With the logjam of pitchers in the upper minors, the Astros can afford to ease their younger arms into pro ball. Adrian Houser and Vince Velasquez will most likely be in Low-A, in the Quad Cities. Lance McCullers could get a shot at starting off in the Quad Cities as well. Tri-City might be a more likely destination, though. Joe Musgrove will probably go to Tri-City after extended spring training, as he only pitched 17 total innings last season. Kevin Comer could join him there, as well. Michael Feliz could be one to watch in the coming years. He's 5 days older than McCullers, and should be at one of the short-season clubs once he leaves extended spring training. I think that it is possible that the two of them could progress through the system in unison.
IIRC Luhnow has said that minor league promotions will be merit based going forward. Players will need to earn their promotions. Times will get interesting if some A+ starting pitchers earn their promotion into AA and its 10 man piggy back rotation. Someone would then have to be sent down or sent to the pen.
I know such trades aren't common, but any chance that the Astros could trade some of their AAA/AAAA pitchers for prospects at other positions? I just don't see what the Astros will do with all those pitchers as the younger ones progress through the system. And it's not like we have 5-6 Cosarts in the upper minors. It's mostly just guys who project as nothing better than No. 4 or No. 5 starters. Still, those guys may be valuable enough to another franchise with depth at other positions.
I could see one of the upper minors pitchers packaged in a Bud Norris trade, and it is quite obvious that Jeff Luhnow and the rest of the front office is exploring every avenue to improve the team. So even though such a swap is rare, a minor league pitcher for a minor league position player trade can't be ruled out. Some pitchers who are normally starters may have to assume bullpen roles moving forward, and not just in situations where a Lancaster starter is promoted to Corpus, either. When minor league cuts begin later in the spring, some spots may open up. Also, I forgot to mention Mike Foltynewicz in comment #81. Luhnow has mentioned that he'll be with Corpus to start off the spring.
I really like him leapfrogging Lancaster since he's coming off an excellent season that probably built up his confidence quite a bit. Hope he takes advantage of the promotion.
Luhnow has also mentioned recently that Folty might start the season in Lancaster. Obtaining Ely, White and Peacock this offseason might have crowded the AAA field directly and the AA field indirectly.
I now have in my possession, the 2013 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Here's the nuts and bolts. I don't want to ruffle BA's feathers, so I will refrain from posting the full reports as they appear in the Handbook. The Astros system is ranked 9th, up from 17th in 2012. They are the 5th-best system in the American League. Top 50 Prospects, in the opinions of 4 BA editors Jim Callis: Carlos Correa #12, Jonathan Singleton #30 J.J. Cooper: Singleton #18, Correa #27, George Springer #49 Will Lingo: Correa #11, Singleton #18, Springer #28 John Manuel: Correa #9, Singleton #15, Springer #30, Lance McCullers #40 Top Prospects by League This section is formed using the opinions of the managers of their respective leagues. The managers put more emphasis on current performance than the scouts. That's why Carlos Correa is not on the Appy League list. Texas League: Singleton #5, Jarred Cosart #19 California League: Springer #2 South Atlantic League: Mike Foltynewicz #11, Delino DeShields #12 New York-Penn League: Vince Velasquez #14 Appalachian League: Adrian Houser #17 Gulf Coast League: Correa #2, Rio Ruiz #4 And now, what we've all been waiting for. Here are the top 30 prospects in the Houston Astros organization, according to Baseball America, and their grades. 