Sam Amico: Rockets have a "keen eye" on Danny Granger

Danny Granger is an overrated player on this board. He's been declining for several years, and it's only rational to assume he will return from injury even worse than he left. Not to mention he wasn't some superstar to begin with - he's an inefficient scorer who's average at best in most other categories.

He's a slight upgrade from Parsons now, but in a year or two he won't be. And at his price, I don't understand why he'd be such a target.

We should be focusing on upgrades at PF first, PG second and C/SF only if we can acquire an all-star caliber player (i.e. Horford) who isn't too old.

 

Morey is wet for Granger like he was wet for Kmart and we all know what happened after that... He always gets his man.....................................................Eventually.

 

Trading for Granger at this point will mean Rockert heading directly to lottery...perhaps after the season. You are going to see some disruption in the chemistry of the team and not to mention his playing condition. Just a risky proposition if you ask me.

 

No, rockets can get a much better player

 

I guess he gets to the line reasonably well, but his shooting from the field has been steadily decreasing (from 44.7% to 42.8% to 42.5% to 41.6%) over the past few years, as has the rest of his game.

And taking 15.2 shots to get to 18.7 pts isn't horrible but it's not good, either. He lacks the explosiveness and ball handling ability at this juncture of his career to create shots consistently, making him overly jumper reliant - and he's a streaky shooter at best.

 

I agree, hell to the no!

 

No to Granger.......Yes to Iggy!!!!:grin:
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Granger's TS% of 54.2% last year, in comparison, is similar to the following high usage players: Horford, Lillard, Conley, Garnett, Dragic. Also, he shot this in a system that plays slow half court game, not in a running style where everyone gets a breakaway layup now and then.

 

To clarify to CF, Granger is not the same person as Gay

 

Exactly!

He costs a LOT less, and he can actually play basketball.

 

For yo' information guys, thought I'd give a little explanation as to who Granger is:

You all know Granger is a great shooter of course. That's where he makes his money. Jump shots, three's and Granger is decent at getting to the line. Not anywhere near someone like Harden, but he's not frightened of contact like Rudy Gay for instance.

Granger can play the 4 no problem defensively but the problem is his rebounding. Granger certainly has the ability to rebound because of his strenth but like many poor rebounders he tends to ball watch while the opposing player gets position on him. It is why he can't spend any signifigant time at the four.

They could run a few lineups with him at the four but not prolonged. An example of Danny's success at the four was in a game last season versus the Knicks. The Knicks had 'Melo at the 4 and he just destroyed West all game. On the other end Carmelo had the strenth and size to handle West, so the matchup ended up being a nightmare. BY the 4th the game was over. Vogel switched Granger to the 4, and it immediately turned the game around. Granger dropped 16, defended Carmelo fine, held his own on the boards and the Pacers ended up winning the game droping 40 points in the 4th. That type of thing could work. Had it gone on the whole game tho, I think the Knicks would of found a way to crash the boards and really caused the Pacers some major problems.

Granger is a poor ball handler who likes to go right. He's sure with the ball over and will the rarely turn it over unless he gets called for an offensive foul. He likes to lead with his forearm sometimes and once smaller players are basically stiff armed in the ground officials usually call it. (you laugh but he gets away with it a lot, kind of ridiculous I think it is a foul everytime and if I was an opposing fan I'd throw a ****fit).

Granger is also a poor passer. He'll never be the guy finding the open man. However, Granger is very unselfish and likes to get other players involved. So it's strictly a problem with him being an untalented passer versus selfish.

Granger's defense is "good" in the strict sense of the word. He has very good footwork, long arms (he'll block a shot now and then) and quick hands. His speed is his biggest problem. He's probably the slowest SF in the league. His footwork allows him to compensate somewhat, but that's how you'll see him get beat. Either off crossovers, slow rotations, or slow recovery time to open shooters. His strength is his best asset as it keeps driving opponents from creating space and he rarely ever gets posted up. And when they do they're never successful.

