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Jeremy Lin's upside

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Jul 20, 2012.

  1. Jedster

    Jedster Member

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    It's true that Winkfan was only talking about points, but Jeremy's game was never only about points. So to say that Lin's 3 game 20+ point streak doesn't mean anything is a little unfair I think. It means a great deal for a guy who doesn't jack a large volume of shots, and contributes greatly in other areas.
     
  2. Cynops

    Cynops Member

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    I agree that these past 3 games by themselves does not mean a whole lot. But taking into account his continued steady improvement building up to these last few excellent game says a lot. They aren't isolated instances, he's been playing better and better, more and more consistently since November. That implies a whole lot.
     
  3. Skyhoop

    Skyhoop Member

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    Except it's not like it's the first time he's ever strung together 3 good games like this. He did it before in Linsanity. And what he did during Linsanity was not something that any scrub could do. Look at the list of people who have done it, and you see that he's in good company. There's no Tyrone Nesbit or Flip Murray on the list, so I like those odds.

    There's pretty good analysis from Nate Silver from a statistical perspective of why he isn't a Tyrone Nesbitt or a Flip Murray, and why Linsanity wasn't a fluke in that old article at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/jeremy-lin-is-no-fluke/
    So not only do you have the quantitative statistical perspective where the statistical context puts what he did outside the range of flukes and hot streaks like Flip Murray or Tyrone Nesbitt. But you also have the eye-test and qualitative perspective that proves it wasn't a hot streak fluke, because a hot-streak would rely on scoring his points off unsustainable hot shooting from deep (not the variety of ways he was scoring).
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. webattorney

    webattorney Member

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    Reasonable people can disagree on this point, obviously. I tend to think that if he stays healthy, his floor is Goran, and his upside is an All-Star at the peak of his career. His D is above average overall, not great as some people say; he plays D differently than other people. He also brings the "winner" attitude and makes other players better. He needs to develop a little more variety to his offensive moves, so he can score less physically. I already noticed that his handle has improved. I think Lin will accomplish more in his career than John Wall, and that's saying something. He is not overpaid at all, and at the end of 3 years with Rockets, his market price will go up significantly. I would like to see Lin perform during playoffs for a more accurate assessment, but he is a player on the rise and gaining confidence.
     
  5. AustinPowers

    AustinPowers Member

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    These past 3 games shows a lot.

    It shows that last year wasn't a fluke when he averaged close to 19 points per game during the Linsanity stretch.
     
  6. AustinPowers

    AustinPowers Member

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    Another note about Lin, he scored 38 (50% fg) vs the Lakers last year without Melo.
    He also scored 38 against the Spurs (52% fg) this year without Harden.

    So as the focal offensive player for those night, he was STILL able to score that many points while shooting over 50%.
     
  7. GSWSFG49ers

    GSWSFG49ers Rookie

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    The truth is the Rockets should trade Lin while his value is high .They may be able to get good powerforward in the process
     
  8. raskol

    raskol Contributing Member

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    Why are you on this board exactly? To talk about trading Lin again? I just checked and 50% of your posts suggest slim should be traded. And you're not even a Rockets fan you're a Warriors fan. Are you one of those haters that wanted to justify letting Lin go by calling him a scrub? An early version of the LOH all the way from the Bay Area? Stop posting stupid trade ideas.
     
  9. GSWSFG49ers

    GSWSFG49ers Rookie

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  10. GSWSFG49ers

    GSWSFG49ers Rookie

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    Obviously lin is not a scrub. The rockets need a power forward. And its a free country <<<<<<
     
  11. mothman

    mothman Member

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    Tyrone Lamont Nesby

    Position: Forward ▪ Shoots: Right
    Height: 6-6 ▪ Weight: 225 lbs.
    Born: January 31, 1976 (Age 37) in Cairo, Illinois
    High School: Cairo in Cairo, Illinois
    College: University of Nevada, Las Vegas
    NBA Debut: February 5, 1999

    Per Game:-
    [​IMG]

    Highest scoring game: 30pts against Seattle SuperSonics on 5 May 1999.
     
