NYTimes Recognition for Moreyball

http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/03/for-the-rockets-it-really-is-science/

For the Rockets, It Really Is Science

By MAX ROTHMAN
When Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey signed a four-year contract extension in March, it signaled a victory not just for his wallet, but also for the numbers movement. The extension validated the idea that Morey and other stats guys could last.

Advanced metrics have been established as a requisite in baseball, but are honeymooning with basketball. Morey has served as a leading pioneer of the convergence. He read the abstracts of Bill James when he was young, worked as a statistical consultant with STATS Inc., earned a bachelor’s degree in computer science with an emphasis on statistics from Northwestern University and an M.B.A. from the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management. He has written articles on sports analytics in the Harvard Business Review and The Economist. He has also molded the Rockets into a near-ideal representation of his philosophies without mitigating the on-court knowledge of Coach Kevin McHale.

Reaching this point required unpopular moves that puzzled fans and executives alike. The Rockets finished last year’s lockout-shortened season at 34-32, their third consecutive season of straddling the .500 mark and missing the playoffs. Morey recognized that few things are worse than mediocrity — your team has no shot at a title or a high draft pick. So he reset the roster.

After failing to acquire Dwight Howard, he drafted Jeremy Lamb, Terrence Jones and Royce White, the gifted point-forward with an anxiety disorder. On July 11, he traded Kyle Lowry, the starting point guard. Two days later he amnestied Luis Scola, the starting power forward and a fan favorite. On July 18, he signed Jeremy Lin after outbidding the Knicks. Two days later, he traded guard Courtney Lee to Boston. On July 24, he signed center Omer Asik after outbidding the Bulls. Locals wanted Morey’s head before he had finished his plan.

At the dawn of the regular season, he swapped guard Kevin Martin, Lamb, a few first-round picks and a second-rounder to the Oklahoma City Thunder for guard James Harden, the sixth man of the year. A few days later, on Halloween night in Detroit, in his first game in Rockets red, Harden had 37 points and 12 assists en route to a season-opening victory. The next day he signed a five-year contract extension with Houston. The day after that, he dropped a career-high 45 points in a victory at Atlanta. It took some time, but critics now understand Morey’s science.

The Rockets currently possess what they previously lacked: hope. At 41-33, and after recently trading for forward Thomas Robinson, the No. 5 pick of last year’s draft (widely regarded as a heist), this team remains a project, but also has a lot of useful pieces. Harden, Lin, Asik, guards Carlos Delfino and Patrick Beverley, forward Donatas Motiejunas, and Chandler Parsons, the 24-year-old swingman who averages 15.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game yet makes less than $1 million this season, have led the enactment of Morey’s numerical ideals. The Rockets average 30.2 shot attempts at the rim per game, trailing only the Denver Nuggets, and lead the league with 2,126 3-point attempts. They also average three shots from 10-15 feet and 10.1 shots from 16-23 feet per game; both are easily the lowest figures in the N.B.A.

And then there’s White. While he still hasn’t made his debut with the Rockets, Morey’s interest follows his philosophy. If White ever plays, he has the potential to become a transcendent piece of Houston’s future. He dribbles and passes like a point guard and rebounds resolutely. If he never plays, he’s just another risk that didn’t work out. The White selection symbolizes Morey’s desire for bargain greatness or failure over mediocrity; the same reason that he overthrew last season’s roster.

About one month ago at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, which he co-founded in 2006, fans and aspiring general managers flocked to Morey. Some remembered Houston’s 22-game winning streak of 2008 led by Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady and Shane Battier. Others appreciated this season’s Rockets, arguably the most surprising team in the league. They also inquired about front-office jobs related to statistics. After Morey’s work in Houston, the league will soon have more of those.