30. Tyler Heineman 45, High 29. Aaron West 50, High 28. Carlos Perez 45, Medium 27. Paul Clemens 45, High 26. Austin Wates 45, Medium 25. Josh Fields 45, Medium 24. Andrew Aplin 45, Medium 23. Brady Rodgers 45, Medium 22. Chia-Jen Lo 50, High 21. Ross Seaton 45, Medium 20. Brett Oberholtzer 45, Medium 19. Rob Rasmussen 45, Medium 18. Brett Phillips 50, High 17. Robbie Grossman 45, Medium 16. Adrian Houser 50, High 15. Jose Cisnero 45, Medium 14. Asher Wojciechowski 50, High 13. Vince Velasquez 50, High 12. Jonathan Villar 50, High 11. Domingo Santana 50, High 10. Nolan Fontana 50, High 9. Nick Tropeano 50, Medium 8. Rio Ruiz 55, Extreme 7. Jarred Cosart 55, High 6. Delino DeShields 55, High 5. Mike Foltynewicz 55, High 4. Lance McCullers 65, Extreme 3. George Springer 65, High 2. Jonathan Singleton 65, Medium 1. Carlos Correa 70, High I pre-ordered the Handbook through Baseball America and received a supplement with one extra prospect report. That belonged to.... Kevin Chapman. There are a lot of 45s in that list. However, BA seemed to be a little more stingy in handing out 50s to prospects this year. At-a-glance By grade: 1 70 3 65s 4 55s 10 50s 12 45s By risk: 2 Extreme 16 High 12 Medium By position: 14 RHP 2 LHP 2 C 1 1B 1 2B 3 SS 1 3B 1 LF 4 CF 1 RF 19 prospects were homegrown. 8 from college, 9 from high school, and 2 international free agents (Cisnero and Lo). 11 were acquired. 10 through trades, and Josh Fields from the Rule 5 draft. 8 were formerly top 10 prospects in other organizations in previous editions of the Prospect Handbook. Chia-Jen Lo made his return to the Handbook after dropping out in 2012. He was #26 in the 2011 edition. Lo is the only player on this year's list to make a re-appearance after dropping out. Owing to the dramatic overhaul of the minor league system, there are 15 new names on the list. 10 from 2012 dropped out, 2 (J.B. Shuck and Juan Abreu) are now with different organizations, and 3 (Rhiner Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez [the Rule 5 picks], and Dallas Keuchel) graduated to the majors. Dropouts: Telvin Nash, Jake Buchanan, Ariel Ovando, R.J. Alaniz, Jorge De Leon, Jio Mier, Tanner Bushue, Mike Kvasnicka, Jack Armstrong, Chris Wallace Telvin Nash dropped out of the list altogether after being ranked #10 in 2012. He was the biggest drop overall. Despite dropping out, Mier and Ovando were mentioned in "The 32nd Team." See post #69. Paul Clemens had the biggest drop while still remaining on the list, from #5 in 2012 to #27 in 2013. Jose Cisnero jumped from #26 to #15 despite a reduction in his grade from 50/High in 2012 to 45/Medium. Vince Velasquez was the biggest mover, up to #13 from #27 a year ago. He retained his 50 grade, but also had his risk grade decrease from "Extreme" to "High." Jonathan Villar had the biggest grade drop, from 65/High to only a 50, while retaining his "High" risk grade. Carlos Perez also suffered a reduction in both grades, going from 55/High to 45/Medium. Domingo Santana retained a "High" risk grade while dropping from a 60 in 2012 to a 50 in 2013. As we all know, Rob Rasmussen is no longer a part of the system after being sent to the Dodgers for John Ely. Brad Peacock was the #4 prospect in the Athletics system, and Max Stassi was #14. As a comparison, here is my top 30. I should probably leave the rankings (and the analysis) to the experts. See posts #26 and 28-32 in this thread. 30. Teoscar Hernandez 29. Chia-Jen Lo 28. Joe Musgrove 27. Brett Phillips 26. Kenny Long 25. Josh Fields 24. Brady Rodgers 23. Tyler Heineman 22. Jio Mier 21. Robbie Grossman 20. Preston Tucker 19. Aaron West 18. Vince Velasquez 17. Carlos Perez 16. Andrew Aplin 15. Asher Wojciechowski 14. Adrian Houser 13. Nolan Fontana 12. Ariel Ovando 11. Jonathan Villar 10. Rio Ruiz 9. Nick Tropeano 8. Domingo Santana 7. Mike Foltynewicz 6. Jarred Cosart 5. Delino DeShields 4. Lance McCullers 3. George Springer 2. Jonathan Singleton 1. Carlos Correa
Freaking sweat man. You're awesome for posting this! They covered this in an AskBA a few weeks ago. Villar specifically actually.
