Dwight Howard Aware That Houston Has Become More Attractive

Couple of things. I know it's already been mentioned but didn't we learn our lesson with McGrady? Talented, gifted, but somehow snakebit with injuries and at crunch time ("it's on me").

And a question. Am I the only one who would rather watch a less talented and gifted player playing hard for his team than said talented and player getting entitled acting when things aren't going his way (ie McGrady/Howard)?

After watching Sunday's LA/Miami game I want no part of Howard. It would be one thing if Kobe was the only one griping on D12 but you've got Nash doing it too. Nash! Freaking Nash!

 

You are wrong.

He makes more with bird rights in LA after taxes. He makes less with no bird rights and no taxes in TX.

I did a mock breakdown using Dwight Howard's numbers, and Crash did one using CP3's numbers. We both came to the same conclusion, you're wrong. He makes more money after taxes in LA with Bird Rights, less money with no taxes in TX with no Bird Rights.

See Crash's detailed breakdown: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=230401&highlight=income

Or you could have read my posts and Crash's posts prior to your response.

Once again, you are wrong. Dwight signing for 1 year in Houston with no bird rights, and then a subsequent 4yr contract is still less money. That is because the 4yr contract would be without bird rights. You don't get bird rights after 1 yr. The lack of taxes does not make up for the lost money from Bird Raises.

And you did not take those factors into your analysis. Crash and I did, and we each found independently that the numbers show you're wrong.

 

See that's the interesting part... I just can't believe that there isn't even ONE trade rumor involving Dwight right now. I just find it hard to believe that there are zero conversations going on right now between Mitch K. and other GM's... most notably Morey and Cuban/Nelson.

You know it would very interesting to wire tap Mitch K's phone line. Most of the time, agents are the ones driving trade rumors. So what we know here is that Dan Fagan obviously isn't trying to drive this hypothetical trade that might or might not be in the works. Otherwise we probably would have probably heard something from him making calls trying to broker a deal with other teams & agents involved.

However, that doesn't mean that Morey and Mitch K. haven't had conversations where both guys know where the offer stands. More than likely Morey has had conversations with Mitch K. where he might say something like -

"If for some reason you decide that its going to be best to move Dwight before the deadline, we would entertain an offer for you centered around X, Y, Z assets. So just keep me in the loop when we get closer to the deadline"

And leave it at that. Mitch K. can say "he's not available right now," but in this case they know EXACTLY what they can get and from which team. They have no reason not to at least listen to the offer. They also have no reason to rush to get other teams involved in this case because they most likely have an offer than can be finalized on the day of the trade deadline if things went that route.

Anyways, I appreciate the replies. I think this is an important conversation to have when we are less than two weeks away from the trade deadline, and this is a deal that could make the Rockets contenders overnight despite fans justified displeasure with Dwight.

I mean, if this Summer someone would have created a thread that was titled "I think its a possibility that Morey could land Dwight Howard and James Harden by the trade deadline in February 2013" people would have laughed that poster right out of the GARM. With a little over a week left until the deadline, I sure hope Morey is at least making an offer.

 

Actually, that might be more if you use the Non-Bird Exception, but that entails greater risk that no player will take of signing for just 1 yr when there's a multi-year contract on the table.

 

Nevermind, the non-Bird exception doesn't apply due to the salary figures. I was right the first time.

 

Lets say he goes to Dallas...If Pau was the best low post presence in LA, Dirk has to be the best in Dallas, but can Dallas piece together the same problem LA is having?

Let's say hypothetically, he comes to Houston...Harden is learning for the first time in his career how to be the main guy and when to take over the game, Wouldnt that mess up chemistry with the way things are going?? Harden and Lin will no longer attack the rim..but will be relegated to being jump shooting guards...and over time, they'll both be worse than they are now...

How about if he went to Brooklyn(Lopez traded), you thought that Joe Johnson and Deron Williams are ineffective now?? Imagine what would happen if they had Howard in that mix...they already are poor long distance shooters, and with Howard they would be forced to be long distance shooters

Maybe Chicago? But Chicago would have to be willing to do a sign and trade with LAL and move Noah, Deng, and Gibson...why would they do that...

Howard is just a misfit, bc he thinks he is a true post player, but in reality, he really is a bigger Amare Stoudemire...He should know that is his biggest strength: Pick and Roll...at this stage of his career...He doesnt have the talent of footwork, or a legit Jumpshot to be effective in the Post(as an inside outside guy)...What happened in ORL isnt happening in LA bc: 1.LA has terrible shooters, 2. Its too clogged in the post, 3.Too many players require the ball to be effective...

 

Howard's stock is in a free fall; I am not nearly as excited about him as I once was. However, the Rockets likely won't pass on him if they can make a deal. The back worries me though. Shades of TMac.

 

I get the feeling if Dwight is happy, his back will make a miraculous recovery

 

I am very happy we have these problems now instead of last year problems.

Also, even with injury concerns during the Yao/McGrady era it still gave us the best shot to win a title in the past 10 years.

As far as odds of winning a title:

Harden + hoping Howard is healthy
>>
Harden + maybe being able to snag LMA or Love in two years
>>
Harden + snagging a Milsap or Smith and then just developing our youngsters.

That is just me though.

 

It's his shoulder by the way.

He'll never be the same player though. Back injuries are notorious for that. Remember Larry Johnson?