Granger is also a good 4th quarter performer having hit big shots his entire career. He doesn't have a lot of fame for this because he just never had any business being a number one scorer. He always should have been a number two, playing off of someone more dynamic such as Harden. In Houston, you'd see him hit a lot of big shots playing off of Harden. Harden would like Granger.

Granger is no stat stuffer, just a scorer and defender. Nothing special, but a very solid asset that would make the Houston much better.

The defense would improve for Houston so long as you could find a defensive four to play with Asik, Houston would turn into sort of a mirror of Indiana/Memphis now. A great defensive team, only you'd guys have the offensive power of Harden. I think it'd be a real good team. Get Harden to buy in defensively somehow (is that possible?) and maybe trade Lin for a better point. Anywho.

That is all. Ask away.

 

trade for james harden

 

Huge glaring red flags. 29 + season long knee injury. Pass.

 

Id prefer cap flexibility. That and we don't know what form he's going to be in, I don't want a Roy/tmac situation where you don't know if he can play some nights or minute restrictions. Plus it would kill our chemistry.

 

Thank you!

 

I would personally prefer Parsons over Granger at this point. We need an upgrade at PF not SF. Just sayin..

 

Let's take a look at how a couple of different Danny Granger-to-Houston trades would impact Houston's cap flexibility and its 2013-14 payroll. That's really the big question here.

First of all, Danny Granger is going to turn thirty years old in two and a half months, is coming off a serious injury, is very expensive both this season and next season, and is only under team control through the end of the 2013-14 season. All of these items combined results in a drastic reduction in his trade value and we should all realize this. In other words, Indiana is not going to have to give up any of its key starters (James Harden, Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin), any of its prized inexpensive players on rookie contracts (Marcus Morris, Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones), any of its super dirt-cheap, super low risk/medium upside guys (Greg Smith, Patrick Beverly, James Anderson), or any draft picks in order to acquire Granger.

Houston would assemble a package around three or four of the following players:

Carlos Delfino
Patrick Patterson
Royce White
Toney Douglas
Cole Aldrich

Houston has about $7 mil in cap space right now, so it can absorb $7 mil in salaries. [If this $7 mil number is incorrect, somebody please let me know.] In other words, Houston can take back Danny Granger ($13.1 mil salary in 2012-13) and a couple of very low salary dudes making a combined $0.9 mil--that's $14 mil in salaries coming back from Indiana--so long as they trade away at least $7 mil in salaries to Indiana.

I'd like to think that Daryl Morey would like to hold on to Carlos Delfino, as he's been terrific for Houston this season and there is seemingly no one who can step right in and assume his role. He's also very inexpensive and is easily outperforming his $3 mil contract, and will likely easily outperform the $3 mil that he'll get next season if the team option is exercised. Given the difference in salary between him and Granger, he is arguably more valuable than Granger, although Morey may feel differently.

Here are the two trades that I believe Morey is willing to do with Indiana, if Morey is truly interested in trading for Granger:

Trade #1 (the preferred trade):

Patrick Patterson, Royce White, Toney Douglas, and Cole Aldrich (about $8.3 mil in combined 2012-13 salaries, I believe) to Indiana

Danny Granger and three dirt-cheap dudes whose contracts all expire at the end of the season (Jeff Pendergraph, Ben Hansbrough, Sam Young; don't get excited about these dudes, please, they won't be on the roster in 2013-14, and I seriously doubt they will play for Houston, ever) (these four guys make about $14.8 mil in combined 2012-13 salaries, I believe) to Houston

Trade #2 (the backup option):

Patrick Patterson, Carlos Delfino, and Cole Aldrich (about $7.5 mil in combined 2012-13 salaries, I believe) to Indiana

Danny Granger and two dirt-cheap dudes (Ben Hansbrough, Sam Young) (about $14.0 mil in combined 2012-13 salaries, I believe) to Houston

Obviously Trade #1 is much better because you upgrade from Patterson to Granger (hopefully this is a big upgrade, that's the idea behind a trade for Granger), you replace Douglas with Beverly (which you plan on doing in 2013-14, anyway, if not sooner), you return Greg Smith to the rotation (I am assuming that Cole Aldrich is only playing ahead of Smith right now so as to showcase Aldrich to potential trade partners leading up to the trade deadline), and you get rid of the ridiculous Royce White. So Trade #1, assuming Granger is able to return to form relatively quickly, results in fairly significant improvement from a basketball/on-the-court standpoint. But how does Trade #1 impact Indiana in 2013-14 from a financial standpoint?

