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Anyone know DMs hit-miss rate in the draft?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by agentkirb87, Apr 10, 2013.

  1. meh

    meh Member

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    Well, since drafting is about who you drafted vs. who you COULD have drafted, things like trading Batum for Greene does matter. As does things like Green for Artest, Lamb for Harden trades. Because the Rockets didn't pick these players with the intention of trading them. Therefore the Rockets rated these players as the best of their respective draft position.

    But overall, there does seem to be a trend with Morey's draft. He has an utter inability to find high upside players(all-star/near all-star level), but brutally high efficiency at getting capable role players. True, high upside players are difficult to find in general, but they're not impossible. But whenever Morey picks a guy that screams high reward but risky, said player usually sucks badly. Morris, TWill, Greene(although Sacramento development system might have something to do with it).
     
  2. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Francis was a move the owner wanted.
    Ariza was dealt for Lee, so I don't consider it a negative.

    Royce White and Morris to me were the two big misses... But many players drafted in that part of the draft don't pan out, plus White was wanted by McHale and we got Parsons in the same draft as Morris... So it is hard to really say.

    Overall I think Morey is in the top 10% (remember it is Morey and Rosas etc). If someone is a GM long enough they will have many mistakes, even Jerry West and Red Auerbach.
     
  3. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    It's okay to love on Morey because he is a Rocket but try not to twist the truth in making out to be a genius...

    Second Rounders:
    Steve Novak at 32, drafted in 2006 - Morey was CD's assistant for a couple of months. That was CD's draft.
    Carl Landry at 31, CD's find - Actually he credited Dean Cooper with finding Carl Landry for the Rockets but he stamped his name on it.
    Chase Budinger at 44, Adelman walked over Morey and straight to Les to get him. Same thing for Brooks
    Chandler Parsons at 38 - Makes up for all of the others.
    vs
    Brad Newley
    Joey Dorsey
    Marty Leunen
    Jermaine Taylor
    Sergio Luill
    Furkan Aldemir (drafted in 2012, have to defer judgement till later.)

    Same thing for his first round picks... He never wanted Batum. He traded his 25 for 27 and a 31st pick before Batum was even selected of course the trade couldn't be completed officially until parts of the trade had been completed but he didn't trade Batum, he traded the 25 which Portland used to draft Batum. it's not the same thing at all. I wanted Batum and not Greene. later Greene played great in S/L and I thought Morey is a genius. Morey also said Dorsey is the future of centers. So naturally I believed him.

    As for the other picks

    Taken at 20 and below:
    Donte Montejunas at 20 - great pick for Morey although Faried was available although I wouldn't have picked him
    Terrence Jones at 18 - Great pick probably would have taken jared Sullinger. I think Jones will be better overall.
    Royce White 16 - great talent but I thought he had character issues big time over his anxiety stuff - Not sure who Iwould have taken Liked Sullinger but honestly did not know he had health issues, like Crowder but wasn't sure he could play the 3. Wasn't crazy about Wroten.I f I got henson I wouldn't have taken another pf. I loved will barton but only as a second rounder.
    Morris at 14 - my pick Kawhi Leonard
    Patrick Patterson at 14 My pick Larry Sanders averaging 10 rbs and 3 blks
    Jeremy Lamb at 12 - My pick John Henson - last night 17 pts, 25rbs - 7blks

    A lot of people on here has similar picks that were better than Morey. He has definitely missed the boat on some of these but you have to judge the whole picture if you want to give hi a fair grade. Morey isn't just in charge of the draft he is in charge of player personnel and I give him an A for that. He has transformed all of his assets into the team we have. I like the team we have and I think we are even in a good position to improve it and I am curious to see what Morey does next.
     
  4. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    how did that Adelman vs. Morey thing happen, btw? Was Morey opposed to drafting those certain players, or? And how come the fans know about it, who went public?
     
  5. ahhh

    ahhh Member

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    Morey sucks at drafting
     
  6. Rockets2K

    Rockets2K Clutch Crew

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    actually, I dont think it was ever really confirmed....I would love to see a link if there is one. The Rockets are normally real good at keeping things internal.

    3 pages in, several posts outlining in detail the fact that at worst, he is average...and that is all you got?

    You should have never clicked reply....you add nothing of value or truth to this thread.
     
  7. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Ehh not ready to go this far. Morey has had very few high draft picks and an overwhelming majority of high upside players are drafted in the top 5-8 picks. Morey has also targeted a number of high upside players he has wanted in the draft and has not been able to trade up for them.

    There are a few he missed on, but one could argue that Parsons fits into the high upside player. He is as good, or better than most of the high upside players the Rockets missed on.