 

Major jump to conclusion here...NO way to tell that this will hold true at this point.

 

Morey has repeatedly stated that if a second star were to come along, he would be on board regardless of the position they play.

It's not smart to pass on a Superstar Center in Dwight Howard to fill a bigger position of need in the PF slot. You want to pass on Dwight for the possibility of landing a PF? What if a star PF never comes along?

If a Superstar comes along, you jump on it. Frankly, there are very few players in this league that I think would fit this roster better than Dwight Howard. I think he will be happy here. I think he will get his touches. I think he will improve, and I think he will return to his former self in Houston.

 

Not to mention better coaching mchale actually teaches post up moves unlike dantoni and I'm sure the dream will give him a discount on lessons since he is playing for his former team

 

Yeah, it'll be awesome till he gets hurt year after year....just like the last "superstar" center in Houston. Clearly this fanbase is ready for another superstar center made of glass.

 

I really hope your not comparing d12s health to yaos. d12 is not 7'6 and another center made of glass are you serious d12 is a freak of nature. Just because he has a injury right now does not mean d12s injury prone. His health till this year and physical statue are something Yao can only dream of.

 

In the last 5 years, how many seasons did he play at least 80 games? One. He might be a "freak of nature" but he's a freak of nature that is made of glass.

 

And what about Yao?

 

Dwight Howard's salary for the 2012-2013 season: $19,536,360

When he hits free agency this summer, he will have had 9 seasons under his belt. Normally, the amount that a player can make is capped according to how many season he has under his belt. There 3 tranches, 0-6 yrs of experience, 7-9 yrs of experience, 10+ yrs of experience. In Howard's case, his current salary is already greater than the generic max for a player with 10+ yrs of experience. Thus, we may ignore these restrictions on max salary all together, since the max for the first yr of a player's new contract may never
be less than 105% of the last previous year's salary.

This means that if Houston signs him in the off-season without the benefit of bird rights, the starting salary can start at $20,513,178.00 with then normal non-bird raises of 4.5% each year.

Houston signing Dwight Howard with no bird rights and a max 4yr contract with 4.5% raises
yr1: $20,513,178.00
yr2: $21,436,271.01
yr3: $22,400,903.21
yr4: $23,408,943.85

Now consider the scenario of Dwight Howard signing with the Lakers with bird rights. Bird rights allow you to give 7.5% raises. So the starting salary of 107.5% of his current salary would be $21,001,587.00.

LA signing Dwight Howard with Bird rights and a max 5 yr contract with 7.5% raises
yr1: $21,001,587.00
yr2: $22,576,706.03
yr3: $24,269,958.98
yr4: $26,090,205.90
yr5: $28,046,971.34


Now, lets consider taxes. For convenience sake, let's say that 50% of his salary is attributed to Calfornia/Texas, i.e., the home games. When they're on away games in NY or Chicago, they'll need to pay taxes there. So for convenience, we'll just consider it wash (there are minor conference differences, but those are minor details).

So, 50% of $21,001,587.00 is $10,500,793.50. Now, if we assume the California tax is 13% for incomes over $1M, that means $9,500,793.50 is subject to that tax. This gives us a tax bill of $1,235,103.16 for the first year. For a take home pay of $19,766,483.85.

This $19,766,483.85 is less than the $20,513,178.00 he would make in Houston in the first year. However, due to bird raises, by the fourth year of the contract, the pendulum swings in LA's favor.

In his 4th year, he would make $26,090,205.90 with $1,565,863.38 in taxes, and a take home after-tax pay of $24,524,342.52 in LA. That's more than the $23,408,943.85 he would make in Houston with no taxes.

And when you go over the entire life of the contract, he makes more in California even after taxes.

Here are the taxes he would be paying in California.
yr1: $1,235,103.16
yr2: $1,337,485.89
yr3: $1,447,547.33
yr4: $1,565,863.38
yr5: $1,693,053.14

In his first 4yrs in LA, he will make $93,938,457.90 and pay $5,585,999.76
in taxes, for a take home pay of $88,352,458.14. In Houston, with no tax, he will make $87,759,296.07.

So, you see, he makes more money in LA even after taxes, more than he would in Houston with no taxes.

Now, obviously this is a very rough approximation.

It doesn't take into account the taxes on away games. I just assume that he will pay similar taxes in away games (NY, Chicago, etc.) whether he's in California or Texas, so I'm ignoring that and considering it a wash. The fact that the two teams are in different divisions means there's some differences in the away game taxes, since their away game composition is a bit different as a result of those division differences and that will yield a slight benefit to Houston, but a couple of away games here and there isn't going to be a large difference maker.

And it doesn't consider the fact that the money earned that is less than $1M is also taxed, but at a series of lower rates (not 13%) depending on the tax rate associated with those tax bracket. For example (totally made up), the amount from $0-50K may be taxed at one tax rate, from $50k-100K at another tax rate, etc.

But this rough calculation proves the general point. He will make more money with Bird Rights in LA after taxes, less money with no bird rights in Texas with no taxes.

And this doesn't even consider the 5yr when he will make $28,046,971.34 in LA, no 5th yr in Houston. Nor does it consider the extra endorsement and off-court opportunities he'll get in Hollywood that he won't get in Houston.

 

3 seasons out of 8 at 80 or more games, Dwight has 5 out of 9 seasons (1 in the last 5)

 

Let me guess, you have only watched NBA basketball for five years or less?