He is the most controversial Rocket I can remember since the days of Tracy McGrady and the minute-restrictions/every other game era. We have seen the extremes of his play on court as his best is near allstar level and his worst is d-league worthy. He is one of the most polarizing figures in sports because despite having so many detractors and haters, he is a model citizen and is a hard working underdog that is hard not to like as a person. That being said, here are the issues that need to be addressed regardless of whether you are a LOF, LOH, or general rockets fan like myself. 1. How good of a player is current Lin and what is his ceiling? 2. can he reach that ceiling and how does that fit with the future of Rockets 3. what is his worth to the organization and is he a coveted asset around the league? (1) It is true that Lin is still relatively young in his NBA career and that the sample size is not large enough to give us a sure fire projection on his player development. However, I believe we have seen enough to be able to at least look at him beyond the Linsanity phase. Current Lin is an offensive pg that is relentless in his attack to the rim and has an elite first step to get there but has a hard time sometimes because he does not finish well, often gets caught jumping in the air without a plan, and does not have the handles to probe in and out of the paint. He is a decent but streaky mid range shooter and has 3 point range but is severely affected by his confidence level. He is a good passer in open court but very turnover prone due to the boom/bust style. Defensively, he makes the effort and has good size (which should make you at least average in the NBA) but lacks the discipline or instincts to be elite. He gambles a lot and his propensity toward help defense is also hit/miss where he either gets the steal or leaves his man open for a high percentage shot. As a player today, he is below average as a starting PG as there are at least 15 pg better (Paul, Parker, Curry, Westbrook, Irving, Rondo, Lowry, Williams, Lawson, Holiday, Lillard, Jack, Vasquez, Nash, Rubio, Dragic...). His ceiling, we've already seen glimpses of, is a near-all star level quality. (2) As a houston rocket, I don't think he will ever reach his ceiling. this is because jeremy's strengths shine when he is the focal point on offense and can run a lot of pick and rolls on offense. While he will have his opportunities in stretches, the coming of james harden (a vastly superior focal point) means that jeremy will never have the opportunity in houston to tailor to his strengths. Therefore, he will never fully be able to be his best because frankly, a team that makes him focal point, is never going to be a championship contending team. So in essense, it is much better to evaluate Jeremy's ceiling as a Rocket rather than him as a player in general. In this aspect, I think that a sixth-man role, ala James Harden OKC days is the best way to utilize Lin's strengths and will be his eventual role in the Rockets. (3) Lin being the underdog Asian is a good marketing tool and definitely worth his contract in terms of value to the organization. As a player, Morey gambled pre-Harden because the philosophy was to gather players that can make that jump. I firmly believe that Morey would not have offered Lin this type of contract (8+ million per year) if we had Harden. Then again, New York would have matched if we had offered less. Lin's contract is also relatively short but it is very difficult to move for Morey personally because of the history of letting him go in the past and his marketability issue. A struggling franchise looking for "something/anything" (like Hou was last year) may explore trading for him but we would not be getting much in return, and definitely not be able to fleece any team with him. So, in conclusion. - Lin is here to stay probably until the end of his contract (unless we need to move him for his capspace and can get a clear upgrade) - He will get better as a player but will never be the star as a Rocket - If he wants to fit into a championship contending team with the Rockets, he will have to embrace a 6th-man role and become a Jason Terry/Crawford type of difference maker in order to play up to his contract as a non-starter.
Agree with this thoughtful analysis (with exception of the list of PG better than him right now). As a fan of Lin, I think I am one of only a few that have advocated for his being the primary 6th man off the bench ON THIS ROCKETS team. I don't want to see it as a demotion but perhaps in practicality a lateral move... if McHale would let him be the primary playmaker once harden sits so that Lin can have the freedom to run the second unit against the opposing second unit talent. I actually think he can be MORE impactful this way and contribute more to the team's chances night in night out, he would not have any endurance issues, he would get out of harden's way, he can play more or less on any given night depending if he's on or off without having the controversy of getting pulled, he will have a better understanding and assurance of what his role is, and believe it or not he can still have his cult following this way.
