Do you think we will see a Nuke used as a weapon any time soon? I am not hoping for it but I just cannot imagine it happening anytime soon I dunno if any country is willing to 'go there' We fear Iran and Korea will but . . .for all their blustering etc They have to know . .they drop one .. they will be completely and totally erased from history Rocket River Does mutually assured destruction work?
No country may be willing to go there. A 3rd party with a dirty nuke seems more likely and hopefully that's still a slim to none chance.
As nuclear proliferation increases, I certainly see it happening as it only takes one bad actor to set one off. Throw in any instability of current world powers and you'll see smaller countries that rely on allies for protection to strive to acquire them for protection as well. Assuming the country where the nuke got deployed has nukes as well, I'm not sure they fire in retaliation assuming only one/few go off. The risk that comes with total nuclear war is too great. For instance, if the US gets nuked in non-major metropolitan area, do you think we would go balls to the wall in nuclear retaliation?
Pakistan seems like the most unstable country with a nuke. So if its going to happen, it'll happen from there. And if its India they nuke, I don't think India has the will power to hold back.
I agree with the other posters that as more and more countries get nukes there is a greater possibility of them being used. I think most likely in the possibility of a nuke falling into third party hands or else in a situation of a tactical nuke being used on a battlefield rather than targeting a major population. Another thing to consider is the possibility of a very specialized use of a nuke. Early in the war on terror the GW Bush Admin. started up research in nuclear bunker busters that would be used against caves hiding Al Qaeda and / or hardened facilities by countries like NK. This research was dropped in the second term.
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I doubt it. The PRC and Japan are both too interested in trade and economic development to go to war with each other. India and Pakistan seems more likely for war, including nukes to break out. Pakistani based militants have carried out attacks in India and the armies still occasionally exchange fire in Kashmir. Pakistan is also far less stable than India, PRC, or Japan.
Call me crazy but i thinks Nukes are simply a symbol of power nowadays. Seems to me like countries think that if they have one then no one messes with them. However i'm only taking about governments. Terrorist groups on the other hand scare the crap out of me.
That's the logical answer, but China has historically favored unification over logic. If the stalling ends and Japan is committed to going eye-for-eye with China on the territorial dispute, then this could indeed blow up into something much bigger that could bring the U.S. into the fray and in turn, nukes. However, like you said, the unstable relations between India and Pakistan have a larger chance of causing war between them. It's likely that China and Japan continue to stall long enough for the old guard to be replaced with a more forward-thinking generation of leaders.
