The fundamental variable with doing all these cost/benefit risk/reward type analyses is how the team evaluates the player. Every decision hinges on that, and we as outsiders know relatively little about the team's assessment of a player. The evaluation of players like Patterson and Robinson, where you are going off potential or good but inconsistent play, is going to vary from team to team. Morey said the same thing about the Dwight Howard trade. At the end of the day, the Magic liked Afflalo more than our players. I imagine Morey figures he can sign a Patterson type player whenever he wants. Same can't be said for a top 5 pick.
36 pages on freaking Patrick patterson, not harden our franchise player, but patrick " I wish I could play basketball shirtless" patterson!
The data suggests he is not good now and will likely be a bust-- raw, low efficiency, undersized, and relatively old for a rookie. However, player evaluation is probabilistic in nature so there is a small chance for him to resurrect his career. Right now, I'd say he is maybe 85-90% busty.
Probabilistic? I bet you've waited your entire life to find a use for that word, CH. Congratulations!
Think probabilistically. Robinson is not definitively a bust, just very likely to be one. Waiting til the end of season changes the cost u pay for him (not ****ing with this season's team, not messing with chances to make playoffs and maybe even pull an upset or at least win 2-3 games if you get to the 6th seed) and increases the data you have on him before paying a price. Robinson's price will likely decrease also as he continues to struggle in SAC.
Ed Davis his rookie year per 36 minutes: 11pts/10reb Derrick Favors his rookie year per 36 minutes: 12.5pts/9.5reb Thomas Robinson his rookie year per 36 minutes: 11pts/10.5reb rare athletic ability, steady improvement since joining the team, reports out of practice that he's absolutely beasting... seriously bro, your claim just isn't credible. We don't know what Robinson is yet, but calling him Stromile Swift shows a very evident bias on your part.
There is also a variable that sometimes has little to do with basketball reasons: money. Teams often dump players not because they aren't good but because they are, or soon will be, too expensive. I believe that this trade is akin to the Battier-Thabeet trade. Granted, Battier was a lot older than Patterson is and Robinson looked a lot better than Thabeet at the time of trade. But it's the same kind of reasoning. Battier was what he was, a solid role player. And Morey didn't want to give him a new contract after the season. Thabeet hadn't shown much but was a high pick and still might have good potential. Patterson is what he is, a solid role player, and Morey probably didn't want to pay him when Pat's rookie contract expires. Robinson is not showing much but he's a high pick and has good potential. I see it as a classic Morey assets move. Interestingly, in both instances, the coach didn't like it because it set the team back while we were in the heat of a playoffs chase. But this time is a bit better because we have better talent to offset the set back.
Damn, CH is still on this? Well, skimming the last couple of pages, I might as well put my 2 cents in. 1. On the issue of Patterson vs. TRob, this doesn't even matter. Patterson was going to be traded. It was just a matter of if he gets traded for immediate help(Camby type), a low 1st rounder(like the CBud trade), or for someone like TRob(TWill type trade). From a long term perspective, I'd put TRob's value up with any possible player we can get for Patterson. The only way for this to be a Patterson vs TRob argument, is if PPat blows up and becomes a star. So far, that seems unlikely to say the least. 2. Playoff odds. I don't know what CH's estimates in his head is, but I'm guessing it's very different from Morey's odds. Or most other people's odds. Sure, if there's a difference of 10%, that might be important. But what if it was 1-2%? FWIW, nobody surprised post-trade. Beverley got more minutes, but he's doing the same as he did pre-trade. Garcia and TRob has had limited impact at best. DMo's playing mediocre. Yet the Rockets are still winning and now basically guaranteed a spot. So if everyone's playing as expected and the Rockets are a shoo-in for the playoffs WITHOUT Patterson, than certainly the odds can't possibly get much higher with him.
1. Pat and Mook are insignificant and trading them has done nothing to hurt the Rockets play-off chances. 2. You don't wait till the off-season to acquire a top five pick if you think he has the potential to be an all-star, you take him when he is available. Why? Because you probably will not get a 2nd shot at him in the off-season. 3. The Rockets essentially traded a big bag of nothing for TRob. Douglas has been effectively replaced by Patrick Beverly, Cole Aldrich could be effectively replaced by the sweat from between my legs and Patrick Patterson has been more than effectively replaced by DMo and Smith. 4. The Rockets have been better with out Pat so all should be good and you should be happy. 29 wins and 26 losses with Pat for a winning percentage of .527 11 wins and 7 losses with out Pat for a winning percentage of .611 Included in those wins with out PPat are the 3 best wins of the season against OKC, SAS and LAC. With Pat we were 0 wins and 9 losses against those teams, with out PPat were are 3 wins and 0 losses. You argument just continues to get weaker and weaker. Tell us again what your problem with the trade was?
No. Morey thinks probabilistically. He's got a team full of MIT grads getting paid six figures to crunch numbers and a room full of IBMs churning data. Please don't ****ing tell me you think probabilistically. You talk out of your ass, just like the rest of us fans. No better, no worse. Your greatest contribution to this message board was a few gay jokes that made us all chuckle. Please don't start eating up your own ****.
My IBM tells a different story. There was a 96.5% probability that the Rockets make the playoffs before the trade, and a 150.7% probability that the Rockets make the playoffs after the trade through addition by subtraction. There is a 63.4% probability that Thomas Robinson becomes a MVP candidate. If he fails to reach that, it was the 36.6%. There was a 99.9% probability that Marcus Morris would become our next franchise player. I was never wrong. You see, it was the 0.1%. You ignoramuses have to think more probabilistically.
Favors Rookie% .511 Davis Rookie% .576 TRob Rookie% .431 Maybe we should move him to SG because based on those stats that looks like where he belongs. And you can't blame it on 3pters. 4...3...1... Find me 1 PF who had a percentage like that his rookie year and amounted to a starter or even a decent bench PF. ...here comes the yea but...he can rb (avg)...and jump...he's a rook...haters gonna hate...morey knows more than you...and well give me a sec but TRob is just worth it...
Players are a lot more than one stat. He sucks right now as far as shot selection. There is a guy in Dallas not to be named that shot worse. This guy Ben Wallace also shot worse.
FG% rises once he came to the Rockets. Also at Sacramento they actually wanted him to take jumpers and improve his skills at SF. It's not like he was only getting shots at the rim here.
Dont try to give contect context to the stats. These guys just want to look at the stat and have it prove their point. Context means nothing to these guys.
pssshht don't be rational. I don't think there's space in this thread for those who think rationally!
Okay so are 2013ers still Patrick Patterson on a good road but its early? Cos I think its a bit too late tbh.
Can't wait till next game, Patpat vs Smith/Trob/Dmo/. Patpat is going to be looking for some revenge and everyone on Clutchfans is going to be missing him. Also April 3rd is when Kevin Johnson meets with the board of governors.