    Morey missed on Morris, but I dont view him as a high upside gamble honestly. Greene was late in the draft and TWill was someone he didn't draft but took a flier on. He knew he could get a late #1 if he really wanted on via trade.

    Guys like Thabeet, Flynn, Robinson, TWill, Aldrich etc.. all were attempts to catch lightening in a bottle with very little risk involved.
     
  8. Nook

    Nook Member

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    It is a bunch of BS.... you have to be consistent. If you are going to say Brooks and Buddinger were because of Adelman and then Morey gets no credit, then by that logic Royce White was McHale's pick and Morey deserves no blame.

    The truth is Morey isn't a dictator making selections, he relies heavily on his stat heads and his scouts... especially Rosas. The brilliance of Morey is that he has surrounded himself with very bright people.

    The only way to really "rate" Morey is to give him credit and blame for all the picks and compare them to the other teams in the league. If you are a GM long enough, you will have some major blunders. Even Jerry West and Red Auerbach made huge mistakes because it is a real crap shoot.

    As for Brooks and Buddinger...... I suspect that the Morey and his staff liked both, and did not simply draft them because Adelman liked them. Morey for years has wanted guards that have great quickness and three point range... something Brooks had... as for Chase, he is an under rated athlete with high upsize, another trait that Morey cherishes.

    Last, you have to consider the configuration of the team at the time of the draft. When the Rockets had Yao and TMac, they targeted players that would contribute sooner and operate as role players... hence the Artest trade, and passing on players like Larry Sanders.

    Morey has been well above average at a minimum when it comes to the draft. Go through other teams and see whom they passed on, or traded to other teams on draft night and you will find few better than Morey, especially considering draft position.
     
  9. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Member

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    True, but how many GM's find near all-star/all-star calliber players in the 12 - 40th pick range?? Also how many GM's have been able to absorb as many high upside talents at such a relatively low cost? EX: Remember New Jersey Nets essentially had to have a losing season to get the opportunity to draft Terrence Williams. Sacramento tanked for a top 5 pick to draft Thomas Robinson, and Morey snatched him up 6 months later for a rotation player and cash. The list goes on, and on.

    I would say when it comes to finding Superstars pretty much every GM struggles finding them in that range, not just Morey. Add up how many all-star players in the past ten years have been picked outside the top ten, then divide that times the number of draft picks in those years. See what kind of numbers you get back, and the percentage of true hits outside the top ten.

    *Finding Parsons at 38 is about as good as any GM has ever done in the 2nd round in recent years. You have to go back to the Spurs with Ginobili, and the Lakers/Grizz with Gasol to see that kind of find that late in the draft. If Parsons develops into anything more than what he is now, Morey will be one of about 5 GM's in the past decade to draft an all-star calliber player in the 2nd round that wasn't a Euro-stash player. Worth noting IMO.

    Any GM who in his career who drafts just one all-star player outside of the lottery should have a plaque on the wall of his office for that accomplishment.

    When it comes to good players he passed on to draft players that didn't work out(like passing on Omer Asik or DeAndre Jordan to select Joey Dorsey), you are simply cherry picking because literally every other GM passed on them too so there obviously was good reason for doing so at the time. So does Morey have a perfect record? Obviously not, but does anyone else have anything close to a perfect record? Its hard to find fault in a GM that doesn't draft all-star talent, when that GM isn't ever drafting in the top 10.
     
    #49 dobro1229, Apr 11, 2013
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2013
    1 person likes this.
  10. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    To be fair Adelman liked Brooks and Morey obliged. Morey deserves credit for that. But Morey had just walked up to Les and asked for Money to buy the picks for Taylor and Llull and he was done for the draft. Budinger dropped and Adelman went to Les not Morey and asked if they could get this kid because he thought Budinger could help. Les obliged. Still if you want to get technical Morey could have advised Les against it. So he deserves credit there also.

    The thing is I think Morey is improving. He just got his first GM job and anyone who thinks he hasn't learned a few things. Lamb was not a bad selection. I would have taken Henson because I don't think Lamb does much more than score. I thought his defense sucked. I liked Will Barton's overall game better than his and I would never draft Barton in the lottery. Still Lamb proved to a pure scorer and not as bad defensively as I first thought (not good just not horrible). Terrence Jones is really good at the 20th.

    I give him a pass on Royce White even I saw his amazing talent but thought this kid was not a good guy beyond his mental issues. But the thing is McHale was his advocate and I think part of Moreys job is to listen to his coach and ry to give him what he needs. So Morey had a good draft this year. And he is still the master of the trade. he preys on teams looking for cap room and free agents with value and he makes them offers their teams can't match.

