Personally, I think the best prospects are Tim Ohlbrecht, Thomas Robinson and Royce White, primarily because they are the ones not really considered soft among the stable. The ditching of PPat and Mook Morris just proves that offensive skills do not win you the spot. Both can shoot long range, Mook can score and has a vast offensive arsenal. So same thing will go with D-Mo. He may have the post skills and the outside shot, but if he keeps playing soft and cannot hold his own defensively down low, he's not going to last. The big man has to bang and I think Ohlbrecht is the best combination of offense-defense-and willingness to play like a man in the paint. D-Mo has the moves and the outside shot, but he worships his speed too much and still has to grow into a man in the paint. He's still like a boy that the men can shove aside down low. Terrence Jones looks lost but he's a true versatile player, he's got a very nice combination of everything but I think he still just needs to mature as a player. I have the impression that the coaches are not able to trust or count on him as much. Greg Smith was a project to begin with and may not really have that high a ceiling. His obedience and coachability may be his best trait but he still needs to mature as a player as his cluelessness sometimes shines thru. And he keeps losing his shoe! Royce White is talented and all, but we all know about the issues about him and is sometimes too in love with his playmaking, too much in love with that fancy pass, not to mention he has a lot of maturing to do as well. His big ego may be his greatest obstacle not his mental illness. Thomas Robinson brings a lot of nice things to the table but if he does not learn how to hold his own defensively he may never get to see the court that much at all. He comes with the reputation of energy, motor, speed and rebounding but he also comes with the reputation of bad defense. Again he may have a lot of good traits or skills and all, but if he can't be counted on to and does not defend, he's not going to see the floor and get minutes. Tim Ohlbrecht is a virtual unknown right now. But he may be the reason Morey was not afraid to give up 3 big men and only bring back 1 in return. A D-League All-Star, he's the best combination of size-athleticism-versatility-outside range-big man defensive skills-offense-and BANGING associated with the Rockets right now. So you've got to wonder why he'd turn down a 10 day contract with the Celtics. Is he joining the Rockets? Now after the loss of PPat, Cole and Mook and also with the injury scare with Greg Smith, it's apparent how thin we are at C. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Tim-Ohlbrecht-536/ http://www.nbadraft.net/players/tim-ohlbrecht McHale must hate his spot right now having lost the very guys he can count on to defend properly as a big and not give up points that easily. But he has no choice but make the most of what he has right now. Interesting how the season will turn out in terms of the Rocket's search for their "big man" at the 4. Delfino can be a nice option as the "4" for "small ball" but in a lot of cases this will obviously not work. Just hope and pray nothing bad happens to Asik or else we're absolutely fugged.
Royce White is not one of out top prospects at any position. I like your analysis on Ohlbrecht and T-Rob, but White won't amount to anything. In my opinion, Motiejunas is better than White, who just passes flashy.
PPat and Morris had very limited offensive skillsets in game. PPat's post game was all but non-existent. Morris' face-up game and post skills were lauded coming into the draft, but that proved false--his only really strong offensive skill is making open three pointers. It's a fallacy to say that those two guys proved "offensive skills do not win you the spot", because they only had one skill--knocking down open J's. Donatas Motiejunas is one of our two best prospects because he has a versatile and multifaceted game and most importantly he can score while being guarded. He has a post game, a face-up game, pick and roll game, he can run the floor, and he at least shows strong signs of developing the ability to hit open jumpers. The ability to score at high efficiency while being guarded is probably the most prized ability in the entire NBA. Motiejunas is the only young big man we have who shows that ability. PPat did not show that ability. Morris did not show that ability. Now, you can make up for lacking that ability by being good at nearly every other thing; for example, Dwight Howard in his early 20s was still an immensely valuable player despite having almost zero offensive skill because he was super-athletic, strong, high motor, great defensive instincts, etc. So in that way, you can become an all-star as a big man with little offensive skill. Maybe Thomas Robinson can become that kind of all-star; that's the only argument he has over Motiejunas, and it's a pretty good one, because he does have great athleticism, strength, motor, rebounding skills... he needs to get better at defense and making the easy buckets and his value will skyrocket. But don't ignore D-Mo. Just because he's a highly skilled offensive player does not mean he can't develop defense and rebounding. I would give him a slight edge over Robinson at the moment but they're very close.
I don't know who will pan out, but I hope that D-Mo, Smith and Robinson do. I think those 3 and Asik will give us a damn good 4 and 5 front-court for a long time.
I think Smith will pan out (if by pan out you mean become an established NBA player) His biggest flaw is his fouling defense.. but as Ultramagnus says he is coachable, looking at you ROYCE, and young.. This will improve, he is a beast offensively when given a chance and just needs to extend his range to become a true threat DMo needs to get bigger (which he is doing) and learn the rotations a little bit (which he is doing), very exciting development already from him... His rebounding should come with the increased weight and power I'm reserving judgement on TRob until i see him work. TJ and Ohlbrecht have no sample size to evaluate At this rate, Royce is destined to either be cut or traded (as soon as Morey finds a suitable deal for him)
Greg Smith is already very close to panning out if he already hasn't. Motiejunas is already very close to panning out. Robinson is a higher risk to not panning out, but has higher potential.
