ClutchFans 2013 NBA Trade Deadline Countdown Timer

I do not think there will be a big trade (but who know with Morey). I think we at least get a 1st round pick somehow.

 

I'll take JJ Redick, please
we'll rain transition threes!

Or Nicolas Batum
could make us go ba-boom!

But if you go D-Ho,
then Morey, you must go!

 

Here is what we know. 3 types of trades can happen this Thursday night for the Rockets-

Most likely to least likely-

1. Short term cap using trade to acquire salary for assets in return. Maybe something like Rip Hamilton & a late 1st rounder for Tony Douglas or something like that. Also watch out for Sam Dalembert and the Bucks as Bima alluded to the other day.

I assume there are a couple of trade scenarios on the board already that will happen at the last minute if all other deals fall apart for both the Rockets and the other teams. These deals are structured to help the Rockets in preparation for this Summer where they are setup with more assets to trade for star #2 first and foremost. Any short term help on the basketball court they can get is a bonus.

2. Short term move that helps on the basketball court, but doesn't put them in a bind financially moving forward. Im looking at guys like Paul Milsap and Josh Smith here. Possibly even Danny Granger as well(although he has another year after this one on his contract).

There might be a way that Morey believes he can take a player on an expiring or short term contract that can help out this year, and stilll retain flexibility to either A. Acquire assets for these guys next Summer in a sign and trade if they do not wish to retain their services, or B. Possibly resign them next Summer if Superstar #2 does not happen, and they are happy with the team moving forward.

3. Superstar move. Least likely, but there is no reason NOT to put offers on the table, and maybe at the last minute, that GM calls you back and says that they want to entertain this offer. It happened with James Harden when it was not expected, so what does it hurt for Morey to have called Kahn with the T-Wolves with a structure of a deal for Kevin Love he would say "just for kicks" and plant the seed for future talks.

Im sure most of these trade talks start off VERY informal.... like maybe at Kenny Smiths party during all star weekend after a few drinks.... who knows, but dont think for a minute that Morey hasn't been trying to plant seeds with other GM's for months in the hope that maybe they have a change of heart at some point. They aren't likely to happen but its nieve to think that they ARENT out there at least informally. They are out there enough to make a team like Houston wait till the last hour before the deadline to go through trade scenario #1.

 

If I were Morey I would try and extort a really good piece out of Charlotte to take on Ben Gordon's contract and then route it along with our youngsters to Minny or Portland to grab LMA or Love.

 

If we got Rip + first round pick I'd count that as a huge victory. Hell, I'd even take a 2nd round pick. Why not? I think he could fit well into our team, and who wouldn't want a (first round) pick?

 

Dobro, I agree that Rockets are trying very hard at multiple of the number 1 type trade. They'll look at 2 and 3 type trades. I would like to add a forth possibility. The Rockets may also trade players with years left for one or more players with years left as long as 2013 cap space isn't negatively impacted. Rockets could easily trade a power forward for a wing or a point. Delfino and Douglas could be traded in a scenario 1 trade.

 

I could see Morey trading for Rip Hamilton to get a draft pick. He will definitely try to get this pick, but I HIGHLY doubt the Bulls would bite...

2013 first round draft pick from Charlotte
Charlotte's own 2013 1st round draft pick to Chicago (top-12 protected in the 2013 Draft, top-10 protected in 2014, top-8 protected in 2015 and unprotected in the 2016 Draft.) [Charlotte - Chicago, 2/18/2010]

 

Mozgov and Hamilton then

 

Good post. You might be right with this analysis. However, my take is that Daryl Morey's game plan is to hold on to the core players, allow them to continue to develop chemistry (on and off the floor), strengthen the brand, accumulate a few more desirable assets (e.g., draft picks, cheap young players), win as many games this season and next season, and, maybe most importantly, make sure that the team will have a massive ($20+ mil) amount of cap space during the summer of 2014, not the summer of 2013, so the Rockets can attempt to lure Lebron James away from Miami. Lebron will be a free agent during the summer of 2014. I believe that Morey's Lebron strategy is "Build it, and He will come." Very sensible strategy, by the way, as Lebron is very likely going to sign with whoever he perceives to be the most well-managed organization with the best supporting cast.

