[Obama's economy] US GDP shrinks in Q4 2012, despite $165 B Fed stimulus

You sure put the nail in that straw man. Get back to me when you can answer what I actually said instead of the s*** you made up in your head..

 

"Is anyone else tired of republicans gloating over a struggling economy that their polices created and their obstruction has prolonged?"

FB meme

 

that ship sailed to a reelected and emboldened President Obama.

scoreboard!

 

Shiller has done interesting work. I love that he is at the intersection of psychology and economics---not a place many people venture to (though I must admit, one of my academic and occupational interests).

irrational exuberance!

As for the rest, I mostly agree with you. Asset reflation and the effect of inflation on easing debt payments are one of the reasons why I am strongly for conventional and unconventional monetary easing. I completely subscribe to the notion of this latest recession being largely a balance sheet recession (why I frequently mention debt deleveraging)---and I point to 90s-2000s Japan as a more realistic bogeyman for those who would have Weimar Republic-like fears.

With that said, while you seem to believe trade deficits are exogenous---I would argue they are endogenous. Trade deficits began to accelerate with the rampant price increases of oil throughout the 70s---but I would argue that the policies of the 80s-2000s (starting most prominently with the conversion of bank partnerships into massive publicly traded corporations, therefore flipping risk from bank partners to public equity holders) helped to inflate a situation where credit became a patch-all to many societal problems, while serving to grossly engorge the largest banks. This credit naturally reinforced the intrinsic American need to consume, and coupled with more "growth by credit consumption" instead of "growth by productivity", led America to import tons of goods to feed its' credit-driven hunger.

This coupled with the Asian tigers---that for whatever reason (I've heard Ricardian equivalence with bequests, Keynesian liquidity constraint, the life-cycle hypothesis, "culture", post-war effects, the permanent income hypothesis---the whole gamut. Explaining high Asian savings rates is a bit like playing a game of Russian roulette)---are high savings nations---and you have the current imbalance that some will argue is the most dire long-term economic threat faced by mankind, while others will argue that it just looks messy on balance of payments sheets.

Certainly, the "global search for yield" triggered by Asian high savings rate lenders flooding out to low savings rate countries can be attributed to worsening the current dilemma of credit cycles, so you can place me (very tentatively, and without "end of the world pomp) in the former camp. A bit of an aside I suppose, but it's always interesting (to me at least) to share perspectives.

 

What we clearly need is more debts, deficits, money printing, and inflation. There is absolutely nothing wrong with $1 Trillion dollar deficits every year - it is not like interest rates could ever rise!

Spoiler

What this economy really needs is a made up alien invasion!

Spoiler

Or to try to reinflate another housing bubble.

Spoiler

Or to start another war.

Spoiler

All glory to Paul Krugman

 

Yields (interest rates) on Treasuries are rising---actually, somewhat an intended effect of QE3. Economic growth leads to risk-on, which leads to shifts from fixed income (bonds) to equities and other riskier ventures (shares). With greater economic risk, comes (the potential) of greater economic return.

Consequently, because of the underlying perception (if not reality) of an economy pulling all of the right moves, Treasury yields that have been pushed down artificially by a flight to safety are ironically enough rebounding back up.

Given the notion of the possibility of a self-fulfilling prophecy in the markets (a very behavioral econ view of things, I must admit), I would argue that the yield increase will soon be offset by economic growth.

Debt dynamics 101.

Conversely, if the economy contracts, Treasury yields will paradoxically reduce.

it's kinda a win-win for Treasury, if one looks at it that way.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-30/treasury-yields-close-to-9-month-high-amid-auction-fed.html

 

Obama approval up to 60 percent: National poll

The high rating coincides with a period of assertiveness by Obama. He has unveiled a sweeping plan to curtail gun violence, and called for sweeping immigration reform. The President’s second inaugural address contained strong support for gay rights and marriage equality, calls for action on human-caused climate change, and the inaugural appeal for social justice since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1937 second inaugural.

 

you need to catch up texxx

 

Here's the explosive growth of government consumption & investment of which Commodorebassokierock are warning us that occurred since the great recession (2008), with the Bush years as a control group

You are idiots.

Regards.

 

wouldn't payroll tax reciepts be a fast and accurate way to measure employment, rather than surveys?

 

Nice chart Sam and thanks for the idiot comment.

So, why don't you post where the chart comes from and exactly how those numbers were calculated?

 

Sure, it comes from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the federal bureau that calcualates GDP, trade balances, personal income - basically every major official economic statisitic other than employment.

Here is their gov't expenditrue stats:

http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/GovView.asp

Why does it matter? Do you have access to some alternative source of information or any reason to question the BEA? You don't, of course. This is a good manifestation of why you are an idiot that you'd pretend otherwise.

 

Overall strong data and bullish response in the markets today. Great news for the nation, separate from any petty politics. (e.g. OP expressing glee at a bad quarterly number.)

The strong advance followed reports on the job market, the manufacturing sector, construction spending and consumer sentiment, which all pointed to a healthy economic recovery.

The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs last month, fewer than the 180,000 economists were expecting, but investors were encouraged by the government's revisions to its 2012 data. The revisions showed that the economy added 335,000 more jobs in 2012 than originally reported.

"The revisions point to a fairly healthy 181,000 per month trend in 2012, which is more than strong enough over time to bring down the unemployment rate," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/01/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?iid=Lead

 

Yea it is pretty rough out there! I got a job right away out of school (2010), received a bonus each year and have gotten a 15% raise from my opening salary. This year my pay check comes in a little bit lower, but that's fine as log as it is going to someone who could really use it. After rent, car payment, dining and purhases of my choice (2-3 times a week), and contributions to my 401k...I still am able to save about 1600/month. God forbid I give a little back to the country that gave me this opportunity because let me tell you I am really roughing it!!

 

We haven't had any of this yet.

Why don't we worry about the actual problem we have NOW (which also creates FUTURE problems due to the devastating effects of long term problems) instead of the problems we DO NOT HAVE NOW and the future problems that are a fraction of many possible FUTURE outcomes?

Reminder - guys like you, for the last 3-5 years, were telling us we'd have Greece-babwe hyperinflation by now.

Why should I trust what YOU will think happen in the future, when your track record is of being not just wrong, but SPECTACULARLY wrong?

 

it's grotesque that anyone would take shot at thePOTUS rather cooperate and come together for solutions. grotesque and treasonous.

 

remember when dissent was the highest form of patriotism?

now it's treason...

Record number on food stamps, record number on disability, median household income declining every single year, negative growth, high unemployment, high gas prices. It's amazing how this is now accepted as the new normal.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-wont-get-back-to-full-employment-until-2022/

 

get a grip, dissent is necessary. but, it's all obama's/bush's fault is utter stupidity. congress needs to get their asses together and do what they were elected to do.