am optimistic because of what I see around me. My opinions can quickly change as well . Oh well...hope the trade works out for your firm.
My first day back trading in a couple months first thing I notice are that the gold miners completely dead now that gold is in a downtrend. Sell any rallies in these suckers.
In response to your post above... Where have you read that our deficit has been shrinking? Do you mean it is growing at a decreasing rate or that it has actually decreased?