Therefore, it makes sense for the Rockets, prior to the 2/21 deadline, to acquire a really good veteran or two whose contract(s) will expire at the end of next season. Shawn Marion and Marcin Gortat are the two most obvious examples of players who fit this profile. Marion and/or Gortat allows you to accomplish all of the goals set forth above.

Also, players who fit this profile do actually have value, so if a Kevin Love becomes available between June 2013 and the February 2014 trade deadline (i.e., after the February 2013 trade deadline but before the 2014 free agency period), Houston would nonetheless be able to put together an attractive package, even if they don't have cap space, because all teams would be interested in a Shawn Marion or a Marcin Gortat, as they are both very good ballplayers and there is no long term financial commitment. What seems to be lost on a lot of Rockets fans is that Kevin Martin fit this exact profile (i.e., very good but expensive veteran on the last year of his contract), and that did not stop the Rockets from getting James Harden. Kevin Martin makes nearly $13 mil this season! However, Martin's contract expires at the end of the season; if it didn't, Harden would not be wearing a Rockets uniform right now. Marion and Gortat make a fair amount less than $13 mil in 2013-14.

Also, I think that many, maybe most, Rockets fans, and NBA fans, in general, confuse the terms cap space and cap flexibility. If you have $15 mil in cap space, then you can just go right out and spend the $15 mil on one or more free agents, or you can absorb $15 mil worth of players via trade. Cap space is fine, but it doesn't really matter if you just wind up blowing it all. The Pistons had a large amount of cap space several summers ago, and they infamously blew it all on Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. Lebron would probably still be wearing a Cavs uniform if management didn't go out one summer and blow its massive amount of cap space on Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones, none of whom were particularly good players at the time.

Cap flexibility is something different. Cap flexibility means that you have options, that you have pieces that other teams will take in a heartbeat; in other words, you're "flexible." So you need to clear $9 mil in cap space? There's a team with $9 mil in cap space who would take Shawn Marion in a heartbeat. Or you can easily move Omer Asik. Or Jeremy Lin. Despite James Harden's large salary, he can be easily moved. It's okay if you don't have cap SPACE, so long as you're flexible. In fact, the goal is to have flexibility, and to ALWAYS have flexibility, so you can easily move pieces around, if necessary. Which means that you always are seeking VALUE in players, i.e., you don't want to pay Brook Lopez $15-$16 mil/year when you can instead pay Omer Asik $8 mil/year.

So, my point here is that I think most of you guys misunderstood Daryl Morey's recent interview, when he was talking about his roster-building philosophy. He was presumably using the term "cap flexibility," but most of you guys heard "cap space." These are two related but ultimately different concepts. [To be fair, I didn't read/listen to the interview, so if he was actually using the term "cap SPACE," I apologize. Although, even if he was using the term "cap space," I still think I'm right about what he's trying to do here.]

In any event, if the Rockets don't trade for a player or two who fits the Marion/Gortat profile, then I think they will make one, maybe two of the sorts of trades you have proposed above, in your List #1. It's worth pointing out that if Chicago cannot pull off the Boozer-Bargnani deal with Toronto, due to Toronto's unwillingness to take on additional salary, then the Bulls will surely look to send Richard Hamilton along with a lottery-protected first round pick to a team that has the cap space to absorb the contract, such as Houston, in exchange for basically nothing (e.g., James Anderson).

No one has pointed this out, but I have to think that Houston would want to trade Greg Smith for something like a projected early second round pick, too. If you make the trade with a poorly managed team, such as the Suns or the Bobcats, then you are pretty much guaranteeing yourself a high second round pick, because these sorts of teams will suck, big time, for the foreseeable future.

