Here are some +/- stats during last 5 minutes when margin is <= 5 points. Overall, the team has been in this situation in a total of 66 minutes this season and are -9 collectively. Code: On/Off Clutch-Time Stats [B] ON OFF GP min +/- min +/- ------------- ---------[/B] Harden 24 60 -12 6 +3 Parsons 23 55 -13 11 +4 Delfino 20 47 -15 19 +6 Asik 17 43 +1 23 -10 Lin 20 42 -19 24 +10 Beverley 5 9 +7 57 -16 I included the 4 starters plus Delfino who's been a regular finisher this season. I'm also including the current backup PG. All stats from http://stats.nba.com.
So we play better with Beverley and Asik but worse with harden Parsons Delfino and Lin? What exactly does that stat mean?
Delfino with more minutes than Asik... Even with this admittedly small sample size, that's pretty ridiculous.
durvasa, how do you feel about the benching of Asik (probably the Rockets' second best player) during crunch time? Do you think "riding the hot hand" is a smart strategy (disregarding for the moment what constitutes "hot" or if it even exists)?
That has no value. No one cares what peoples personal stats are in the final minutes. How you play vs. your opponent is what matters.
Are you asking for me to draw inferences from the stats, or to explain what the stats mean? To me, it was interesting because it shows who's been the floor most frequently during these moments, and also how successful the team has been overall with them on the floor. It doesn't tell you what the optimal lineup is directly, obviously. But its something to consider before being dead set on the idea that certain players HAVE to be on the floor or we'll suck.
Yea it's just an advanced stat that if we could improve slightly would help grab a couple extra wins. Don't think he's bashing anyone in the "clutch." Thanks for those stats. Interesting bc I'd thought the +\- would have been better, but it's probably because of our lack of D.
One thing that's striking to me: the Rockets really haven't spent many minutes in "clutch time." The starters only got 40-60 minutes of clutch play. 66 total minute for the whole team. Contrast that with: http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerClutch.html?sortField=GP&sortOrder=DES Pierce: 194 Clutch time minutes Lawson 156 Aldridge 151 DeRozan 177 Etc... Edit: wait a minute. The link I had showed Harden being in 108 clutch minutes. Not sure the cause of difference.
+ / - is such a useless stat. This and that thread the other guy posted to try to make Lin better use data that have little to no value. Even despite the TINY sample size, so many different factors come into play that make +/- a terrible metric to base performance off of. Most notably, what the other players on the floor are doing. Who's hot, how your teammates are playing defense, etc. Case in point: Harden has been far and away our best player... not a single rational person will dispute that, and according to this post he has a +/- of -12. Only a fool looks at that and says, "-12? He shouldn't play in the clutch." I don't understand why everyone on this board is trying to skew stats to make certain players look better/worse. I just want the Rockets to win. Showing stats like this doesn't suddenly make the coaching staff say, "you know, that random poster is right, let's play this person now"... so why bother?
I totally agree with what you are saying. So why does this stupid thread have 5 stars? Just because "contributing members" think it is good? smh The reason for JLin to play in the closing of minutes of games is because he was brought in by the team ownership to be the PG they wanted to grow and groom as a leader. You can't develop him by sitting him entire 4th quarters of games because of this reason or that reason. The only thing you will do with that is "maybe" destroy his confidence, or lesson his trade value down the road. So whatever McHale's reasoning for sitting Lin so much especially in the 4th quarter, he is hurting the ORGANIZATION by not letting Lin play 38 plus minutes a night by hurting his growth or trade value.