I am basically plagarizing from Bima Thug's article from a month or so ago here (thanks again for your work) and if any of these numbers are off, please correct me, Bima (or somebody). Let's assume the 2013-14 salary cap remains at $58.044 million. Houston will have approximately $55.0 million in team salary for the 2013-14 season: Granger ($14.02 million, I believe), Harden ($13.67 million), Lin ($8.37 million), Asik ($8.37 million), Delfino ($3 million, non-guaranteed if waived by June 30, 2013), Morris ($1.99 million), Jones ($1.55 million), Motiejunas ($1.42 million), Parsons ($926,500), Smith ($884,293, non-guaranteed), Beverly (I am estimating $850,000 here, but I don't know if this is exactly right or not, so please correct me if it's not; I do believe that it's non-guaranteed), and Anderson (I'm estimating $850,000 here, as well, and again, if this is off, please correct me; I am assuming that this is non-guaranteed).

This means that, after filling out the roster with three super-cheap, super-low risk, medium upside guys (as is Morey's habit), the Rockets payroll should be about $1.5 mil below the cap, which means that Houston cannot sign any free agents (besides minimum salary types). I suppose he could decline the team option on Delfino but what would be the point? That only gets Houston about $4.5 mil below the cap and it's not like you're really going to find somebody better (or even as good, most likely) as Delfino with that kind of money.

The point here is that if Houston trades for Danny Granger, then Houston is NOT going to be a player in free agency, nor will it be able to absorb a big salary (or a large portion of a big salary) via trade from a team looking to dump payroll.

So the question here for Houston is about opportunity cost. Even if you like Granger, and are able to get him basically for free (Trade #1 is pretty close to getting the guy for free), you are still sacrificing the ability to acquire a relatively expensive ($7+ mil in 2013-14 salary) in the free agent market. So does Houston really want to make that sacrifice? For Danny Granger? Tough call for Houston.

I will say that if Granger bounces back and plays well down the stretch for Houston, then Houston can always trade Granger during the offseason and get somebody/something valuable. For example, maybe Indiana likes Granger, and would much rather pay Granger $14 mil total (in one season) than Paul Millsap $40+ mil total (over four seasons). Utah would, therefore, maybe be willing to sign-and-trade Millsap to Houston for Granger, straight up. However, there is no question that Houston's ability to make things happen in the trade/free agent market will be negatively impacted by trading for Granger.

Finally, I should also point out that Houston may really like the fact that Granger is not a long term financial commitment. Houston may view Granger as a guy who makes them quite a bit better for a season and a half, and who they can them let walk in the summer of 2014, which results in a lot of cap flexibility, and the ability to pursue a big name, big money 2014 free agent. So if Morey trades for Granger here, this is a big factor in his thought process, for sure. Don't forget that Lebron James will for sure opt out of his contract with the Miami Heat during the summer of 2014 (although obviously he may simply sign another huge long term contract with Miami immediately thereafter), and it really is not that absurd to think that he will look at Houston as one of his best options. Houston would provide him with an excellent supporting cast, excellent management, excellent ownership, and one of the five largest metropolitan areas in the United States. I would be willing to bet a large amount of money that Lebron will sign with one of the following four teams during the summer of 2014: Miami, Cleveland, Houston, or the Los Angeles Lakers. My guess is that he signs with the Lakers (not sure why this isn't being widely speculated, as it seems completely obvious to me that this is what the Lakers are shooting for) but Houston has a legit shot, in my opinion.