I also think that Houston would take back a 2013 projected late first round pick, and probably even a 2013 projected very early second round pick, for Marcus Morris, who can probably be easily and immediately replaced in the rotation by either Donatas Motiejunas or Terrence Jones (probably Motiejunas). Houston would presumably get back a player who makes around $1.5-$1.75 mil this season but whose contract, unlike Morris' contract, expires at the end of this season. Of course, if Houston trades for a Marion and/or a Gortat, then Morris would likely be included in such a trade (e.g., Morris and Toney Douglas for Gortat and filler, probably either Sebastian Telfair or Jermaine O'Neal).

 

This has been the quietest trade deadline ever

 

rogower, while your post (and overall strategy posted elsewhere on this BBS) is well-thought-out, I respectfully disagree that making any such trade BEFORE THIS WEEK'S DEADLINE is in any way, shape or form in the Rockets' plans.

(Also, from reading this and other posts of yours, I think you have WAY too high an opinion of Shawn Marion's contract. It is not nearly the "asset" that you make it out to be; and I'm guessing that the Mavs will either be stuck with it or will pay another team handsomely to take it off their hands.)

Why would the Rockets hamstring themselves with a bloated non-star's contract--even if just through next year--as long as there was even a scintilla of hope of getting Dwight Howard in free agency this summer?

Wouldn't it make infinitely more sense to avoid taking on salary beyond this summer at the deadline, then go into the summer with the goal to sign Dwight Howard or Chris Paul, THEN if/when that fails, go out and trade for such types of contracts???

For instance, assuming he gets healthy, I think the Rockets should trade for Pau Gasol this summer if they strike out with Howard and Paul. He would give the Rockets the same flexibility that Marion would (well, not quite, given the large size of his contract) but would also be a significantly better addition to the roster. The Rockets would be a legit mid-seed playoff team at worst with a healthy Pau. Plus, they'd have the flexibility to still pursue Lebron and other marquee free agents in 2014.

Still, I really like the thought you put into your posts. Keep it up! I'm sure we'll disagree on other matters. But I like the level of intelligence in your posts.

 

The advanced stats I've looked at suggest that Shawn Marion is one of the league's best players, which means that he is most definitely one of the league's most underrated players. Dallas was competitive before they got Dirk Nowitzki back, and Marion was a very big reason why. Marion is a huge upgrade over Patrick Patterson. Also, don't forget that Kevin Martin is making nearly $13 mil this season, yet Houston was still able to acquire James Harden. Marion at just over $9 mil (that's what he's getting next season, when his contract will be an expiring contract) is probably a more valuable asset than Martin at just under $13 mil.

But you are right that Dallas is motivated to move Marion's contract, and will take back basically nothing in return, as they seem to value the $9+ mil in cap space that they'd get by dumping Marion more than Marion himself. And it appears to me that Daryl Morey is always looking to get something for nothing, and that if the very good Marion can be acquired for basically nothing, Morey has to be interested.

Well, according to advanced stats, Shawn Marion IS a star! Also, I believe that Morey is also interested in building up the Rockets brand, and the best way to do that is to win basketball games. If you can get Shawn Marion for basically nothing (e.g., Patrick Patterson and expiring contracts), then you are going to win more basketball games THIS season, not to mention next season. Obviously Morey is not going to sacrifice valuable assets just so he can lock down, say, the #6 seed in the West this season, but Patterson isn't a particularly valuable asset, and neither are the expiring contracts currently on the roster. [If Patterson is still on the roster past 2/21 then I expect Morey to attempt to trade Patterson in June/July for a draft pick.]

Mainly, I completely disagree that the goal is to attempt to sign Dwight Howard or Chris Paul. I think that well-managed teams at this point are steering clear of Howard. Howard is a ridiculous human being, a clown. Howard is, at best, an extremely immature person; at worst, he is mentally ill. He just isn't worth the hassle. Character matters; work ethic matters; teamwork matters. I know this sounds cheesy but it's true. Dudes like Dwight Howard just aren't worth it. You win with winners and you lose with losers. And Dwight Howard is a loser. I'm not sure what has happened to that dude over the past year and a half. Maybe he's always been this way but he just wasn't getting much media scrutiny.