  12. aesthetics80

    aesthetics80 Member

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    He was a forward? Those are some atrocious FG% numbers for a forward....
     
  13. kuku

    kuku Member

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    Most people agree that Lin is currently performing in par with his contract. Factor in that this is his full seaosn as a starter, learning a difficult postion, and Rockets aren't making a serious run, it's a satisfactory result.

    However, to make a serious run for a championship, he will have to perform beyond his contract value. Not just him, every one of our starters has to perform beyond expectation.

    Let me explain this further.

    All NBA teams are limited by what they can spend. The current cap is around 60 millions. All team who are making serious run are all capped out, with a couple of exceptions (NYN, BKN, LAL).

    If we can equate a player's performance in dollars, LeBron is on the top of the list (I estimate his worth is up around 50 mils), the follow by CP3, Durant, D12.

    Heat actual salary is 83 millions this year. Let's say their players performance is at 120 million. How will Rockets compete when all of our players perform right at their salary worth, which is around 52 millions? Rockets have absolutely no chance of winning.

    Even with teams like Lakers who outspent Heat at 100 million have little chance of winning if their players perform at 60 millions. It's not about whoever spend the most has the best shot of winning. It's the team with highest players performance value has the best chance of winning.

    Any team with players who perform less than 80 millions has little chance of beating the Heat this year. So in the future if Lin, or anyone else on the starting lineup, is part of a championship run, he will have to perform beyond his contract value.

    How will we find players who perform beyond his value? Superstars!

    I's sure Morey understands this. That's why he doesn't take chance of bad contracts and pursues superstars (D12 CP3). Bad max contract(s) will instantly doom a franchise for any serious run (2 NY teams). Teams with most undervalue players will have the best chance of winning. It's all simple math.
     
  14. hltiki

    hltiki Member

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  15. Jedster

    Jedster Member

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    Thanks for the info!
     
  16. TuanDinhVu

    TuanDinhVu Member

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    Jeremy has a great work ethic and heart. He is a team player so focusing on his stats won't tell the whole story. I think he now is in a good place where he can get a lot of experience and take advantage of working with coaches on fundamentals of his game and getting better. Hopefully, the Rockets keep the team consistent and stable so that they develop chemistry (like the Spurs). If the team goes deep into the playoffs, that is what matters.
     
  17. webattorney

    webattorney Member

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    Response

    Man, Lin is 6 feet 3. Anyone under 6 feet in basketball will have a steep climb to play in NBA, period.
     
  18. GWST11

    GWST11 Member

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    FTFY.
     
  19. hmc317

    hmc317 Member

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    Based on Jeremy's age and upside/improvement potential, i think he is well worth his contract. Only negative thing you could say is, he is probably overpaid for his age/experience, but if you were to take into account if he were drafted in the first round, he would be on a rookie scale contract right now for somewhere between $2m to $5m lol, so it was kind of a good thing for Jeremy to go undrafted and get paid right away lol

    This is a list of the top 20 PG salaries this year in the NBA, based on their team cap hit. There are alot of young good PG not listed like lillard, holiday, curry, rubio, jennings, irving, evans, and more. but they are all still on their rookie contracts this year, and some of them will get and some have already gotten contract extensions for more than the $8m Lin gets currently, so Lin is definitely not overpaid in that respect too.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Random Fan

    Random Fan Member

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    He also had the highest usage rate of any player during that stretch. He had the ball literally 99.9% of the time he was on the floor. That leads to some games where you drop 38 and some games where you turn the ball over 9 times and your team loses. He just has poor ballhandling fundamentals. His lack of true speed requires him to take risks and put himself out of position and off balance that players with better speed and ballhandling mechanics don't have to do. He's just too flawed of a player.
     

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