I know this is another Lin thread, and all, BUT -- It's a really nice breath of Lin Sanity! Kinda sums things up neatly. Would be great if there could be some kind of consensus around this, methinks.
I think Lin is slightly better than Dragic and Lowry in a couple of years, so he'll be an above average to goodish starter. If Lin continues to improve the way we think we can, there's no doubt I think his ceiling can be...oh, let's say a Chancey Billups type.
I am a big fan of Lin, but let me be objectively clear with you guys here. Lin is not going to be a top-flight point guard anywhere in this league. He just doesn't have it. Defensively he's not laterally quick so he gets beat off the dribble against quality point guards. He's not a great finisher around the rim especially from the left - he just doesn't have the explosiveness to get an extra umph to finish after making his initial move. From the right he puts everything high off the glass, which is great against shot blockers but not so great for high percentage shots. Also he has trouble getting around more physical defenders who are strong. He's probably not going to improve a who lot in those areas. A bit maybe. Where he will improve is his decision making. He makes a lot of bad decisions. A lot. He jumps into the air without knowing what he's going to do. Sometimes he gets caught and passes to spots instead of people. And makes some questionable decisions as to shots. But that can improve a lot with experience. And that is where he can be a good point guard with some nights of being great. But he doesn't have the raw talent of many other guys. Dragic has a higher ceiling for sure. But that's almost a credit to Lin because he has done more with less than any other young player I see out there. Which is why I like him so much. But people need to be realistic. Houston isn't holding him back, it's maturing him to be a better point guard. I think he can be a guy who gives you 17 a night on a high percentage, and gets you 8 assists. That's very good. But that's his ceiling. He's not going to be a Chris Paul or Rondo. He's more of a poor man's Steve Nash.
Is he better than Nash/Parker at the similar stage of their career? Is he better than Dragic at the same age?
For those of you advocating Lin come off the bench, who would you start in his place? As flawed as his game is, I still think he is the best PG on the roster.
If it is true that he only excels with the ball in his hands all the time, then he has no business in this league because he is not good enough to be the focal point of a winning team.
Have people been watching Kyle lowry this season?? He has been horrible to say the least. He has the ball in his hands most of the time yet still takes very bad shots and is not a good floor general.
Lin needs to be the 6th man, and be the focal point of the second unit.... Get a spot up 3 point shooter to play point with Harden...
I don't if you mean that you see can see Lin averaging an efficient 17 ppg with 8 assists pg over a course a season or doing that occasionally. If it it's the latter, he has 7 games this season, 6 of those against current playoff seeded teams. So, roughly 1 in 9 games he'll give you that type of production. But if it's the former, then you need to be a little more realistic. Because currently, there is only one point guard, Jrue Holliday, putting up >= 17 and >= 8 and he was an all-star. The next guard to put up >= 15 ppg and >= 8 apg is Chris Paul. He is an all-star too. If Lin does that, he'll definitely be an all-star and a top 10 point guard.
Lin will retire a Rocket. He's a marginal point guard but a cash cow for the Rockets to get money from foreign companies. Crazy how only Les is exploiting this. Anyone who thinks that he was brought in for his basketball talent is fooling themselves.
Aaron Brooks? I agree with this. I think Lin would be fine with it as well if he is helping the team win.