    What I find most amazing is how he gets players and they mostly play better here. Lin and Asik were good signing that turned amazingly into great signings. Harden has played head and shoulders better than his OKC days.How did he find Beverly for free. Amazing.And what's even more amazing is the guys play better here and then they get traded and aren't as good. It's like he finds players that fit our chemistry and fill a needed role and he almost sales high to get mre value back. he has done that time and time again. That's what impresses me most about Morey. I wouldn't want another GM at this point. He is much better than the 2006 Morey.
     
  11. FTW Rockets FTW

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    Off late the only move i question is busty Morris over Faried and to a certain extent Kawhi Leonard. Not worried about missing out on Leonard as we got Parsons.
     
  12. CisBuds4U

    CisBuds4U Member

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    yeah well, it goes the other way too. 29 teams passed on Parsons
    (30 if you count the Rockets the first time around)

    Every team has hits and misses....our entire starting roster besides Harden are 2nd rounders, or non-draftees! (when smith is starting!) That is actually pretty crazy if you think about it. 1st rounders are clearly overrated ;)

    Starting Lineup (sans Harden)
    Parsons-2nd
    Asik-2nd
    Lin-undrafted
    Smith-undrafted

    Other Starting PFs

    (DMo-20th in 1st round)
    (Tones--18th 1st round )
    (TROB--5th in 1st, on the bench)
     
  13. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Member

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    To be fair, at 14 Morris is looking far from a true bust. In the right system (like the current Rockets) he is a more than adequate rotation player. The Rockets would love to have him back, but only traded him because the guys behind him are projected to "potentially" offer more production at his position "in the future." Morris will be a rotation player in the league for many years if put on the right team. Far, far from being considered a true bust.
     
  14. rocketjunkie

    rocketjunkie Member

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    The barrier trade was a Morey move. That is pretty much acknowledged (and was confirmed to me by someone in the know - the only time in my life I got anything from someone from the rockets, which tells me it wasn't a secret). Besides, most reports established that we would have picked batum anyway with the pick, and not gay. The person I talked did say that gay improved a little faster than the front office thought. However, Gay is nothing but an overpaid inefficient player with flashes of talent. No way we'd want him now at that price.
     
  15. rocketjunkie

    rocketjunkie Member

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    See my other post. We would not have selected gay. This was a moreyball move. I was told that they had to come to Alexander with the trade and he was surprised at first because he didn't think battier was that good until they showed him the numbers from a statistical perspective.
     
  16. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    The only one I question was Kawhi Leonard. He dropped just a few picks down from 14 and San Antonio scooped him up. Leonard may never be an allstar, which is what Morey drafts for, but he is a great piece and would be a tremendous help for our perimeter defense.
     
  17. rocketjunkie

    rocketjunkie Member

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    Someone who makes sense. For example, West choose Drew Gooden over stoudamire. Repped.
     
  18. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    It is indeed a complicated thing to rate a GM's draft records. You need not only rate the players he picked, but also the players he did NOT pick when he had a chance. And then there are the draft day trades and trading of drafted players before they had a chance to show whether they are busts or studs.

    I have said it elsewhere. Morey is very good at picking undervalued players in the low 1st round, 2nd round, and the undrafted pool. He is not particularly great at picking great talents in high to mid 1st round.

    But one thing about Morey that makes him such a good GM is that he is quick to know his mistakes and correct them. Because he is very good at managing cap space and contracts, he always has the flexibility he needs to get rid of his mistakes. This is not true with the majority of GMs.
     
  19. PDJACK7

    PDJACK7 Member

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    Based solely on the draft, I say he is a below average GM, because of the misses as well as most of the draft picks are not even on the team anymore(traded or overseas). For me, I want him to take guys that are going to stay with the team. For a minute it seemed we were playing musical chairs (or should I say musical team) with young draft picks. It seems that out of all those picks he has made, only Parsons is here to stay (gotta see what happens with DMo, Jones, and do I dare say White).

    But let's look at the whole picture. He is great at making trades and fleecing other GM's. I must admit that I've been critical of some of his moves that he has made, but they have led us to where we are now. A young talented team with a young star player, and we are under the cap. I'm really anticipating to see what he has in store this off-season. Every move (even though I didn't agree with most) has gotten better and better, and has made us a better team. With that said, I could care less who he drafts. He can draft Brittany Griner for all I care, as long as he can flip her for an All-star caliber player, I'll say great drafting.
     
  20. Rockets2K

    Rockets2K Clutch Crew

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    On this point, I would say *sample size*.

    He hasnt exactly been blessed with any high picks, 14-30 in the average draft is going to get you what he got....average NBA players.

    I don't think there should be any doubt at this point that Morey is an above average GM and we are lucky to have him.
     

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