Also, while Houston, or any team, would jump at the chance to sign Chris Paul, I'd say there is a 100% chance that he re-signs with the Clippers. That team is a championship contender, he's getting way more money from endorsements, he likes his teammates, and, maybe most importantly, the Clippers are going to be both willing and able to give him more money, a LOT more money, than anybody else. In my opinion, the only reason why his agent puts this idea out there that he might not re-sign is to pressure Donald Sterling, one of the all-time cheapskates in pro sports, to do what it takes to win a championship, even if that means paying the luxury tax. And this strategy appears to be working for Paul.

I just don't think a well-managed organization or company makes goals that are not achievable, basically. If I am going to put together a car wash to raise money for, say, some local high school kids who are trying to go on some trip to Europe or something, my goal is not to raise $100 billion. I'm not going to raise $100 billion. Obviously, if somebody wants to write me a check for $100 billion, I'll take it. If I open up a taco stand, my goal is not to become a Fortune 500 company. If that happens, great, but I am going to focus on what I believe to be achievable goals. If Chris Paul falls into Houston's lap, sure, they'll take the guy. But I just cannot understand why the Rockets would turn down an opportunity (such as Marion) just so they'd have a 0.01% chance at acquiring Chris Paul. And I realize that you and many others believe that this is what Morey's strategy is but I guess I obviously disagree with you. I've stated what I think Morey's strategy is: to win ballgames, to hold on to and develop your core, to maintain cap flexibility, and, in July 2014, to sign Lebron James. He can't come right out and say it because he doesn't want to be accused of tampering.

IF Morey turns down dudes like Marion and Gortat just so he can find himself sitting on a bunch of cap space this summer, I don't think it's because he believes he has a legitimate chance at getting Paul, or is going to make a play for Howard. I think it will be because he wants to be sitting there with cap space, waiting for an opportunity to present itself. And, again, maybe that's what Morey is going to do. Obviously we are going to find out over the next three days!

IF Morey is intent on having as much cap space as possible this summer, I think it might be because of...

Acquiring Pau Gasol is an achievable goal, as the Lakers are well over the luxury tax threshold and would save themselves a massive, MASSIVE amount of money in 2013-14 by dumping Gasol's massive contract onto a team with a massive amount of cap space. Houston would be able to get Gasol for basically nothing. If Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris are still on the roster after 2/21, then I think Houston can get Gasol for Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris, and nothing else, assuming they have enough cap space. That is how motivated the Lakers will be to avoid the luxury tax.

Although I am going to have to go back to Marion, and how advanced stats suggest that he is one of the league's best players, and maybe the league's most undervalued asset. Marion is having a much, much better season than Gasol. And I love Pau Gasol. But Marion's been better, and that was before Gasol got hurt. Morey is an expert at managing the cap, at exploiting inefficiencies, at being an opportunist, at anticipating developments. But he's also got one hell of a player evaluation team, who pay a whole lot of attention to advanced stats. That's why he knew that Omer Asik was going to be a good starter. And I have to think that he and his staff are aware that Shawn Marion is really good, and would be able to step right in at the stretch four position and immediately improve the team on both ends of the floor.

And, like you point out, Pau Gasol is super expensive! If you use up all of your cap space to get Gasol, well, you've used up all of your cap space! To get a guy who may or may not be able to play alongside Omer Asik! Why not get a guy who is a hell of a lot cheaper (Marion) and who will for sure be able to play alongside Asik?

Thanks!

 

That, could quite possibly be a good thing.

 

I'm not expecting anything major. Probably a move that sends Patterson or Morris somewhere, Aldrich probably gets traded for a pick, maybe Douglas gets traded to Boston.

 

so true

yes please

 

This trade deadline has been relatively quiet. Usually there are several rumor threads in the weeks leading up.

 

Maybe he will break the walls down?

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1164/monta-ellis

Monta off the bench anyone?

 

kinda hope we don't trade anyone... the team is exciting to watch and we are not making a run for a championship. Rather have my rocket entertainment value with this young dumb and ready to run team then get some new faces to mess it up.