That adjustment they did to Santana's score really makes the rankings look goofy. Santana and Fontana are relatively opposites: high ceiling/low floor vs medium ceiling/medium floor. But their scores are the same in the book. I don't think you could argue that Fontana has the same level upside as Santana.
I'd guess ceiling really refers to a likely ceiling rather than absolute, and while Fontana has a much higher floor, they may be equally likely to reach their max potential.
That'd sure be a curious way to do those rankings. I still don't understand why DDJ and Santana have gotten dinged in their prospect status over the last year by the national media when they put up either breakout (DDJ) or extremely good-for-his-age (Santana) seasons. Surely no one actually thinks worse of them after this past year.
Most people seem to have elevated DDJ from last year. Santana I can only figure they are freaked out by the strikeouts, which is the big question mark with him. Edit: They really should show floor as well as ceiling. I don't get my copy until the 14th, so I don't know what it says beyond t's posting.
Addendum to positional breakdown: Of the 14 right-handed pitchers that were on the list, 12 are starters, and 2 are relievers. Both lefties on the list are starters. Well, only 1 is still with the organization. Best Tools, according to Baseball America Best Hitter for Average: Jonathan Singleton Best Power Hitter: Carlos Correa (a bit surprising) Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Nolan Fontana Fastest Baserunner: Delino DeShields Best Athlete: George Springer Best Fastball: Lance McCullers Best Curveball: Jarred Cosart Best Slider: Lance McCullers Best Changeup: Nick Tropeano Best Control: Brady Rodgers Best Defensive Catcher: Roberto Pena Best Defensive Infielder: Carlos Correa Best Infield Arm: Carlos Correa Best Defensive Outfielder: George Springer Best Outfield Arm: George Springer Depth Chart Top 2013 Rookie: Singleton, pre-weed Breakout Prospect: Vince Velasquez Sleeper: Michael Feliz Interestingly, Joe Musgrove and Kevin Comer are both being considered as relievers. Jason Stoffel is ranked under Arcenio Leon, who was claimed off waivers by the Brewers in the offseason. At the bottom of the depth chart at catcher is.... Ben Heath. Brandon Barnes is 5th in the ladder at center field. I kept thinking that Alex Gillingham was a lefty. Turns out I've been completely wrong the whole time. Jake Elmore is #2 at 2B. Jorge De Leon was released, and Dayan Diaz signed with the Cubs. Ariel Ovando and Bobby Borchering are now listed as first basemen. However, Borchering is moving back to left field. Although Kevin Chapman was listed in the supplementary section, he probably isn't the new #30 prospect. Brad Peacock could probably knock Fontana from the #10 spot. Draft Analysis Best Pure Hitter: Rio Ruiz Best Power Hitter: Carlos Correa Fastest Runner: Brett Phillips Best Defensive Player: Correa and Andrew Aplin On Correa: On Aplin: Best Fastball: Lance McCullers and Aaron West Best Secondary Pitch: Lance McCullers Best Pro Debut: Preston Tucker, Tyler Heineman, Andrew Aplin, and Kenny Long I don't think that what they did last half-season needs reiterating, do you? Also in this section, Aplin's name was spelled "Alpin." Best Athlete: Correa and Phillips Most Intriguing Background: McCullers, Nolan Fontana, and Jimmy Sinatro (did not sign) McCullers and his dad Fontana's grandfather, Lew Burdette, won 203 games in the majors Sinatro's father Matt was a catcher for the Braves, A's, Tigers, and Mariners. Jimmy is currently at Gonzaga. Closest to the majors: Best Late-Round Pick: The ones who got away: Hunter Virant and C.J. Hinojosa Assessment:
Correction: I am now. I would say that you'll definitely get your money's worth. Ben Badler is currently doing an overview of international signings during the last July 2 signing period. The AL West's reports will come out on Friday.
Sean Feist (@native_astro): BA Podcast: "The Astros could add players and still be the #1 pick in 2014." Ouuuchhhhhhhhhhh!