he has great games, good games, bad games and terrible games. they all add up to average in his first complete season. but 16 points 8 assts by the time he is 26 is not far fetched. Wish him the best and want him to succeed as a rocket, didn't care for him as a knickerbocker
I appreciate the non-incendiary tone and the thought that you've obviously invested into this post, OP. But I'm still slightly puzzled by one aspect, that perhaps you can elucidate. Specifically, it's the canard that Jeremy Lin's role on the team fits best as a 6th man. I think the problem with that scenario is a logistical one, and ultimately results in deferring a solution rather than truly solving the problem. If the problem is that Harden and Lin can't work together, then playing Lin off the bench doesn't truly solve the issue. Logistically, one need only look at the massive amount of minutes played by Harden. This in turn means that there isn't much room logistically for Lin to play without Harden. There will be considerable overlap even if Lin is playing off the bench and Harden is playing with the starting unit. So the same problem remains. The coaches still need to solve the Harden-Lin dynamic and get them to play well together during that overlap time. And if they can solve the dynamic where they are both on the court during the starter/bench overlap, then it's not a problem with them playing together in the starting lineup, so the point becomes moot. But, inability to solve that problem doesn't represent the same thing as inability to alleviate or optimize. If team dynamic is best optimized by having Harden and Lin on the court at different times, this can be accomplished just as well with them both starting but staggering their minutes so that one of them is always on the court at a time. This creates the same benefit as having Lin play off the bench, if the purpose of that benching was to stagger their minutes. Ultimately, if they can't find a way to work Harden and Lin together, I do agree that Lin will not be re-signed. Benching him doesn't solve the issue, since the large amount of minutes played by Harden means that there will be considerable overlap even if Lin plays off the bench. That 6th man setup is simply kicking the can down the road, and its effect can be replicated just by staggering the two starter's minutes. The reason for playing someone as a starter or as as bench guy ultimately depends on how many minutes you want them to play. If you're going to play them a lot of minutes, it's best to start them, since it gives them more rest in between starting and closing games. If you're going to give them much reduced minutes (there are very few minutes where Harden is not on the court, for Lin to solo it), then Lin is too expensive for 10 minutes a game. If you're going to give him more minutes than that, and but simply want him to play on a unit without Harden more, then simply start both of them but stagger their minutes so that you get the same effect. Whichever PG plays more minutes should start, in order to afford them more rest in the logistics of the game. Ultimately, they either get Harden and Lin to work together, or Lin will simply be let go at the end of his contract. Benching him doesn't create any benefit that can't be found just from staggering them, and can even create a negative effective because Lin would get less rest if he played starter minutes from the bench, or be too expensive if only playing bench minutes when Harden isn't around (too few minutes available where Harden isn't playing). I do agree with you that Lin will likely be here till the end of his contract unless there's an obvious upgrade that requires moving him for capspace reasons and perhaps taking a loss to do so. His contract structure makes it less likely that he is traded as we near the tail end of his contract. And if he is playing well enough that he can be moved despite the unique final year payout/caphit, then the Rockets wouldn't want to move him. It's up to the coaches to figure out the team dynamic. Or Lin will be released at the end of the contract. He will likely be here for the remainder of his contract and not traded. Consider the trade options. At the tail end of his contract, he will be owed $15M but only have a cap-hit of $8M. In any given year, Rockets can only send out $3M in cash. So that means that if he is traded in his final year, it would be as an $8M expiring with an extra $7M (or $4M if included with the full $3M cash) quasi-tax. Anyone who is interested in him as an expiring, would probably not want that quasi-tax. And if he is playing well enough to be worth that quasi-tax, then the Rockets would be foolish to trade him. In order to avoid that final year scenario, it would be easier to trade him earlier, so as to average out the quasi-tax of the last year. But that means Morey would have to trade him this off-season before getting a full look at him, and possibly risking history repeating itself like last time he left the Rockets. So ultimately, I find it most likely that he stays on the team for the entirety of his contract, for good or ill, due to the circumstances of the contract terms. The only scenario I can see him being traded is if he's used as a salary piece required for a trade for a star upgrade, where the peculiarities of his contract can be merged into the pool with other trade pieces. Or if Morey needs the roster space and salary cap for a superstar and is willing to be on the losing end of a trade in order to offload him. So, to recap -Lin will likely be here for his entire contract, for good or ill -Benching him doesn't solve anything, since you can create the same effect via staggering minutes. Further, benching him would be counterproductive when you take into account the logistics of resting and minutes played. -He will be let go at the end of his contract if the coaches can't figure out a way to mesh him and Harden together with starter minutes.
Has any PG in NBA history put up 17/8 with a ball dominant SG playing next to him, cause I don't think it's been done...
You act like Lin doesn't get touches. When the ball is not in Harden's hands, it's in Lin's hands. So the question should be has any ball dominant player played next to an even more dominant player and put up good numbers? The answer is yes, a big yes.
with 3 days of practice i hope brooks gets worked into rotation. Rockets choice of scoring has taken a major drop after trading ppat and morris.