To me, panning out means being at least near-all-star-level. And by that I mean David West, Nene level of impact(not necessarily same style) and ideally star level player, ala Pau Gasol/Chris Bosh level. The Rockets don't need more role players. Morey can pull role players out of his ass any time he wants. We need stars. In that sense, Greg Smith, Ohlbrecht, Royce White have together 0.01% chance to pan out. With 0.01% margin of error. And really all of that belongs to White, in case he actually starts to care about basketball again, the odds of which I put at 0.01% chance. DMo probably has ~10% chance of reaching near-star level, maybe 5% chance at all-star level. Robinson probably has ~10% chance of reaching near-star level, and 1% chance of reaching all-star level.
The answer is obvious. D-Mo. He is far ahead of any of the other so called candidates. So far ahead in fact that I cannot even believe there is a poll. See http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7672585&postcount=75
You only give DMO a 10% chance? That's pretty low for a player of his height and skillset (he has a good motor, great range for his position and decent post ability) I think he has 40-50% chance and i feel conservative with that figure. I have a sneaking suspicion his Achilles heel will be rebounding (maxing at about 6-7 a game)
right now? d-mo in the next year? i think terrance jones could really pan out. remember, he was our best rookie in vegas along with jeremy lamb. still don't enough about thomas robinson to comment.
Depends on what you mean by "pan out." If you mean being a rotation player in the NBA, Smith, Motiejunas, and Robinson already are. Jones will likely be one. White is very unlikely. If you mean being a star level player, Motiejunas and Robinson are the most likely ones. Smith is very unlikely. Jones hasn't shown me anything really special. To be a star level player, you have to be special in some facet of the game, not just solid. To be honest, if none of these guys turn out to be a star player, I'll be very disappointed. Just like meh said, we don't need more role players. Morey can snatch those up in his sleep. We need more stars. I know very little about Ohlbrecht.
I'd be happy if one panned out into a borderline star and a couple into solid rotational players. Flip the ones you don't need for more picks, otherwise keep the ones that are contributing valuably on their rookie scales. We have enough capspace to actually sign a legitimate all-star to complement Harden.
I think most of them (with the exception of White and Ohlbrecht) will at the very least become rotation bigs in the NBA. -Right now D-Mo shows the most promising upside, and has proven talent, but Robinson was rated the highest coming into the draft. Those two seem to have the most ability to become something more than just a rotation NBA player. Robinson right now should be viewed as a rookie draft pick. The unknowns for him right now are through the roof, and only time will tell what kind of player he's going to end up being. -Jones, and Smith have the size, athleticism, and skill level to at the very least be rotation NBA players. They have proven themselves in the offseason, Summer league, D-League, and in the minutes they have received so far in the NBA. I see no reason why they wouldn't have long careers in the association. -Ohlbrecht(not technically a Rocket), and Royce White are the two biggest wildcards here. Both players could be out of the league or playing overseas as early as next year, or both players could get their chance in the NBA, and do well. Chances are the odds of them having a long NBA career are not good right now.
Just thought I would point this out. Over the last 4 games DMo's per 36 minutes numbers are: 22.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.6 apg I will take those numbers any day of the week
Donatas Motiejunas. Have we already forgotten how good it can be to just dump the ball inside? He is EXTREMELY versatile.
DMo is a real bonified young star in waiting. He's the real deal. Sadly I haven't seen enough of Robinson to have that same confidence in his development, but i watched him a lot in college and its clear that his workman-like mentality, athleticism, speed, toughness, and motor have a chance to carry him extremely far. I personally think Jones is underrated and strongly believe that he has almost as much upside as DMo. But clearly he's further behind in his development. I'm hopeful he continues to work on his game over the summer, and gets minutes next year ala Morris and Greg Smith, because he's got the talent to be a starter in this league. Greg Smith is a nice young player with great size and athleticism. He's not a center, he's a power forward. He's got a very developed post game. He can rebound and blok shots' but he doesn't do it consistently. Same with his defense. He played excellent defense last night, but he often blows rotation assignments and is inconsistant. He has the size and strength to neutralize bigger 4s and 5s. Royce White shouldn't really be mentioned in the same breath as these other guys. These other guys are working hard to become better, while Royce needs to decide if he wants to be a professional basketball player. At least one of these guys will need to be moved beore next season. All except Royce, who doesn't really count, are at the point where they need game minutes to take the next step. That's impossible with the depth that we currently have at the position. I'm very excited about this crop of young talent. In 2 years DMo will be considered on of the best young PFs in the league. It will be interesting to see what happens with the others. It's a good problem to have.
Just by the seat of my pants I will play "forecast the future": Player......Rotation..Starter...Near All-star.....All-star White.......35%.......8%.......2%..................0% Smith.......80%.......10%......0%.................0% TJ...........90%........40% .....5%.................1% T-Rob......100%......75%......20%................5% D-Mo.......100%......100%....30%................10%
