I'd like to consider this an offshoot of the main Spring Training thread. So... this was Brian T. Smith's projected Opening Day rotation. Bud Norris Lucas Harrell Jordan Lyles Philip Humber Erik Bedard However, Jeff Luhnow's deals from this offseason have added John Ely, Brad Peacock, Alex White, three pitchers who have experience as starters in a major league rotation. Dallas Keuchel made 16 starts last season. Edgar Gonzalez had 6 starts late last season and is a non-roster invitee. Kyle Weiland made 3 starts before being lost for the season. Also, there are 6 pitchers on the current 40-man roster that have had experience starting in the minors. Not to mention that Luhnow's deals have really brought a great deal of depth in starting pitchers in the upper minors. And so, with that said... who will be the 5 guys that will make up the Houston Astros' starting rotation come March 31?
Humber, Norris, and Bedard are definitely starting. Houston will be looking to trade Bedard at the deadline if healthy imo.
Harrell Lyles Humber Bedard Ely + White in the pen Norris will be traded before the season starts (based on no info)
Philip Humber and Erik Bedard should not start. I do not see the point in having them start for half a season, hoping they perform well enough to be traded for *prospects* at the July deadline. The Astros farm is now fairly well stocked with prospects. What they really need is for their MLB ready prospects to get MLB experience. Alex White, Brad Peacock and John Ely need to compete for the last two spots in the rotation, with the loser getting sent to the pen or AAA. I chose White and Ely since they have nothing left to prove at AAA, while Peacock does.
Harrell and Lyles are locks barring a trade. I think Norris is traded or moved to the bullpen. Obviously one of our top 5 starters, but depth in the rotation means parts have to be moved around. I think Bedard should start as long as he does well in ST. He's been an ace in the majors, which nobody else on this roster can say. After that, I'm going with Ely and White to fill those last 2 spots. If Norris is starting, I'd take Ely out.
We could always use better near ready guys or high upside guys in the low levels that won't cost us a 40-man spot.
I don't think Norris moves to the pen...because if he's not traded, he's gonna be showcased as a potential starter (to be traded), no? Either that, or I guess a closer. But I would think he's more likely to be traded as a starter given his history
Norris is more valuable as starter so I definitely agree. I expect he'll have a breakout year and solidify himself as a good number three starter.
To date, Ely and White have had zero success at the MLB level. They're going to need to show something this Spring to have a chance, otherwise they need to be in AAA correcting their deficiencies.
Makes sense but ... If you take into consideration all of Luhnow's recent trades, the Astros have added ~20 players into the farm system. Most of which play A ball or above. For example as you know, the starting pitching is so crowded in AA and AAA that 20 pitchers are competing for 10 spots. It make more sense to me now to have the current set of prospects sort in out in AA and AAA. The Astros might be interested in younger prospects but again after the 2012 draft and upcoming 2013 draft the three short summer leagues are going to be crowded with talent. Back to my original argument, giving a veteran player PT in order to build trade value is a tradeoff versus developing MLB ready prospects. Neither trade is a slam dunk. Veteran players can tank and prospects can flop.
It reminds me of the Brett Myers situation last year. To our team I think he is more valuable in the starting rotation (200 IP vs. 70 IP). Once again there is a glaring hole at the back end of the bullpen, and several guys competing for a spot in the rotation. Also to a contender, Norris may be more valuable as a closer since he would probably be a 4th or 5th starter for most of those teams.
When looking at the numbers Norris put up last year, it is really hard to over look his struggles with the second and third time through a line up. Bud had a SO/BB ratio of 4.17 the first time through and 2.25 the second time through a line up. Even though opponents only saw a .030 increase in batting average, their slugging percentage went up over .100 from the first to second time through. Yes, the 'Stros need inning eaters, and Bud has shown that he can be a successful starter, but I think what is best for bud is to at least try out the pen. He drastically struggled with walks to the lefties, and I think that it would be interesting to see if that persists as a bullpen guy. Also, for what it is worth, Bud only walked 2 lead off batters to start games in 2012 in 29 games pitched while surrendering 3 hits. I think it is worth a shot regardless of how the rest of our pitchers are performing. To not derail the thread, I would like to see Harrell, Bedard, Humber, Lyles, White in the rotation with Dallas or Peacock as the next guy in line.
Harrell Lyles Humber Bedard White I think Morris gets trade soon, if he isn't traded then swap him in for white (that's not my rotation, just the 5 pitchers)
