ESPN The Magazine has an "Analytics" issue coming out soon. There is a feature on Bob Voulgaris, a well-known NBA gambler, that is now online. Interesting read: http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler Voulgaris is active on Twitter and highly opinionated, BTW, so if you're curious on his general thoughts on teams, coaches, players, refs, etc., you can follow him.
If you are interested and want to read more about Haralabob in the form of a message board Q&A, check this out: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19/high-stakes-pl-nl/well-haralabos-voulgaris-bob-763371/ His screen name is 'coltranedog'.
Just had a chat with him last night after the rockets/nets game.. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>@<a href="https://twitter.com/haralabob">haralabob</a> @<a href="https://twitter.com/jm1450">jm1450</a> Has Manu ever had a season where he had better averages than what Harden is putting up now?</p>— Marco M (@newagerocket) <a href="https://twitter.com/newagerocket/status/305157067176558593">February 23, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>@<a href="https://twitter.com/newagerocket">newagerocket</a> You are doing it wrong. Pace matters, minutes matter.</p>— Haralabos Voulgaris (@haralabob) <a href="https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/305160534158868480">February 23, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>@<a href="https://twitter.com/newagerocket">newagerocket</a> I don't disagree, just saying if he matches Manu's career it'll be a good career. Manu is awesome</p>— Haralabos Voulgaris (@haralabob) <a href="https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/305167438645977089">February 23, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>@<a href="https://twitter.com/suicideduece9">suicideduece9</a> @<a href="https://twitter.com/haralabob">haralabob</a> We shouldn't compare or set ceilings then.</p>— Marco M (@newagerocket) <a href="https://twitter.com/newagerocket/status/305167331313717249">February 23, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>The 2013 Rockets are easily the most enjoyable NBA team to watch, haven't had this much fun watching a team since the 2007 GS Warriors</p>— Haralabos Voulgaris (@haralabob) <a href="https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/305125564304457728">February 23, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The big thing about Manu is that he came into the NBA at age 25 then took some time after that to adjust to the NBA game. So by the time he was producing at a really high level he was already age 27. Harden is already doing it at age 23. Manu also played under 30mpg for all but 2 seasons in his career due to the way the Spurs used him. So even if this is as good as Harden ever gets, he should wind up having a better overall career than Manu simply on the basis of getting started earlier and being featured in a more prominent role (thus getting more minutes to shine). I don't disagree that if Harden only ever equals Manu's production on a per-minute basis, then that will be a great career. However, it makes a huge difference if he's doing it in 36 minutes per game over 1400 games instead of 28 minutes per game over 800 games. Both on a per-game basis (getting 36 minutes out of your guy is more valuable than getting 28) and historically when we look back over his entire career (he will have produced a larger quantity of NBA value). All this is contingent on staying healthy and not having any weird collapse, of course... knock on wood.
Manu is an advanced stats favorite. When he plays, he dominates at an elite level. At a Wade, Kobe level. I love Haralabob. Fantastic follow. Knowledgable about the game.
But he never plays as many minutes as Wade and Kobe...or Harden. You can't extrapolate Manu's production out to 38 mpg, otherwise Popovich would have played him that many minutes. Pops plays him less than 30 to keep him at a high level of performance. Saying Manu's <30mpg translates to Wade and Kobe's actual production at 38mpg, is assuming Wade and Kobe's production at Manu's rested minutes don't explode to well over 30+ PER. Look at it in reverse. Kobe and Wade playing 28mpg, most of which against 2nd teams, their PER would be off the charts...>30...way past Ginobili's. Fact is: Popovich is the best coach in the NBA right now, and he thinks Manu is most effective at limited minutes; otherwise, it would be just silly not to give him 38mpg ... and certainly in the playoffs. btw: Manu's numbers go down in the playoffs with more minutes.
That is fair. Manu's production in his 30 minutes per game is insane though. Superstar level. His advanced stats like RAPM are fantastic. And he closes games really well. While, like HArden he does benefit from playing against second units, he still closes games and is really really good. Hell, Pop started him in the playoffs and he kept the Spurs in it against the Thunder. But yeah, the minutes thing will keep him a tier level under Wade and Kobe. I don't disagree there.
I agree. And maybe on a different team where he gets 36-38mpg he would still produce at a high level...and lead them to victory like Harden. But unfortunately, we will never know, because Pops chose to keep his minutes low but at high efficiency to complement the great Duncan, and they won twice doing that. Let's just please don't assume that Wade and Kobe's PER and all other efficiency stats wouldn't be off the charts as a 6th man like Ginobody.
