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Putting the McHale Coaching Malcontents to Rest (Hopefully)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jtr, Feb 7, 2013.

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  1. tor.rocks

    tor.rocks Member

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    This didn't do nothing for the argument.
     
    #81 tor.rocks, Feb 8, 2013
  2. jtr

    jtr Member

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    Not only do coaches show no statistically significant difference in team performance, timeouts also do not produce any statistically significant change in the games.

    Serguei Saavedra, a statistical physicist at Northwestern University, and his colleagues collected official scoring and timeout data from the NBA website. Because the NBA provided play-by-play recaps for all of the games, the researchers could compare scoring differentials before and after timeouts were called.

    With data from 3,000 NBA games dating back to 2009, Saavedra and his team found no evidence that supposedly critical timeouts could lift trailing teams to victory. In fact, the statistical analysis revealed that teams with big leads racked up even more points after time outs were called.

    The team analyzed three seasons for 30 different NBA teams, giving them a sample of 90 individual seasons. They found that 78 of these 90 seasons displayed no statistically significant correlation between timeouts and changes in scoring differential. There's a very good chance that randomly-timed timeouts could have led to the same scores.

    To be fair, timeouts may be more important at different times in the game. Towards the end of the game, for instance, coaches will call a number of timeouts to take advantage of every remaining second on the clock. Did these fourth quarter timeouts help decide the winner?

    No, say the researchers. Even after accounting for different quarters, there was still no significant correlation between timeouts and score changes. Furthermore, teams with higher payrolls weren't able to capitalized on timeouts any better than teams with lower payrolls.
     
    #82 jtr, Feb 8, 2013
  3. jocar

    jocar Member

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    Smith demoted to garbage time? :confused: (Mcfail racist :mad:)
     
    #83 jocar, Feb 8, 2013
  4. adobo

    adobo Member

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    I didnt click on the link so didn't read the whole article, but from your summary it seems your saying that coaches role has no effect on player and team performance? That is hard to believe.

    Imagine a business that is competing on a market where there are other businesses offering the same quality of products and services. You don't think a talented executive will have better results than an average exec if it had the same employees and resources at its disposal?

    Talented executive compared to an average exec would usually be superior at the following:
    - They are able to motivate there employees and create a great culture in the organization.
    - They are able to set clear long and short term goals/strategy which the whole organization clearly understands.
    - Able to distinguish who are your top performers and ensure they are utilised correctly. Seek the high potentials and insure to invest to train them up to become future top performers. Cut off the low performers.
    -Hire other smart execs around him.
    etc...

    But at the end of the day, the exec by himself can't make the business successful. He is limited to the talent he has in the business and also luck. But to say they dont make a difference, is just plain...:rolleyes:
     
    #84 adobo, Feb 8, 2013
  5. roxxy

    roxxy Member

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    McHale is a young coach that is still learning & this is a young team that is still learning. I also doubt McHale will be the coach of this team when they are actually in a position to contend.
     
    #85 roxxy, Feb 8, 2013
  6. pacmania

    pacmania Member

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    Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

    Anyway, granting there is not much impact a coach has on the game, why does the organization have to reward Morey's friend who used to play for the Celtics with holding a high paying coaching position? Why not just reward someone from the Clutch era like Olajuwon, Horry , Elie , etc.

    Based on resume', what criteria was used to select the coach considering all coaches available in the market?
     
    #86 pacmania, Feb 8, 2013
  7. just a word

    just a word Member

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    lmao, the blazers boards are calling for their coaches head, not rotating properly and so forth. Most of it sounds familiar, just replace the coaches' name.
     
    #87 just a word, Feb 8, 2013
  8. jtr

    jtr Member

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    The great thing about statistics is that it allows us to get beyond the grey veil of our "eye tests" and move to where we can actually assess the facts. Basically what the article states is that the best HOF coaches (Jackson and POP) are statistically a small amount better than the absolute worst coaches in the league. But if you compare them to an "average" coach there is basically no difference. The sample used in the study was 10 years of NBA data.

    The interesting thing is that I am coming gradually closer to defining the effect of a coach on NBA basketball. The only piece left is the rotations. Then can I put this to bed?
     
    #88 jtr, Feb 8, 2013
  9. jtr

    jtr Member

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    Almost all fans use the "eye test". Unfortunately that has been repeatedly shown to be subject to significant error.
     
    #89 jtr, Feb 8, 2013
  10. Rip Van Rocket

    Rip Van Rocket Contributing Member

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    McHale will get an opportunity with the fully rebuilt team. No reason to make a change until he has the players to really contend. If we underachieve after team has been rebuilt, then a change may happen. So far, McHale has done a masterful job with the team and has them competing for a playoff berth long before anyone thought possible. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a contract extension and is named coach of the year.
     
    #90 Rip Van Rocket, Feb 8, 2013
  11. jtr

    jtr Member

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    IMHO the contract extension is assured. COTY? Doubtful, but he certainly should be considered. He has done a hell of a job.
     
    #91 jtr, Feb 8, 2013
  12. formido

    formido Member

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    No, there were some who expected Houston to be this good, even a little better. I did. The website NBA Geek predicted 50 wins. Daryl Morey indicated repeatedly before the season that he expected a play-off birth this year. You may have had unreasonably low expectations but not everyone did.
     
    #92 formido, Feb 8, 2013
  13. cfansnet

    cfansnet Member

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    Good point, but it's not just fans. Many players, GMs and even coaches often rely on the "eye test" instead of stats.
     
    #93 cfansnet, Feb 8, 2013
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