I think the Rockets have one of the best offensive systems in the NBA

When other teams can match the rockets pace is when they have the most trouble. ie: Nuggets, Thunder, Spurs, Heat, and clippers. When that happens, the rockets are forced into a half court set where the rockets just force things that cause turnovers and bad shots. Having a 2nd option down low who can also run the floor at the same pace as the rockets would help tremendously.

 

This is quite interesting.

If we approximate the number of shots we take including free throws using our 82.8FGA/game + 0.44 * 25.5FTA/game ... we get 94 shots per game. I know this is not perfect, but let's go with it for the time being for illustration purposes.

A 1.102 XPPS * 94 shots per game would lead to 103.6 points per game, and the difference with 1.047 league average XPPS over the same number of shots would be a 5.2 points per game differential 'EXPECTED' simply based on our shot selection.

That is HUGE!!!

Now if we had a better defensive and rebounding back-up center (see Bima's podcast, Samuel Dalembert), would we be able to improve our defensive XPPS allowed by doing a better job of taking away shots at rim and 3pt shots when Asik is off the floor?

Note we are currently only +3.1 in actual points differential, so we can pretty much approximate our success and play-off aspirations this season to taking the right kind of shots.

Now do you know why the Morey believes teams that play with pace can win in the NBA (even though historically the playoffs are a slow-pace affair and very few fast-paced teams have won the championships)?

If you have a significant points differential based on some reason (in this case, the XPPS from shot selection), then theoretically the faster the pace you play (ie the more possessions per game) the more you magnify your advantage in XPPS.

Offensively we're fine. If we can get a strong defensive/rebounding back-up 5 for Asik, that improves our XPPS allowed, I think we'd be a pretty good bet for the playoffs, and we may potentially even surprise.

Theoretically, that is. As long as we can keep taking the same shots in the playoffs.

Obviously this is a very crude approximation. A shot at rim by Harden with 3 defenders waiting for him may not be better than a mid-range jump shot when he is open, or a 3pt attempt by 2Pat may not be as good as his 15ft mid-range jump shot, or a 3pt jumper by Lin may not be as good as a foot-on-the-line 2pt jumper by him, so the XPPS doesn't take into each player's strength, or how the defensive is playing you. But it's a good look at how the Rockets are achieving its success this year.

 

The Rockets roster is definitely a work in progress We all know that. Speculation about our playoff competitiveness this year and how we match up against the best of the West is interesting, but a little premature.

That said, the Rockets offense is clicking on all cylinders these days. Even in the half court, the starters seem to have effective ball movement to find the open man for the assist. Their half court offensive sets and passing seem much improved over the early part of the season.

If (and that is a big if) the current Rockets shooting maintains at the level we have seen over the last 10 games, the Rockets are going to be a handful for the rest of the season.

 

You are the idiot who thinks a long jumper isnt a bad shot.

 

You realize you just put us on another losing streak by saying that right?

 

a fifteen to twenty foot jump shot isn't a bad a shot, a 22 foot jump shot is

 

From what I can tell, we are viewed as a high powered offensive team. When broadcasters talk about our team, that is usually the first comment they make. All teams have their own style of offense and some are more suited for the playoffs. I agree that anybody can have an opinion on what a good offensive team should look like but if the main objective of offensive possessions is to put that ball in the hoop as often as possible, the science or statistics show that we are at the top.

If we make the playoffs, in my book, that is a humungous achievement based on the majorities expectation of the team - that is mostly due to our offense. I view the playoffs as a great learning opportunity for us and trying to change our offensive philosophy (hit early) from here till then will stunt our growth. Just look at the 7 game losing streak. We tried it and it wasn't for us (at this point in our development).

 

A 15 foot jumper, while not a bad shot for the right player - Paterson for example, is by definition a less effective shot than the 3 point shot and shots at the rim.

LMA showed last night that the 15 foot jumper is highly effective. But then he is a master of them.

 

It was a result of fatigue. Harden has the ability to take over the game but rather than saving it up for the 4rth quarter Mchale decided to run him, Parsons and Lin into the ground. Coupled with the insane back-to-backs it really took a toll on the team.

I have no confidence whatsoever with Mchale's substitution patterns, to be honest I liked Sampson a lot, he had the LOFS after him but he managed PT WAAAY 0better.

 

Substitutions are ****ing weird. You have parsons and harden playing near 40 minutes a night. Harden, especially because of the way he plays, should probably have his minutes reduced. I still have no clue why he won't stagger Lin and hardens minutes more. There is no reason Lin can't play pg with td/Beverly to give him more of a breather

 

This 2pt shots are bad shots is getting a little ridiculous.

Have you watched NBA players in a shoot around. The guys who can shoot 40% 3s can shoot over 50% in practice. These same guys can shoot 80-90% from 15-feet in practice.

On 10 shots, 50% 3s scores 15 pts. 80% from 15ft scores 16pts.

It's really a matter of how easy it is to get open from 3-pt land versus 15-feet. And that the 3 is also a weapon of choice by coaches, because it spreads the floor. It is hard to get an open look at 15-feet, because the defenses do not want a shooter like Harden and Durant to get that close to the basket.

The stats on 15ft shots are based on a tougher look at the basket, often only shot by the tallest plays, who can get that look.

But make no mistake, guys like Nash could hit >80% open looks from 15ft; they just can't get a good look from there.

 

perhaps that was the case in the losing streak...besides we now have pick and pop by Patterson and a lot of driving to the basket..fastbreaks...pretty diverse if you ask me...perhaps even more diverse when asik develops his post game and pass catching abilities

 

this is all great on paper, but just looking at numbers takes away the human factor. and thats one thing that bothers me this season is that the offense doesnt seem to adapt when the 3s arent falling. taking more attempts in order to get them out of the hole, while it may be an efficient shot on paper, doesnt seem to work in those kinda games. perhaps taking some 2s will get the shooters going and narrow the pt differential. it has an immense effect psychologically imo. something pure stats dont account for at all.

why have we dont much better recently? our mid range game. patterson especially has been taking these shots and NOT 3s. lin has been taking a few more 2s, and especially taking LESS 3s. harden's step back j? welcome back. parsons is smart enough that he attacks more when his 3s dont fall. his fake always gets defends to jump, and when he's off he will step in and sink a 2.

 

Would disagree:


Rick would take us to the finals with this roster. End of story.

 

imo i think the problem is that they dont adapt. we've seen what happens when opposing teams pack the paint and our 3s dont fall. it almost certainly results in a loss. with a robust mid range game, we can keep the game close and get people more confident in their shot. that's why we always get in deep holes early. turn overs and trying to claw our way out by shooting so many 3s... a stable mid range game in those instances may keep the game from getting away from us. but i have not really seen that this entire season. imo we need to talk more about the mental aspects of the game, and shooting more 2s plays a big part in that for obvious reasons.

 

It's the "whoever-has-the-ball-in-his-hands-has-the-green-light-to-go-nuts- and-if-he-hits-a-dead-end-give-the-next-guy-a-shot" offense.

'ya gotta love it'!

 

so true!

 

This system will work in the playoffs if we have someone to throw the ball to in the post late in the shot clock. In the playoffs the pace slows and there are more shots taken very late in the shot clock which is the lowest percentage shot you can take. We MUST either acquire a low post scorer/rebounder or develop one by the playoffs if we are to advance.